SLIDE 1 Is it different this time? Can the jobs boom last?
Challenges for employment and skills while Brexit and government uncertainty goes on (and on)
Paul Bivand AD Statistics & Analysis, Learning & Work Institute Duncan Melville Chief Economist, Learning & Work Institute
10 July 2019
SLIDE 2
State of the labour market 2019
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Employment, unemployment and inactivity rates (aged 16-64)
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Underemployment and labour market slack
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Labour costs and productivity
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Regions: employment rates
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Flows in the labour market
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Job starters from unemployment or inactivity
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Flow rates out of employment
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Labour market flows in 2018
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Are disadvantaged employment gaps closing?
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People aged 16-24
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Single parents
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People aged 50-64
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People with disabilities
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How is the Work and Health programme doing? Starts to Feb 19
SLIDE 17 The Work and Health Programme – what was planned – job outturn
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Months since start Planned Outturn
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People with low qualifications
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Social tenants
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Black & minority ethnic people
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Employment rates for UK-born have been rising as well as migrants
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Looking at employment rate gaps and workless migrants
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Job quality
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Self-employment rising over time
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Involuntary temporary and part-time working
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Growth in occupations
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Occupations – 10-year summary
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Training intensity - by age
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Earnings growth: stayers and changers
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PROSPECTS
SLIDE 31 Summary of OBR and Consensus forecast
2018 Outturn OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus OBR Consensus GDP growth (%) 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 Unemployment Rate (Q4,%) 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 Employment Growth (%) 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
- Slow economic growth
- Stable and low unemployment rate
- Declining and slow employment growth
SLIDE 32 Uncertainty at very high levels
100 200 300 400 500 600
UK Uncertainty
SLIDE 33 Risks to the UK economic outlook
- Brexit uncertainty, especially No Deal
- Trade Wars / Protectionism
- Weakening Global Conditions
- Constraints on Policy Responses
- Time – late stage of the Cycle
SLIDE 34
POLICY
SLIDE 35 Proactive Policy Package - Employment
- Recently employed – activation, job
search assistance.
- For those more distant from work:
– Re-legitimised Work Trials – FJF / subsidised labour hiring – Training, especially with practical on the job element
SLIDE 36 Proactive Policy Package – Automatic Stabilisers
- Universal credit payments not delayed
- Policies triggered by a measure of (local)
economic conditions:
– Direct payments to individuals – Additional local government funding – Public infrastructure fund for small projects
