North American Pulp and Paper Outlook SEPTEMBER 2019 ROD YOUNG - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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North American Pulp and Paper Outlook SEPTEMBER 2019 ROD YOUNG - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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North American Pulp and Paper Outlook SEPTEMBER 2019 ROD YOUNG Chief Economist 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation 1 Global economy growing moderately, risks heightened Europe USA 2.5 % 1.9 % 1.8 % 2.9 % 2.6 % China 1.4 %

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SLIDE 1

North American Pulp and Paper Outlook

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation 1

SEPTEMBER 2019 ROD YOUNG Chief Economist

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SLIDE 2

Global economy growing moderately, risks heightened

2019 | Fastmarkets | Macroeconomic Outlook

1.6 % 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 1.1 % 1.8 % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USA

1.9 % 2.5 % 1.8 % 1.1 % 0.9 % 1.4 % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Europe

6.7 % 6.9 % 6.6 % 6.2 % 6.0 % 6.1 % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

China

  • 0.9 %

1.1 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 1.7 % 2.8 % 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Latin America Annual real GDP growth

2

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SLIDE 3

US job growth continues

  • 800
  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Employment change Six-mo. mov. avg. (employment change) 24-mo. mov. avg. (employment change)

2019 | Fastmarkets | Macroeconomic Outlook 3

Monthly employment change, total non-farm, thousands; six-month moving average; 24-month moving average

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SLIDE 4

Dollar regained strength in 2018, remains strong

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

4

Trade weighted US dollar index: broad, goods, 1997=100

2019 | Fastmarkets | Macroeconomic Outlook

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SLIDE 5

Chinese GDP trending lower, 2019 a slowdown

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

5

Real GDP growth, annual percentage change

2019 | Fastmarkets | Macroeconomic Outlook

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SLIDE 6

Global P&W demand dropped 2.5% in 2018

2.5

Million tonnes of demand decline in 2018

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

  • 12%
  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Thousands of tonnes World P&W demand %ch

12%

Smaller global market in 2018 versus 2010

1.6

Millions tonnes of average demand declines in 2011-2017 and 2012-2014

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SLIDE 7

Is global graphic paper demand accelerating down?

TONNAGE DECLINES STILL NOT SHRINKING DESPITE GREATLY DIMINISHED MARKETS

7 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

  • 3,500
  • 3,000
  • 2,500
  • 2,000
  • 1,500
  • 1,000
  • 500

Thousands of tonnes

Printing & writing

Tonnage decline % of 2010 demand level 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

  • 2,500
  • 2,000
  • 1,500
  • 1,000
  • 500

Thousands of tonnes

Newsprint

Tonnage decline % of 2010 demand level

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SLIDE 8

P&W Demand Growth in 2019-2021

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation 8

Thousand Tonnes, Percentage Per Year

  • 6.58

Million Tonnes

  • 2.3%

Average Percent Change

Three-Year Total Global Growth

  • 7.2%
  • 1.8% -3.6% -4.0%
  • 6.9%

17 18 19 20 21

NORTH AMERICA

0.1%

  • 0.6%

0.5% 0.9%

  • 1.0%

17 18 19 20 21

LATIN AMERICA

  • 5.3%
  • 4.6% -4.8% -4.6% -4.7%

17 18 19 20 21

OCEANIA

1.6%

  • 1.8%
  • 0.6% -0.5% -1.5%

17 18 19 20 21

ASIA

0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 17 18 19 20 21

AFRICA

3.2%

  • 7.4%
  • 1.2% 0.5%

0.3% 17 18 19 20 21

MIDDLE EAST

  • 1.6%
  • 4.5% -4.0% -3.4%
  • 5.4%

17 18 19 20 21

EUROPE

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SLIDE 9

Global ADD/CVD duties on cut size copy paper

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation 9

ADD DATES

Australia Austria 21.6% 2018 Finland 16.9% 2018 Russia 4.2% 2018 Slovakia 17.4% 2018 South Korea 34.2% 2018 China 3.1% to 34.4% 2017 Indonesia 12.6% to 45.1% 2017 Brazil 2.9% 2017 Thailand 13.4% to 23.2% 2017 Pakistan Japan 39.1% 2018 Brazil 35.9% 2018 China 21.9% 2018 Thailand 2% 2018 Indonesia 10.62% to 20.66% 2018

ADD CVD DATES

USA Australia Paper 222% 2015 Suzano 17% 2015 Navigator (1) 1.75% 2015 APRIL Indonesia (2) 2% 4% 2015 APP Indonesia 17% 109% 2015 Asia Symbol 84% 7% 2015 APP China 149% 7% 2015 UPM China 149% 177% 2015 Sun Paper China 149% 177% 2015 India Indonesia $855/tonne minimum price 2018 Thailand $855/tonne minimum price 2018 Singapore $855/tonne minimum price 2018 Mexico Brazil 38% 2013

1) Navigator tariff changed from 8% to 37%, then back down to 1.75% in October 2018. 2) APRIL Indonesia ADD revised up from 2% in March 2019.

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SLIDE 10

Despite tariffs, cut size imports back near peak market share in USA

22.5%

Offshore share of US cut size in 2014

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Thousands of tonnes

US cut size demand by source

Domestic supply Offshore imports Offshore import share (R.)

12.9%

Offshore share of US cut size in 2018

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SLIDE 11

Effect of tariffs on US cut size imports

IMPORTS FROM NON-TARIFF COUNTRIES

11 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

IMPORTS FROM FIVE TARIFF TARGET COUNTRIES

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Share of US demand Thousand tonnes Portugal Indonesia China/Hong Kong Brazil Australia Five-country import share 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 50 100 150 200 250 300 Share of US demand Thousand tonnes Israel South Korea Finland Thailand Colombia All others Import share

2019 estimated based on 5 months of US customs data.

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SLIDE 12

Indonesia shifting US exports to rolls after tariff hike

50%

Share for rolls for Indonesian exports to USA in 2019

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 50 100 150 200 250 Thousand tonnes Cut size Offset rolls Other (rolls or sheets) Rolls share of total (R.)

2019 estimated based on 5 months of US customs data.

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SLIDE 13

Global coated paper machine shuts/conversions, 2019-2020

COMPANY MILL COUNTRY CAPACITY (TONNES/YR) DATE COMMENTS Arctic Paper Grycksbo Sweden

  • 45,000 CFS

Q1 2019 Shut PM7 Feldmuehle Uetersen Germany

  • 80,000 CFS

Q1 2019 Shut PM2 Lecta Condat France

  • 230,000 CFS

2019 Convert a PM to specialty Stora Enso Oulu Finland

  • 1,080,000 CFS

End of 2020 Shut PM6, convert PM7 to kraftliner Arjowiggins Bourray, Besse-sur-Braye France

  • 348,000 CFS

2019 Q1 Mill closure UPM Plattling Germany

  • 155,000 CME

2019 Q3 Shut PM10 ND Paper Biron USA

  • 103,000 CME

Q3 2019 Shift PM25 to packaging New-Indy Catawba USA

  • 310,000 CME

n/a Potential conversion to packaging Verso Luke USA

  • 408,000 CFS

2019 Q3 Shut by June 30th Nippon Paper Ind. Fuji Japan

  • 33,000 CME

2019 Shut PM11 APP Tijwi Kimia Indonesia

  • 245,000 CFS

2019 Convert to packaging Hokuetsu Niigata Japan

  • 161,000 CFS

2019 Close by end of June Nippon Paper Ind. Yufutsu Japan

  • 88,000 CFS

2020 Mill shut Daio Paper Mishima Japan

  • 150,000 CFS

2019 Conversion to kraft papers and paperboard Global totals

  • 601,000 CME
  • 2,835,000 CFS
  • 3,436,000 total

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

Note: There are currently no major coated paper capacity expansions occurring globally.

13

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SLIDE 14

Global uncoated woodfree prices

HOW LARGE OF A GLOBAL PREMIUM CAN THE USA MAINTAIN?

  • Brazilian prices can jump above US

levels due to currency swings, premium versus offshore imports.

  • US and European prices have

historically been close, but wide gap has re-opened due to tighter US market.

  • Asian gap with US prices at all-time

peak of more than $300/tonne in early 2019.

14

600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 USD/tonne US 20 lb copy paper

  • W. Europe A4-B

Brazil domestic cut size Southeast Asia 70 gsm UWF

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

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SLIDE 15

2-5%

Mexican USD P&W prices down 2-5% y-o-y in 3Q19

15 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

Signs that printing & writing profitability has peaked

MARKETS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN

  • Weak demand, more capacity startups and falling costs for fiber in Asia
  • US producers forced to roll back some of 2019 UWF price hike despite G-P closure

AFTER SPIKING, MILL COST INFLATION IS ABATING

  • Pulp prices in decline
  • Energy down sharply, albeit starting to recover

RISE IN IMPORTS

  • Global oversupply will increase competition
  • Stronger US dollar and some tariff reductions

REDUCED CONVERSION OPPORTUNITY

  • Less room for new containerboard machines, global economic risks

5-15%

Brazilian P&W prices down 5-15% in first half of 2019

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SLIDE 16

Next moves for US printing & writing prices will be down

US PRICES 5-12% ABOVE YEAR-AGO LEVELS IN EARLY 2019

  • No room for any further gains even

with major capacity closures.

  • Prices for most grades have already

begun to erode.

  • Any potential recession likely to

trigger larger demand declines and result in price drops.

$700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 US dollars per cwt SC-A

  • Ctd. No. 5 40 lb
  • Ctd. No. 3 60 lb.
  • Unc. offset 50 lb.

Cut size copy

16 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Outlook Presentation

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SLIDE 17

North American containerboard producers are taking economic downtime to address slower demand growth

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 17

  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million tonnes Demand Demand % change Corrugated boxes % change

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SLIDE 18

Robust capacity expansion will keep North American containerboard operating rates depressed

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 18

90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97%

  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million tonnes Change in demand Change in capacity Change in true demand Operating rates

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SLIDE 19

Slow growth in North American boxboard demand and supply

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 19

90% 91% 91% 92% 92% 93% 93% 94% 94% 95%

  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million tonnes Change in demand Change in capacity Operating rates

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SLIDE 20

Snapshot of 2018 Asian containerboard demand and supply

Chinese demand fell an estimated 3% in 2018

  • Deceleration in economic growth
  • Some substitution from paper to plastics
  • E-commerce working to reduce its packaging footprint
  • Significant uncertainty in the level of decline

Rest of Asia saw fairly steady growth at 3.8% in 2018

  • Compared to average of 4.0% per year in 2016-2017

Chinese output tumbled while net imports soared

  • Chinese production fell an estimated 5% or 2.5 million tonnes
  • Net imports jumped almost 1.1 million tonnes
  • Rest of Asia supplied much of this, with net imports climbing 800,000 tonnes

Entering 2019, demand conditions have been sluggish

  • Economic weakness and effects of lingering US-China trade war

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 20

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SLIDE 21

Chinese RCP policies are changing the way companies are operating

Constrained fiber supplies driving up imports and reducing production

  • RCP imports fell from 25.7 million tonnes in 2017 to 17.0 million tonnes in 2018.
  • Expected to fall to 10-12 million tonnes in 2019 and then 5-6 million tonnes in 2020 before

total ban goes into effect in 2021.

Large companies are making investments in light of the new policies

  • Numerous projects in the works in Vietnam, Malaysia, Laos and India

Previously planned projects apparently being delayed

  • Due to economic weakness and effects of lingering US-China trade war

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 21

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SLIDE 22

The smaller exporters to the world reaped most of the benefits from the shift in Chinese policy (net exports to world)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Million tonnes

Nontraditional containerboard exporters

Japan South Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand India Other Asia 2 4 6 8 10 12 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Million tonnes

Traditional containerboard exporters

North America Western Europe Brazil South Africa Oceania

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Packaging Outlook 22

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SLIDE 23

China’s containerboard market adjusting to new RCP policies

Year-to-year change

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Containerboard and Boxboard Outlook 23

65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Million tonnes Production Net imports Demand Operating rate

DEMAND WILL DROP AGAIN IN 2019 AND THEN MOVE UP IN 2020

  • Weak economy
  • Dictated by fiber balance

PRODUCTION WILL FALL AND NET IMPORTS WILL CLIMB

  • Output constrained by fiber
  • Market attractive to other Asian suppliers
  • But can imports continue to climb that much?

OPERATING RATES ARE TUMBLING

  • Level dependent on capacity assumptions
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SLIDE 24

The North American tissue market has been strong recently

  • The AfH sector in particular

benefitted from the strong economy, low gasoline prices and changing lifestyle of younger generations.

  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Growth rate, percent per year

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Market Outlook 24

Average growth accelerated from 1.5% to 1.95% per year

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SLIDE 25

US tissue import growth, 2009-2018

  • Canada continues to be the

main US import source for tissue, but China has taken second place ahead of Mexico and Indonesia.

  • However, imports tariffs will

restrict imports from China; the first five months of 2019 show decreases in the volume

  • f Chinese tissue imported by

the USA.

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Imports, thousand tonnes

Average growth rate, 2009-2018: 5.4% per year

Canada China Mexico Indonesia Italy South Korea Germany All others

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Market Outlook 25

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SLIDE 26

Expected growth in US tissue consumption by business sector

  • At-Home retailer labels will

show the strongest growth, while At-Home branded volume growth will remain moderate.

  • AfH growth will rise above

average At-Home growth.

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 AH brands Retailer labels AfH Million tonnes

Market volume

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Growth of 5.9% per year Growth of 2.3% per year

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Market Outlook 26

Minor growth of 0.4% per year

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SLIDE 27

Major tissue capacity changes in North America, 2018-2021

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Market Outlook

2018

  • Georgia-Pacific, Augusta, GA, USA
  • 31,000 t/a
  • Sofidel America, Circleville, OH, USA (2 x NTT)

140,000 t/a

  • Kimberly-Clark, Fullerton, CA, USA
  • 60,000 t/a
  • First Quality Tissue, Anderson, SC, USA (TAD PM)

64,000 t/a 113,000 t/a

2019

  • Soundview Paper, Elmwood Park, NJ, USA (closure after two fires)
  • 110,000 t/a
  • Clearwater Paper, Shelby, NC, USA (NTT PM)

64,000 t/a

  • Irving Consumer Products, Macon, GA, USA (TAD PM)

64,000 t/a

  • Cascades Tissue Group, Scarborough and Whitby, ON, Canada (mill closures)
  • 61,000 t/a
  • Soundview Paper, Elmwood Park, NJ, USA (restart of PM11)

60,000 t/a

  • Georgia-Pacific Corp., Crossett, AR, USA (closure of the oldest PM)
  • 30,000 t/a
  • Georgia-Pacific Corp., Palatka, FL, USA (TAD PM)

72,000 t/a

  • Sofidel America, Inola, OK, USA

60,000 t/a 119,000 t/a

2020-2021

  • First Quality Tissue, Lock Haven, PA, USA

64,000 t/a

  • Sofidel America, Inola, OK, USA

60,000 t/a

  • Georgia-Pacific, Naheola, AL, USA (replacement)

8,000 t/a

  • Kruger Tissue, Brompton, Sherbrook, QC, Canada (TAD PM)

70,000 t/a 202,000 t/a

27

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SLIDE 28

Net capacity change* and tissue operating rate in North America

  • The outlook is surprisingly

good despite the number of projects, but a lot depends on how much tariffs on imports from China change the net trade balance.

  • We assume a conservative

decline in net imports in this forecast (trend change).

80 85 90 95 100

  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 Capacity utilization, percent Thousand tonnes Capacity change Capacity utilization

2019 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Market Outlook 28

A lot of new capacity coming on stream that will affect 2019-2020; utilization rate will head south but only slightly if no further closures occur

* Based on committed projects only.

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SLIDE 29

Pulp markets recently completed an historical run…

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook 29

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Cumulative price change, US dollars per tonne Consecutive months

Cumulative price change

Mar-16 to Oct-18 Dec-85 to Mar-90 Dec-93 to Nov-95

0.75 0.95 1.15 1.35 1.55 1.75 1.95 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Net price / high average variable cost Consecutive months

Net price / high average variable cost

Mar-16 to Oct-18 Dec-85 to Mar-90

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SLIDE 30

Producer inventories reach a record high

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook 30 Source: PPPC, Fastmarkets RISI.

15 25 35 45 55 65 75 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Produce inventories, days of supply

BHK Average BHK (2004-10 = 36.4, 2011-18 = 42.7) BSK Average BSK (29.7)

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SLIDE 31

Domestic pulp prices in China searching for a bottom

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook 31 * Reflects net renminbi domestic resale price converted to US dollars, excluding VAT and logistics costs.

500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

NBSK prices in China, $/tonne

NBSK domestic resale* NBSK net import 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

BEK prices in China, $/tonne

BEK domestic resale* BEK net import

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SLIDE 32

BHK cash cost curve from Mill Intelligence

LATIN AMERICAN PRODUCERS DOMINATE THE LOW END OF THE COST CURVE

  • Latin American producers benefit

from low-cost wood and the exchange rate

  • Higher-cost facilities tend to be

much smaller and located in Asia and the Northern Hemisphere

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook 32

■ Africa ■ Asia ■ Europe ■ Latin America ■ North America

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SLIDE 33

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Market pulp capacity growth

Limited market pulp capacity expansion until 2021

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Pulp market could remain weaker for longer

2019 | Fastmarkets | World Pulp Outlook 34

0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Shipment/capacity adj. Shipment/capacity ratio (R)

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SLIDE 35

China and Other Asia: RCP imports

Million tonnes OTHER ASIA CATCHING UP WITH CHINA

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2012 2014 2016 2017 2018 China Other Asia

35 2019 | Fastmarkets | Outlook for Global RCP Markets

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SLIDE 36

OCC prices in different regions

CHINESE PAPER COMPANIES FACING HIGH RECYCLED FIBER COSTS

  • Before July 2017, one set of OCC prices
  • Now, two sets of prices: Chinese price and

prices outside of China

  • Sharp drop in US and European OCC

prices

  • Low OCC import prices in Southeast Asia
  • Domestically collected OCC became quite

expensive in China due to the overall recycled fiber shortage issue in 2018

  • Recent decline in OCC prices globally

because of the weak paper packaging markets and reduction in Asian RCP purchases

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2016 2017 2018 2019 US average, USD/tonne (L) German OCC, EUR/tonne (L) Chinese imported #12, USD/tonne (L) Asian imported US OCC, USD/tonne (L) Chinese domestic, RMB/tonne (R)

36 2019 | Fastmarkets | Outlook for Global RCP Markets

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SLIDE 37

China’s investments in recycled pulp

ANNOUNCED AND ESTIMATED RECYCLED PULP PROJECTS

37 2019 | Fastmarkets | Outlook for Global RCP Markets

  • Nine Dragons
  • Fairmont, USA: About 220,000 tonnes per year (started up

already)

  • Biron, USA: 650,000 tonnes per year
  • Rumford, USA: About 400,000 tonnes per year
  • India: 500,000 tonnes
  • Lee & Man
  • Myanmar: 680,000 tonnes per year
  • Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year
  • Sun Paper: Laos: 400,000 tonnes per year
  • Jingxing Paper: Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year
  • Shanying
  • Wickliffe, USA: 120,000 tonnes per year
  • Malaysia: 550,000 tonnes per year
  • Other