Nicole Maynard Managing Director Tennessee PIVOTAL PARTNERS THE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PRESENTING SPONSOR

Nicole Maynard Managing Director – Tennessee

PIVOTAL PARTNERS

THE REGION IN 2015

JOINT METRO REGION

Source: U.S. Census and REMI Projections

7.5% 6.9% 7.7% 7.1% 6.1% 5.8% 4.3% 2.7% 4.1% 2.5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2010-2015 2015-2020

Population Growth

Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S.

POPULATION

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

EMPLOYMENT

• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Workforce Percentage Change (monthly change vs. 12 months prior)

Employment Labor Force

RELOCATION AND EXPANSION

“Expanding our presence in Nashville was the right business decision for UBS. As a longstanding member of the community, we knew this was a city with the educated, skilled talent capable of helping us grow.”

• Wanda Lyle

Managing Director, General Manager

• f Nashville BSC

UBS

#2 FASTEST-GROWING CITY FOR TECH JOBS Fortune, 2015

WORKFORCE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Source: U.S. Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics

LABOR FORCE

67.0% 67.3% 64.7% 61.4% 63.3%

55% 60% 65% 70% Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S.

Labor Force Participation

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

UNEMPLOYMENT

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unemployment 2005-2015

Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S.

13.8% 12.8% 49.2% 11.9% 12.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Pre and Young Schoolers 0-9 Next Gen Talent (10-19) Prime Worker Age (20-54) Pre-Retirees (55- 64) Retirees (65+)

Age Composition, Joint Metro Region

Source: REMI Projections

AGE

Source: EMSI

WORKING AGE

7.0% 2.3% 6.3% 1.9% 12.0% 4.7%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2010-2015 2015-2020

Change in Working Age Population

Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA

Source: REMI Projections

5% 0% 5% Ages 85+ Ages 80-84 Ages 75-79 Ages 70-74 Ages 65-69 Ages 60-64 Ages 55-59 Ages 50-54 Ages 45-49 Ages 40-44 Ages 35-39 Ages 30-34 Ages 25-29 Ages 20-24 Ages 15-19 Ages 10-14 Ages 5-9 Ages 0-4

Joint Metro Region Population Composition (2030)

Male Female 5% 0% 5% Ages 85+ Ages 80-84 Ages 75-79 Ages 70-74 Ages 65-69 Ages 60-64 Ages 55-59 Ages 50-54 Ages 45-49 Ages 40-44 Ages 35-39 Ages 30-34 Ages 25-29 Ages 20-24 Ages 15-19 Ages 10-14 Ages 5-9 Ages 0-4

Joint Metro Region Population Composition (2000) Male Female

AGING WORKFORCE & POPULATION

EDUCATION

Source: EMSI

27.2% 39.0% 6.7% 1.1% 4.6% 17.9% 2.1% 1.5% 24.1% 34.7% 7.8% 1.7% 6.0% 20.1% 3.3% 2.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Less than high school High school diploma Postsecondary non-degree award Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Doctoral or professional degree Master's degree

% of 2015 Jobs % of 2015-2020 Jobs

Employment Composition by Education, Joint Metro Region

Source: U.S. Census

EDUCATION

3.2% 6.8% 27.5% 21.9% 7.8% 22.1% 10.7% 3.8% 8.2% 32.2% 22.0% 7.5% 17.0% 9.3% 4.7% 7.2% 26.4% 21.8% 8.8% 19.8% 11.3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Less than HS 9th-12th grade High school graduate Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree

Educational Attainment

Joint Metro Region Tennessee U.S.

LABOR MOBILITY

MIDDLE-SKILL OPPORTUNITIES

Source: EMSI Projections

• “The labor force participation rate will continue to fall in coming years, as a

vast majority of those who haven't retired will do so in the next couple of decades.”

• “U.S. builders shed more than 2 million jobs during and after the housing bust.

Now they can’t find enough carpenters, electricians… and other craftsmen.”

• “The great conundrum of the U.S. economy today is that we have record

numbers of working-age people out of the labor force at the same time we have businesses desperately trying to find workers.”

• “Given all that has happened in the economy recently… the idea of a labor

shortage might seem preposterous.”

• “As the economy continues to slowly recover and millions of job openings are

expected to appear over the next decade, there is a growing call for more educated workers to fill those positions.”

• “America has a deficit of workers. Willing workers. Capable workers. Skilled, or

at least semi-skilled workers, who can do a job and do it well. There are at least 1 million jobs that go begging day after day if only employers could find workers to fill them.”

WORKFORCE SHORTAGES

Source: CareerBuilder, 2012

WORKFORCE SHORTAGES

Source: CareerBuilder, 2012

WORKFORCE SHORTAGES

EMPLOYEE / EMPLOYER RELATIONSHIPS SUFFER TOO

Nationwide, there are 42,831,979 jobs in middle-skill occupations. Middle- skill jobs are expected to grow 6% by 2020. Median wages for middle-skill jobs nationally are at $21.75 an hour, 56% higher than the median of low- skill jobs.

Source: EMSI Projections

Typical entry level into middle-skill jobs

High school diploma with more than short-term, on-the-job training OR Work experience, but less than bachelor’s degree AND Median hourly wage over $13.68 in the joint metro region. Middle skills are an integral piece in resolving labor force shortages nationwide.

MIDDLE SKILLS

SKILLS LADDER

Training Skills Jobs Earnings

OCCUPATIONS BY SKILL/ EDUCATION ENTRY-LEVEL REQUIREMENTS

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Atlanta Austin Charlotte Denver Indianapolis Kansas City Louisville Memphis Nashville Raleigh Tampa

Location Quotient Comparisons for Middle-Skill Jobs

MIDDLE SKILLS

MIDDLE SKILLS

Source: EMSI Projections

260,000 280,000 300,000 320,000 340,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Middle-Skill Jobs, Joint Metro Region

Over the past decade, growth in middle-skill jobs has been over 3.5 times the national average, at 9.6%. 41.4% of production, transportation, construction, and maintenance jobs are middle-skill occupations.

Source: EMSI Projections

MIDDLE SKILLS

Middle Skills by Occupation, Joint Metro Region

2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 8% 12% 14% 17% 17%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%

Business and Financial Occupations Computer Occupations Food Preparation Occupations Management Occupations Protectivion Occupations Healthcare Support Occupations Construction Occupations Transportation Occupations Sales Occupations Installation and Repair Occupations Healthcare Practitioners Occupations Office and Administrative Occupations Production Occupations Percentage middle skills

Source: EMSI Projections

0.3% 6.9% 22.2% 24.8% 26.0% 16.0% 3.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Group

Age Distribution: Middle-Skill Jobs, Joint Metro Region

MIDDLE SKILLS

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: HEALTH CARE

20.3% 10.1% 8.4% 8.0% 7.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Patient Care Treatment Planning Medical Coding Scheduling Accounting

Most Posted Skills in Health Care

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

Jobs: 124,466 Average earnings: $62,808 Establishments: 4,323 LQ: 0.95

0.5% 8.7% 25.7% 24.2% 22.4% 14.7% 3.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Workforce Age

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: HEALTH CARE

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: MANUFACTURING

15.6% 11.4% 9.8% 7.6% 6.8%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Repair Sales Inspection Accounting Scheduling

Most Posted Skills in Manufacturing

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

0.3% 6.5% 18.2% 25.3% 30.1% 16.6% 2.9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Workforce Age

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: MANUFACTURING

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

Jobs: 81,226 Average earnings: $70,142 Establishments: 1,732 LQ: 1.03

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: INFORMATION

26.9% 15.0% 13.6% 11.1% 10.0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Sales Telecommunications Retail Sales Product Demonstration Store Management

Most Posted Skills in Information Tech

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

0.9% 6.7% 25.3% 26.8% 23.8% 14.0% 2.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Workforce Age

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: INFORMATION

Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau

Jobs: 20,468 Average earnings: $83,190 Establishments: 1,113 LQ: 1.08

BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Source: EMSI and Burning Glass

WORKFORCE DEMAND

Occupation Job Postings Location Quotient Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 7,414 1.4 Registered nurses 7,250 1.3 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing 4,999 1.3 Retail salespersons 4,960 1.1 Computer occupations, all other 4,552 0.9 Customer service representatives 4,160 1.3 Software developers, applications 4,048 0.7 First-line supervisors of retail sales workers 3,302 1.1 Medical and health services managers 3,137 1.4 Accountants and auditors 2,787 1.2

Top 10 Job Postings 2015

Source: EMSI and Burning Glass

WORKFORCE DEMAND

9% 8% 7% 7% 7%

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Sales Accounting Repair Scheduling Patient Care

Top Skills Listed in Job Postings

Percent of Postings Location Quotient

Source: EMSI and Burning Glass

WORKFORCE DEMAND

31% 42% 20% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 8 years 8+ years

Minimum Experience Requirements Within Job Postings

Source: EMSI and Burning Glass

WORKFORCE DEMAND

36% 11% 45% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% High school or vocational training Associate degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree

Minimum Education Requirements Within Job Postings

Source: EMSI and Burning Glass

2005- 2010 2010- 2015 2015-2020 (projected) Health care 21.3% 15.4% 11.6% Manufacturing

• 31.7%

17.4%

• 4.2%

Finance & insurance 6.4% 10.0% 4.5% Information

• 6.4%

5.2% 0.6% Construction

• 16.8%

17.5% 11.2% Creative & cultural industries 1.1% 13.9% 6.2% Logistics

• 6.4%

22.1% 6.9% Hospitality 1.4% 19.1% 4.6% HQs, back offices, shared services

• 2.3%

32.5% 10.5%

WORKFORCE INDUSTRY GROWTH

Of the top 50 high demand

• ccupations, 24 are

considered middle-skill. 25 are above the median wage in the region. 30% of the highest-demand jobs require an associate degree or higher; 12% require postsecondary training.

Industry Growth Rates

• Most of the new openings in the region will be filled by the existing workforce.
• More than 17,000 students graduate from colleges in the joint metro region annually.

Approximately 10,000 graduates remain and work in the area.

• Historically, economic opportunity has drawn migration to the area. Levels have nearly

doubled from low levels during the recession. The region can expect from 15,000 to 25,000 new net residents per year from migration.

• Unemployment has decreased by approximately 7,200 workers annually since
• 2010. Other workers have opted back into the labor force.
• Workers and occupations vary widely by skill level and experience. Without adequate

supply of capable workers, industries see slower growth rates than what typically might be expected.

SUPPLY

BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

• 120,000-140,000 individuals leaving the

workforce in next five years

• 8,000- 12,000 unemployed return to

work

• 90,000-115,000 high school and college

graduates enter local workforce

• 40,000-50,000 persons new to labor

market with a majority having prior experience Retire Return to work New graduates New to labor market (migration)

• Recent job growth exceeded any prior historical comparison, rapidly moving forward the

demographic transition and pushing the area to record workforce shortages.

• Managing balance of workforce supply and demand requires keen attentiveness to the “levers.”
• Spatial mismatch and mobility function are major barriers to efficiency in the area’s labor market.
• Retaining knowledge workers and recruiting younger workers will be imperative in critical
• ccupations in several industries, chiefly manufacturing and construction, with rapidly increasing

retirement levels in the next five years.

• Current worker shortages impact firm competitiveness with potential lost contracts and growth.
• The Nashville MSA ranks sixth in the nation for density of middle-skill jobs among large metros.
• The Workforce Innovation & Opportunity Act (WIOA) offers a broad new opportunity to stimulate

supply in key occupational groups.

• First results of innovative education initiatives, Drive to 55 and Tennessee Promise, will impact

workforce directions significantly from 2015 to 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

PRESENTING SPONSOR

Michelle Henry

Vice President, Global Philanthropy

PANELISTS Ken Knight

FACILITY COMPLEX MANAGER, GM SPRING HILL

Sheila Stern

SENIOR DIRECTOR, ASCENSION HEALTH

Don Enfinger

MANAGING DIRECTOR, BNY MELLON

John Morgan

CHANCELLOR, TENNESSEE BOARD OF REGENTS