[PPT] - New methods for description and assessment of climate system PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

New methods for description and assessment of climate system changes

V.I. Shishlov

Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS

SLIDE 2

Multiregime weather forming process

Phase portraits, weather maps, climate maps Climate portraits, maps Pressure (P), temperature (T), humidity (E), wind direction (WD), solar radiation (SR), radiative balance (RB) Main meteorological variables matrix Overcast VI, rainy VII, cloudy VIII, clear IX, cold X, frosty XI-XV Weather classes (WC) Warm and moisture advection (WMA), cold advection (CA), cold advection with precipitation (CAP), radiative heating (RH), radiative heating with night cooling (RHC), equilibrium (Eq), radiative cooling (RC), cooling rain (CR), snowstorm (SS) Weather forming regimes (WFR) Circulation factors (CF): South-West transfer (SWT), cyclone (C), anticyclone (A), atmospheric fronts movement (AFM). Phenomena (Ph): rain (S), snow (T ), fog (F). Albedo variations (AV): +DA, -DA Climate forming factors (CFF)

SLIDE 3

Information model of the multi-regime weather formation process

NW NW N S W SW SW S N NW NW NW W W- N W WD 76 73 93 90 80 93 82 75 72 75 80 81 85 E, %

14
11
3

+5

+3+7

+2+4

6
14
10
2
5

+2 +5+13 T, oC 740 745 738 743 738 720 750 750 748 747 743 740 730 P, mm XII XI X VII VI VII XI XII XI X XI X VII WC 12 10-11 8-9 6-7 1-5 29-31 28 27 26 25 24 22-23 20-21 Date Eq WM A S

∆А

NWT RC NT T +∆А CAP SWT C A RC NWT T +∆А CAP C S CR CF Ph AV WFR

( )

) ( 1 ) 1 ( ) ( ) 1 (

, , , ,

p k j i p p p

X Ф Ф Ф Ф L X X

+ +

+ =

where Lj(p+1) is the operator of transformation of regime and characteristics of the state of the system in the p+1 stage

The integral estimator Z of the meteorological parameter X

∑

+ =

=

n k k p

) p ( X ) n , k ( Z

, where p =1,2,3…

SLIDE 4

Fig. Changes of the

integral estim ation functions of air tem perature.

Evolutionary trajectories are pass through singular points, which correspond to change from winter to summer. All three trajectories have jogs at warming in the 40s-50s,

scillation at cooling in the 60s, and directional temperature rise with variations, which

corresponds to regional warming features in the 80s-90s. Regional changes of the temperature regime in Krasnoyarsk at irreversible changes of intersystem relations in ECS after flooding of Krasnoyarsk hydroelectric power station reservoir were reflected in the evolutional trajectories. Trajectories of Omsk and Krasnoyarsk branched off.

Technique for com parative analysis of evolutionary trajectories

SLIDE 5

Technique for comparative analysis of transient processes

24.3.98 31.3.98 07.4.98 14.4.98 21.4.98 28.4.98 05.5.98 12.5.98 19.5.98

20
10

10 20 T (oC) 4 8 12 16 20 Precipitations (mm) 990 1000 1010 1020 1030 Pressure (GPa) 24.3.99 31.3.99 07.4.99 14.4.99 21.4.99 28.4.99 05.5.99 12.5.99 19.5.99

20
10

10 20 30 T (oC) 2 4 6 8 Precipitations (mm) 1000 1010 1020 1030 1040 Pressure (GPa) 24.3.99 31.3.99 07.4.99 14.4.99 21.4.99 28.4.99 05.5.99 12.5.99 19.5.99 20 40 60 80 S n

w

d e p t h ( c m ) 1998 1999

Temperature (•), atmosphere pressure (∆) , precipitations (bars) and snow depth in springs of 1998 and 1999.

An estimation of climate dynamic properties was done with the use of variation characteristics of meteorological variables such as amplitude, frequency and number of oscillations, positive and negative extreme amplitude, range

f amplitudes variability, change rate, duration of winter and summer.

SLIDE 6

Technique for estimation of tendencies of regional climatic changes in Western Siberia

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

10

10 20

Tw, oC Ts, oC

з з з з з з од од з з з з з рк рк к к к г рк г к рк г г г г г

Results of identification of temperature changes for ensemble of climate conditions in Omsk. (Тs - average temperature for the period from May till September. Тw - average temperature for the period from October till April.):

Variability of conditions has increased;
Continentality (К) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental conditions (РК)

with frosty winter and drough (З) in summer;

The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold period of year with

plentiful deposits (cyclogenesis, advection of heat) is established;

The number of damp (Г) annual conditions with intense water cycle has increased.

SLIDE 7

Estimation of changes of ensemble of annual conditions in phase space of estimated characteristics

General feature for all

regions - displacement of ensemble of conditions of last stages since 1978.

Feature of Tobolsk,

Khanty-Mansiysk, Kolpashevo - expansion

f area of ensemble of

conditions.

1890 - 1930 - 1931 - 1955 - 1988 - 2004 гг.
13 -12 -11 -10
9
8
7
6
5

Tw, oC 11 12 13 14 15 16 Тобольск

1891 1892 1890 1990 1994 1991 1992 2002 2003 2000 1995 1941 1954

Method of identification of regional climate changes based on the phase portrait analysis

SLIDE 8

Technique for estimation of trends of changes by representation of trajectories and climate condition areas

Precipitation, mm

Temperature, oC

SLIDE 9

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 AmSW, oC

3
2
1

1 2 3 T, oC 2001 1969 1989

1882 - 1937 1938 - 1972 1973 - 1988 1989 - 2006

Transformation of area of regional climate conditions

SLIDE 10

Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia

Figure 7. Mapping of an ensemble of CS states single directed changes were in all

regions. Arrows show directed changes.

CS of all regions made a cycle of transition and return to the initial state (1963-1966 yrs). The profile (Π) of space distribution of estimation functions was conserved during all

transitions. Rate of estimation

characteristic change was 56 % per year in Tomsk, 68% in Khanty-

Mansijsk. Amplitude of oscillation was

154% . A single cycle of climatic mesoscale processes in the single CS of West Siberia.

SLIDE 11

MATRIX DESCRIPTION OF OBSERVATION SERIES

8.5
9.9
0.8

10.1 12.4 19.1 19.8 7.2

5.2
6.7
18.8
33.8

2006

23
9.9
0.4

8.9 13.8 17.3 16.6 11

3.1
4.5
8.1
11.1

2002

19.3
5.9
1.6

7.2 12.6 22.2 15.3 4.4

3
12.5
30.1
31

1969 DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN YEAR

Matrices of monthly characteristics of climate conditions for Kolpashevo Matrices of seasonal characteristics of climate conditions for Omsk Matrix describing sequence of climatic system states This matrix is an empirical model of evolution of climatic system states

SLIDE 12

METHODICAL GROUNDS FOR MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES

We use a wide set of tools for mathematical analysis in the framework of theory of

multiple-step processes, classic theory of matrix series and evaluation of state changes.

Procedure and algorithm for assessment of regional climate variability are based
n calculation of norms of matrices of meteorological quantities, as well as evaluation

characteristics for their variation for the consequent states.

Procedure for analysis and evaluation of warming trend and transition of climatic

system to attractive state is based on calculation of norms of matrices of seasonal temperature deviations from the attractive ones ТХ=lim Т(р), Р=1,2,3… for sequence of states and analysis of features of numerical series for characteristics. Warming trend exists when characteristics and norms of matrices of deviations diminish with time.

As evaluation characteristics, we use typical norms of matrix: l- norm Rl and m-norm

Jm:

Yi J Yi N R

i m N i l

max , 1

1

= =

∑

=

The problem on trend steadiness evaluation comes to evaluation of convergence of series of matrices of deviations and, correspondingly, numerical series of characteristics R to the vicinity of small parameter ε. lim R(p)=ε at р≥N*.

SLIDE 13

Normalized estimate of secular changes of state characteristics

2.97

1.93

0.78

0.8

2.97
2.03
1.9

2005

1.8

1.11

0.36
0.43
1.8
1.77
0.43

2004

6.07

2.83

2.08
0.1
3.1
2.03
6.07

2003

2.77

1.48

0.73
1.17
2.77
1.7
0.27

2002

2.5

1.09

0.04
1
2.5
0.27

0.6 2001

2.03

1.48

0.52
2.03
1.57
1.9

0.42 2000

3.51

2.12

1.37
2.73
1.67
3.51
0.57

1999

7

3.98

2.25
3.4
0.83
7
4.7

1998

10.5

5.71

4.96
1.77
4.7
5.9
10.5

1969

5.87

3.82

3.07
3.07
3.37
2.97
5.87

1968

8.4

3.00

2.25
0.7
2.27
0.63
8.4

1967

3.37

2.18

1.43
2.23
2.1
1.03
3.37

1966

9.93

5.60

4.85
2.8
3.63
6.03
9.93

1942

7.13

5.61

4.86
5
3.7
7.13
6.6

1941

8.03

3.76

3.01
1.13
1.23
4.63
8.03

1940

6.53

3.97

3.22
3.17
2.33
3.83
6.53

1939

4.6

2.17

1.17

0.5

1.37
2.2
4.6

1938

4.27

3.60

2.85
4
2.97
4.27
3.17

1885

6.83

4.35

3.6
2.57
3.8
6.83
4.2

1884

6.83

3.19

2.44
0.73
2.87
2.33
6.83

1883

3.77

2.93

2.18
2.73
1.53
3.67
3.77

1882

5.88

4.03

3.28
4.5
2.8
2.93
5.88

1881 6 6 21 7

7

T*

J R TY Ta TS TSP TW

YEAR

SLIDE 14

12
10
8
6
4
2

2 4 6 8 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Y R J

Behavior of annual temperature changes Y and norm of seasonal temperature deviation matrices in Kazan’

SLIDE 15

PROCEDURE FOR EVALUATION OF CHANGES FEATURES FOR NON-STEADY RHYTHMIC PROCESS

Procedure of evaluation of changes features is based on calculation of norms of matrices of evaluation characteristics for every long-term cycle and analysis of peculiarities of matrix series behavior for sequence of cycles. To reveal trends for non-steady process with complicated trajectories, we apply procedures of graph-analytic analysis using envelopes of secular changes trajectories and their tangents. Trend of directional climate changes exists, when all tangents are uniformly directed. When tangents for trajectory of evaluation characteristics change are parallel to time axis, the process is steady (Lagrangian condition).

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6

C

Огибающая Касательная

Evaluation of directional changes’ trend.

SLIDE 16

MATRIX DESCRIPTION OF GEOGRAPHIC OBJECTS AND PARAMETRIC FIELDS

When using matrix description of geographical objects and distribution of parametric fields, we use geographic reference for information on spatially distributed objects. In this case, position of every matrix element uniquely referred to geographic coordinates. Distribution of annual (seasonal) meteorological quantities on Siberian territory within isolated region with coordinates 60°-120° E and 52°-67° N is described with matrix MP Matrix elements Мр present values of meteorological quantities in the regions located in the corresponding squares of geographic grid. For example, matrix of annual temperatures in Siberian regions in 2006 is the following

SLIDE 17

GEOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF CLIMATIC CHANGES

Distribution of annual (seasonal) meteorological quantities

in Siberia in the isolated region, having coordinates 60°- 120° E and 52°-67° N, is described with MP matrix in the corresponding boxes of geographic grid

Stage 1978 – 1994

М45- Bratsk М53- Barnaul 55 М55 М53 М37- Aldan М42- Omsk 58° М45

2.5
1

М42 >0 М33- Kolpashevo М34- Eniseisk 60° М37

7

М34 М33 М31 МР = М21-Khanty-Mansiisk М31- Tobol’sk 65° М21 М11-Salekhard М13-Turukhansk 67° СШ М13

8.5

М11 ВД 120° 100° 80° 60°

SLIDE 18

Stage 2 0 0 2 – 2 0 0 6

М45- Bratsk М53- Barnaul 55 М55 М53 М37- Aldan М42- Omsk 58° М45

2

М42 >0 М33-Kolpashevo М34- Eniseisk 60° М37

7
2.8

М34 М33 М31 МР = М21- Khanty-Mansiisk М31- Tobol’sk 65° М21 М11- Salekhard М13- Turukhansk 67° СШ М13

7.5

М11 ВД 120° 100° 80° 60° 0,3 1,1

2,0

1,3

6,9
2,8
2,2
0,1

М2006 =

1,9
7,5
7,6

Matrix of annual tem peratures in Siberian regions in 2006

SLIDE 19

Summary

New knowledge of mechanisms of climatic changes are received after interpretation of results of the analysis in the context the framework of the concept of the connected changes of processes of uniform cycle КС and their integration.

The mechanism of atmospheric circulation change under gravity

influence.

A mechanism of dynamic changes of a multiregime weather

formation process of the based on the reorganization of energy conversion processes in the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionally reversible transformation of relations between elements.

A mechanism of energy conversion change and energy-mass transfer

cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean-cryosphere- atmosphere-land system. At the present stage since 1978 warming is connected with an establishment of zone circulation of an atmosphere, interface ice cover the seas, displacement of circulating zones and increase of heat and a moisture transportation to continent. The subtropical zone

f a high pressure and steady circumpolar a whirlwind support high-

altitude zonelity of atmospheric circulation and cyclogenesis in northern latitudel.

SLIDE 20

Thanks for attention

SLIDE 21

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Годы

2

2 4 6 8 10 12

Де Билт Свердловск Тобольск Вроцлав

Century behavior of annual temperature changes for weather station De Built (The Netherlands) and sliding average (bold lines) for weather stations Vrotslav (Poland), Sverdlovsk and Tobol’sk (Russia)

Temperature, oC