New I nt egrat ed Modelling New I nt egrat ed Modelling wit h - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New I nt egrat ed Modelling New I nt egrat ed Modelling wit h Special Ref erence t o wit h Special Ref erence t o AI M/ Ecosyst em Model AI M/ Ecosyst em Model

The 8th AI M I nternational Workshop 13 13-

• 15, March 2003

15, March 2003 From: Y. Matsuoka From: Y. Matsuoka

• I nt roduct ion, t he aim and some f eat ures

I nt roduct ion, t he aim and some f eat ures

• f a new int egrat ed assessment model
• f a new int egrat ed assessment model
• Framework of t he model

Framework of t he model

• Some preliminary result s of t he model

Some preliminary result s of t he model calculat ion calculat ion

Overview of the new model Overview of the new model

1.

• 1. I nt egrat ed Assessment model of Long

I nt egrat ed Assessment model of Long-

• t erm f ut ure

t erm f ut ure scenario on global economy, ecological service and scenario on global economy, ecological service and environment al prot ect ion policy environment al prot ect ion policy 2.

• 2. A t ool f or scenario analysis on

A t ool f or scenario analysis on ・ ・ Energy policy and climat ic change Energy policy and climat ic change ・ ・ Economic assessment of nat ural services Economic assessment of nat ural services ・ ・ Macro Macro-

• economy and land

economy and land-

• use changes

use changes ・ ・ Economic assessment of global environment al Economic assessment of global environment al conservat ion act ivit y conservat ion act ivit y 3.

• 3. Ext ension of AI M on climat e change

Ext ension of AI M on climat e change 4.

• 4. St art ing model t o analyze various global issues,

St art ing model t o analyze various global issues, t hat is t he model has generic st ruct ure, easy t o t hat is t he model has generic st ruct ure, easy t o ext end, ... ext end, ...

• 5. ....
• 5. ....

Some f eatures of the new model (1) Some f eatures of the new model (1)

1. 1. Top Top-

• down global model

down global model 2.

• 2. Coupling of 1) sequent ial quasi

Coupling of 1) sequent ial quasi-

• dynamic general

dynamic general equilibrium model f or balancing and pricing goods and equilibrium model f or balancing and pricing goods and services and 2) Dynamic accumulat ion and depreciat ion services and 2) Dynamic accumulat ion and depreciat ion process model of man process model of man-

• made and nat ural capit als

made and nat ural capit als 3.

• 3. Explicit descript ion of GHGs emission, pollut ion loading

Explicit descript ion of GHGs emission, pollut ion loading and t heir reduct ion act ivit y and t heir reduct ion act ivit y 4.

• 4. Simplif ied nat ural process models of Carbon and

Simplif ied nat ural process models of Carbon and Nit rogen Cycling, Hydrology, Erosion and weat hering Nit rogen Cycling, Hydrology, Erosion and weat hering process process

Some f eatures of the new model (2) Some f eatures of the new model (2)

5. 5. Consistent description of population, GDP, and Consistent description of population, GDP, and land land-

• use change processes

use change processes 6. 6. Explicit descriptions of Explicit descriptions of

• I nteraction among natural/ environment

I nteraction among natural/ environment management activities and macro management activities and macro-

• economy

economy

• Natural and environmental services as

Natural and environmental services as indispensable inputs of economic production and indispensable inputs of economic production and people living people living 5. 5. Explicit description of natural services, Explicit description of natural services, environmental protection activity and their environmental protection activity and their economic interactions economic interactions

Framework of the model Framework of the model

product ion and service sect or

household government abroad market

import export produced goods and service f inal demand Recreat ional and cult ural services

Environment al good/ service product ion sect ors

int ermediat e, energy, capit al, labor environment al ser vice

capit al labor Nat ural capit al

Environment al service

nat ural capit al maint enance sect ors

int erme- diat e, energy, capit al, labor maint enance and augment at ion service maint enance cost s Pollut ion load reduct ion service

• t her

region

• t her

region

Nat ural capit al

• Nat ural capit al = Renewable resources (st ock), having t he

Nat ural capit al = Renewable resources (st ock), having t he concept s of depreciat ion, invest ment concept s of depreciat ion, invest ment

• Environment al goods/ service product ion sect ors :

Environment al goods/ service product ion sect ors : Ext ension of primary indust ry. Agricult ure, St ock Ext ension of primary indust ry. Agricult ure, St ock f arming, wat er supply, f orest ry, f isheries et c.. f arming, wat er supply, f orest ry, f isheries et c..

• Nat ural capit al maint enance sect ors : Funct ional sect or,

Nat ural capit al maint enance sect ors : Funct ional sect or, which which augment s,and augment s,and invest s t o nat ural capit al/ service. invest s t o nat ural capit al/ service.

• Ext ended concept of invest ment : Prevent ion of soil

Ext ended concept of invest ment : Prevent ion of soil degradat ion, increase of base wat er f lows. Cost s is degradat ion, increase of base wat er f lows. Cost s is t ransf erred f rom government or environment al service t ransf erred f rom government or environment al service product ion sect ors. product ion sect ors.

Some t echnical problems on modeling (1)

• 1. Physical volume balancing of goods : Logit share

pref erence f unct ion wit h physical/ monet ary cont inuit y, i.e. Share of input / out put goods : Logit equat ion wit h variable pref erence paramet ers I nput volume = Out put volume (Monet ary, Physically) 1) Composit ion of domest ic market goods wit h domest ic product s and f oreign product s 2) Market elect ricit y product ion by various generat ion met hods

Some t echnical problems on modeling (2)

• 2. Syst emat ic and aut omat ic dat a reconciliat ion processes

among 1) I O st ruct ures and monet ary f lows (GTAP5) 2) Financial f lows (I SS, Hague) 3) Energy f lows (I EA/ OECD), energy resources (f ossil, t radit ional, modern renewables) 4) Agricult ure, f orest ry and livest ock product ions (FAOSTAT) 5) Land-use (FAOSTAT, I GBP 1 km product , GLC2000) 6) St ocks, man-made capit als, environment al devices, nat ural resources/ capit als, human capit als et c.

• 3. Aut omat ic sect or and regional aggregat ion program

coupled wit h support ing dat abase wit h count ry level resolut ion

Funct ions described in t he model (1) Product ion of environment al service, Regulat ing

Service production sectors Related Natural Service Human and Natural capital Human and Natural augmentation of capital Climate control CO2 absorption CO2 sequestation industry terestrial absorbtion

• cean sink

Forest area Construction, Maintenance CO2 emission reduction Energy saving Energy mix change Energy device Power f acility Urban climate stabilization Air conditioning f acilities Forest area Construction, Maintenance Air quality control Emission reduction service Energy mix change Energy saving natural absorbtion

• xidation

decompsition Emission reduction devices, Energy plants Construction, Maintenance Flood control Mitigation f actor disaster prevention industry water retention I mpoundment Green area, I mpoundment Construction, Maintenance Forest area, Crop area, I mpoundment Construction, Maintenance Water purif ication Load reduction public water supply wastewater industry self - purif iction Forest area, Crop area Water works, Well Construction, Maintenance Natural and man- made impoundment Maintenance Regulating : Benef its obtained f rom regulation of processes Service

Funct ions described in t he model (2)

Product ion and enhancement of environment al service

Environmental service production sectors Related Natural Service Human and Natural capital Human and Natural augmentation of capital Water supply I rrigation, Domestic and I ndustrial water supply Water industry, I rrigation service sectors Water hervesting, Surf ace runof f , Evapotransipiration control Ground water harvesting Natural base discharge Primary water resource Ground water resource Forest maintenance, Crop area increase Natural and man- made impoundment Food supply Food production Agriculture (Paddy rice, Wheat, Cereal grains, Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts, Oil seeds, Sugar cane, Fibers) Soil f ormation, Green water, Nutrient cycling Potential crop production Climate mitigation, Soil adjustment, Fertilizer, I rrigation, Water harvest Animal product Livestock Bovine cattle, Sheep and goats, hourses, Animal products, Milk, Wool, Silk- worm Soil f ormation, Green water, Nutrient cycling Livestock f eeding capacity Climate mitigation, Soil adjustment Fuelwood supply Fuel wood production Fuel wood industry Forest primary production Forest primary production (vegetation area) Forest maintenance, Climate mitigation, Maintenance labor Biogeochemic als and genetics

• Biogeochemicals and

genetics Forest area, Climate Maintenance labor Provisioning : Goods produced or provided by systems Service

Some conf ront ed issues posed t o t he Some conf ront ed issues posed t o t he model at present model at present

Population change Economic growth f ood I ndustrial activity land degradation Fresh water demand Wastewater discharge Self purif ication land- use bio- diversity Agriculture・ livestock People’s pref erence f orest Energy consumption Climate module Air environment module Theme 1 Scenario story- line Theme 2 People’s pref erence problem Theme 6 Self purif ication and artif icial wastewater treatment alternative Theme 5 land degradation problem Theme 4 water demand and supply balance Theme 3 Air pollution proble I ndustrial activity

Theme 2 People Theme 2 People’ ’s pref erence and it s s pref erence and it s environment al impact s environment al impact s

GDP/ c Necessary Luxury Food Household consumpt ion and saving Luxury I ndustrial Product Necessary GDP/ c Necessary Luxury Service

Man made capital I nvestment Human capital I nvestment Environment al I nvestment

Theme 3 & 4 Pollut ant emission and reduct ion module

1. Bot t om-up est imat ion of f ollowing equat ions

• 2. Emissions of SO2, NO2, PM, BOD, N and P

LOs,i,r : emission of pollut ant s LO0,s,i,r : emission of pollut ant s in benchmark year ←WDI (BOD), SO2 and NO2 (EDGAR), PM (WRI) Rds,i,r : reduct ion rat io of pollut ant s Rd0,s,i,r : reduct ion rat io of pollut ant s in benchmark year yi,r : act ivit y of sect or i in region r← AIM/Ecosystem CGE module

• 3. Pollut ant Reduct ion service sect ors

RLOs,i,r=ΣIrs,i,r・ Vrs,i,r

RLOs,i,r: Reduced pollut ant load, Rds,i,r・ LOs,i,r/(1-Rds,i,r) Irs,i,r : coef f icient s of pollut ant reduct ion service f unct ion Vrs,i,r : I nput of good i t o pollut ion reduct ion sect or

( ) ( )

r i r i s r i s r i s r i s

y Rd Rd LO LO

, , , , , , , , , , ,

1 1 ⋅ − − =

Est imat e crop product ivit y decrease by land degradat ion.

• Physical erosion : Ea=f (T,R,LUT )

Ea : Degradat ion degree T: Terrain erodibilit y ← Soil t ext ure index, Bulk densit y index, soil dept h index, relief index ←FAO/Soil map of the World R: Rainf all erodibilit y ← AIM/Ecosystem climate module LUT: land cover t ype ← AIM/Ecosystem land-use module

• Crop product ion impact : EI i = EI0,i・

(Ea/Ea,0)n EIi : Product ivit y decrease of crop i caused by land degradat ion EI0,i : Crop product ivit y decrease in benchmark year, 2% ( maize), 1% (wheat ) in EU region Ea,0 : Degradat ion degree in benchmark year

Theme 5 Land degradat ion module

Soil degradat ion int ensit y in 2000, calibrat ion paramet er

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Regional disaggregat ion

Region Countries 1

Canada Canada

2

USA Saint Pierre and Miquelon,United States,United States Minor Outlying Islands Anguilla,Bermuda,El Salvador,Jamaica,Panama,Turks and Caicos Islands Antigua and Barbuda,Cayman Islands,Grenada,Martinique,Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands, British Aruba,Costa Rica,Guadeloupe,Mexico,Saint Kitts and Nevis,Virgin Islands, U.S. Bahamas,Cuba,Guatemala,Montserrat,Saint Lucia, Barbados,Dominica,Haiti,Netherlands Antilles,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Belize,Dominican Republic,Honduras,Nicaragua,Trinidad and Tobago, Argentina,Brazil,Ecuador,Guyana,South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands,Venezuela Bolivia,Chile,Falklands Islands (Malvinas),Paraguay,Suriname, Bouvet Island,Colombia,French Guiana,Peru,Uruguay Algeria,Egypt,Libyan Arab Jamahiriya,Morocco,Tunisia,Western Sahara Benin,Chad,Gabon,Liberia,Saint Helena,Burkina Faso,Congo,Gambia,Mali,Sao Tome and Principe Cameroon,Congo, the Democratic Republic of the,Ghana,Mauritania,Senegal, Cape Verde,Cote D'ivoire,Guinea,Niger,Sierra Leone,- Central African Republic,Equatorial Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Nigeria,Togo, Burundi,Eritrea,Madagascar,Reunion,Somalia Comoros,Ethiopia,Mauritius,Rwanda,Sudan Djibouti,Kenya,Mayotte,Seychelles,Uganda Angola,Lesotho,Mozambique,South Africa,Tanzania, United Republic of,Zimbabwe Botswana,Malawi,Namibia,Swaziland,Zambia

5

Andorra,Finland,Holy See,Vatican City State,Luxembourg,Portugal,Switzerland, Austria,France,Iceland,Malta,San Marino,United Kingdom, Belgium,Germany,Ireland,Monaco,Spain, Denmark,Gibraltar,Italy,Netherlands,Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Faroe Islands,Greece,Liechtenstein,Norway,Sweden,Greenland Albania,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Macedonia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of,Romania,Slovenia Bosnia and Herzegovina,Croatia,Hungary,Poland,Slovakia,Yugoslavia Armenia,Estonia,Kyrgyzstan,Moldova, Republic of,Turkmenistan Azerbaijan,Georgia,Latvia,Russian Federation,Ukraine Belarus,Kazakstan,Lithuania,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan

7

Bahrain,Iraq,Kuwait,Qatar,Turkey Cyprus,Israel,Lebanon,Saudi Arabia,United Arab Emirates, Iran, Islamic Republic of,Jordan,Oman,Syrian Arab Republic,Yemen

8

India India

9

Afganistan,Bhutan,Nepal,Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,British Indian Ocean Territory,Maldives,Pakistan

10 China

China,Hong Kong

11 East Asia

Korea, Democratic People's Republic of,Macau,Taiwan(Province of China),Korea, Republic of,Mongolia Brunei Darussalam,East Timor,Lao People's Democratic Republic,Myanmar,Singapore,Viet Nam Cambodia,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand American Samoa,Fiji,Kiribati,Papua New Guinea,Tonga French Polynesia,Marshall Islands,Niue,Pitcairn,Tuvalu Christmas Island,French Southern Territories,Micronesia, Federated States of,Norfolk Island,Samoa,Vanuatu Cocos (Keeling) Islands,Guam,Nauru,Northern Mariana Islands,Solomon Islands,Wallis and Futuna Cook Islands,Heard Island and Mcdonald Islands,New Caledonia,Palau,Tokelau

13 Japan

Japan

14 Australia and New

Zealand Australia,New Zealand Africa CIS and Eastern Europe South East Asia and Oceania Latin America

3 4 6 12

Oecd Europe Middle East Other South Asia

Product ion sect ors

No CODE Environmental service industry 1 AGR 2 LVK Livestock 3 FRS Forestry 4 FSH Fishing 5 COL Coal 6 OIL Oil 7 GAS Gas 8 WTR Water 9 OMN Minerals nec 10 DPV Disaster prevention industry Other industry 11 IDY Industry 12 P_C Petroleum, coal products 13 ELY Electricity 14 SER Service 15 T_T Transport description Agriculture

concordance among GTAP5, IEA and this model →

CGE_ECO IEA GTAP5 1 AGR AGR PDR Paddy rice 2 AGR AGR WHT Wheat 3 AGR AGR GRO Cereal grains nec 4 AGR AGR V_F Vegetables, fruit, nuts 5 AGR AGR OSD Oil seeds 6 AGR AGR C_B Sugar cane, sugar beet 7 AGR AGR PFB Plant-based fibers 8 AGR AGR OCR Crops nec 9 LVK AGR CTL Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 10 LVK AGR OAP Animal products nec 11 LVK AGR RMK Raw milk 12 LVK AGR WOL Wool, silk-worm cocoons 13 FRS AGR FRS Forestry 14 FSH AGR FSH Fishing 15 COL COL COL Coal 16 OIL OIL OIL Oil 17 GAS GAS GAS Gas 18 OMN OMN OMN Minerals nec 19 LVK FPR CMT Bovine meat products 20 LVK FPR OMT Meat products nec 21 AGR FPR VOL Vegetable oils and fats 22 LVK FPR MIL Dairy products 23 AGR FPR PCR Processed rice 24 AGR FPR SGR Sugar 25 AGR FPR OFD Food products nec 26 AGR FPR B_T Beverages and tobacco products 27 IDY TWL TEX Textiles 28 IDY TWL WAP Wearing apparel 29 IDY TWL LEA Leather products 30 FRS LUM LUM Wood products 31 FRS PPP PPP Paper products, publishing 32 P_C P_C P_C Petroleum, coal products 33 IDY CRP CRP Chemical, rubber, plastic products 34 IDY NMM NMM Mineral products nec 35 IDY I_S I_S Ferrous metals 36 IDY NFM NFM Metals nec 37 IDY OME FMP Metal products 38 IDY TRN MVH Motor vehicles and parts 39 IDY TRN OTN Transport equipment nec 40 IDY OME ELE Electronic equipment 41 IDY OME OME Machinery and equipment nec 42 IDY OMF OMF Manufactures nec 43 ELY ELY ELY Electricity 44 GAS GAS GDT Gas manufacture, distribution 45 WTR OMF WTR Water 46 IDY CNS CNS Construction X DPV CNS CNS Disaster prevention industry 47 SER SER TRD Trade 48 T_T T_T OTP Transport nec 49 T_T T_T WTP Water transport 50 T_T ATP ATP Air transport 51 SER SER CMN Communication 52 SER SER OFI Financial services nec 53 SER SER ISR Insurance 54 SER SER OBS Business services nec 55 SER SER ROS Recreational and other services 56 SER SER OSG Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health 57 IDY DWE DWE Dwellings CODE

Number Description

Regional GDP change in t he st andard case f ollowing SRES A1B

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 3 5 4 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r G D P ( m i l l i

• n

U S $ )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N R O W

Regional t ot al invest ment

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r T

• t

a l i n v e s t m e n t ( m i l l i

• n

U S $ )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N R O W

Regional crude oil product ion

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r C r u d e

• i

l p r

• d

u c t i

• n

( E J / y )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N R O W

Regional CO2 emission

. 5 1 1 . 5 2 2 . 5 3 3 . 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r C O 2 e m i s s i

• n

( G t C / y )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N R O W

Regional SO2 emission under 0.3% GDP invest ment

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r S O

2

( M t S / y )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N

Ef f ect of environment al invest ment on SO2 emission

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r S O

2

e m i s s i

• n

( M t S / y )

St andar d +20% invest ment

• 20% invest ment

Change of f orest area sensit ivit y t o f orest ry product ’s premium

(10 % cost equivalent )

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5

y e a r F

• r

e s t a r e a ( M h a )

C A N U S A L A M A F R E U R E E U M E A I N D S O A C H N E A A S E A J P N O C N R O W C A N + U S A + L A M + A F R + E U R + E E U + M E A + I N D + S O A + C H N + E A A + S E A +

AI M f amily (partly) AI M f amily (partly)

AI M/ Trend AI M/ Trend AI M/ CGE AI M/ CGE-

• Linkage

Linkage AI M/ I mpact AI M/ I mpact AI M/ Mat erial AI M/ Mat erial AI M/ Land AI M/ Land-

• use

use AI M/ Ecosyst em AI M/ Ecosyst em AI M/ AI M/ CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) ) Global Global Asia Count ry Global/ Count ry Count ry level I AM Count ry level I AM new model new model AI M/ Trend AI M/ Trend AI M/ Mat erial AI M/ Mat erial AI M/ AI M/ I mpact [Cout ry I mpact [Cout ry] ] AI M/ I mpact AI M/ I mpact

Concluding remark

• We st art ed const ruct ing more port able,

We st art ed const ruct ing more port able, global comprehensive int egrat ed assessment global comprehensive int egrat ed assessment model f or int egrat ing global economic act ivit y, model f or int egrat ing global economic act ivit y, environment al/ ecosyst em impact s and environment al/ ecosyst em impact s and environment al policies. environment al policies.

• This model is a t op

This model is a t op-

• down, CGE t ype wit h

down, CGE t ype wit h emphasis' s on people and nat ural emphasis' s on people and nat ural environment al act ivit ies environment al act ivit ies

• Scenario analysis f or t he MA assessment is an

Scenario analysis f or t he MA assessment is an immediat e applicat ion of t his act ivit y. immediat e applicat ion of t his act ivit y.

Required Information and assumptions

contents

Scenarios Population by each region Potential Technology I mprovement f or all inputs by each region and sector, i. e . f actors, intermediates, water ← GDP growth consistency Base year statistics Food consumption (AGR, LVK, FRS, FSH consumption) by each region Land use by each sector and each region Water use by each sector and each region Biogeochemicals and genetic use by each sector and each region Flood damage by each sector and each region Empirical equations Food consumption f unction by each region Flood damage and mitigation cost f unction by each region Draught damage f unctions (I ndustry, Domestic, Agriculture) by each region I rrigation cost f unction by each region Water production f unction by each region GHG emission and temperature / precipitation change equations by each region