New I nt egrat ed Modeling Modeling wit h wit h New I nt egrat ed - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New I nt egrat ed New I nt egrat ed Modeling Modeling wit h wit h Special Ref erence t o APEI S Special Ref erence t o APEI S

～ ～Environment al St rat egic Dat abase Engine Environment al St rat egic Dat abase Engine～ ～

Yuzuru Yuzuru Mat suoka Mat suoka The 9t h AI M I nt ernat ional Workshop The 9t h AI M I nt ernat ional Workshop 12 12-

• 14, March 2004

14, March 2004 At At Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Environment al St udies, 305 Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Environment al St udies, 305-

• 8506,Tsukuba, J apan

8506,Tsukuba, J apan

Concept of Environmental Strategic Database

MODEL MODEL

AI M/ Energy, AI M/ Material AI M/ Energy, AI M/ Material AI M/ Trend, AI M/ CGE AI M/ Trend, AI M/ CGE AI M/ Ecosystem AI M/ Ecosystem I nst itution and Management I nst itution and Management Database Database

individual t echnology individual t echnology

Law, Policy, Target , Tax, Financial Mar ket ...

Expert Meet ing

individual t echnology individual t echnology

Operat ion, Management , Gover nance ...

Technology Technology Database Database

individual t echnology individual t echnology

Energy, Pollut ion, I T ...

Adaptation Adaptation Database Database

individual t echnology individual t echnology

Ecosyst em Wat er, Agricult ure, Healt h ...

Policy Maker’s Conf erence Case St udy Policy Design & Assessment RI SPO

individual t echnology individual t echnology

Populat ion, GDP, Emission, Policy Opt ion, Const raint ...

Scenario Database

Discussion on Availabilit y and Barrier of Environment al I nnovat ion St rat egy

Fut ure economic trend Fut ure environmental trend I ndia Thailand Korea Japan China

Monit oring dat a by I EM SDB Engine

I nf erence Engine

St rat egic dat abase f or t he environment al policy decision is composed of t ables of t echnologies, management inst it ut ions, and scenarios, et c. and an int egrat ed module part (I nf erence Engine, SDBE) where t his inf ormat ion are int egrat ed and analyzed.

I nt egrat ing module of SDB (SDBE) I nt egrat ing module of SDB (SDBE)

The purpose of t he int egrat ing module (I nf erence The purpose of t he int egrat ing module (I nf erence engine of SDB, SDBE) is t o evaluat e and analyze t he engine of SDB, SDBE) is t o evaluat e and analyze t he ef f ect of t he t echnological, sociological and polit ical ef f ect of t he t echnological, sociological and polit ical t ransit ion and int ervent ion f or f ut ure 10 t ransit ion and int ervent ion f or f ut ure 10-

• 50 years,

50 years, especially in t he f ields of energy supply, especially in t he f ields of energy supply, consumpt ion, mat erial recycling, wat er and land consumpt ion, mat erial recycling, wat er and land-

• use,

use, environment al burdens and t he correspondence environment al burdens and t he correspondence measures as inclusively as possible, based on measures as inclusively as possible, based on inf ormat ion described by t he t ables. inf ormat ion described by t he t ables.

What SDBE can do and cannot do What SDBE can do and cannot do

What SDBE can do: What SDBE can do:

• Pert urbat ion analysis of a key concept or

Pert urbat ion analysis of a key concept or idea of environment al innovat ion idea of environment al innovat ion

• Generic and int egrat ed approach on

Generic and int egrat ed approach on t echnological, economical and inst it ut ional t echnological, economical and inst it ut ional aspect s of a t arget concept / idea aspect s of a t arget concept / idea What SDBE cannot do: What SDBE cannot do:

• Macro

Macro-

• economic consist ency of analysis

economic consist ency of analysis

• Det ailed engineering analysis and capit al

Det ailed engineering analysis and capit al cohort st ruct ures cohort st ruct ures

Two driving f orces and pref erences Two driving f orces and pref erences which change t he f ut ure in SDBE which change t he f ut ure in SDBE

• Changes of demands given by demand scenarios
• Changes in t echnical and social ef f iciencies given by

t rend and policy scenarios

• Changes of pref erence given by t rend and policy

scenarios

Service Demand Count er policy

Socio-economic- t echnological Trend

I nt egrat ion module SDBE

Environment al Load

I nt egrat ion module of SDB (SDBE)

Socio- Economic Trend

Count er policy I nst it ut ion

Management syst em

Technology I mprovement

Social Ef f iciency

Engineering Ef f iciency

Lif e St yle

People’s pref erence

Service Demand

Environ- ment al load Socio-economic act ivit y

Mult i calculat ion st ages

I nit ializat ion st age:

System characteristics at the beginning of the time step are set. Information needed for the setting is state variable values in the previous time step, or from demand scenarios, trend and policy scenarios, etc. Substitution of parameter values.

Accompanying calculat ion st age:

System characteristic values derived from trend and policy scenarios, etc. are calculated one by one based on the causal relations assumed. As for the cause and effect relationships of the inference, trend and policy scenarios are starting points of the causes. Algebraic calculation stage.

Main calculat ion st age:

To fulfill demand scenarios, required amounts of quantitative activities in the system are calculated. As for the causal relation of this stage, demand scenarios are the outsets of the causes. Mathematical programming stage.

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

CF_TPMV

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVHB

Convent ional Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVGS

CO2

CF_CO2 Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH

FL_TP MVGS_TP MV FL_OI L_TPMVHB

Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP

FL_TP MV

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

SND_TPMV

NOx

CF_NOX

Gasoline

CF_OI L

FL_OI L_TPMVG S

Elect rici t y

CF_ELE Vir t ual communicat ion Syst em AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_NOX_TPMVH B FL_CO2_TP MVHB FL_NOX_TPMVGS FL_CO2_TP MVGS FL_TP MVHB_TP MV FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV FL_ELE_VRMTSY S

Carbon t ax SNP_C2_CTAX Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission SNC_NOX_CNST Conf luence Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Demand scenario Policy/ Trend scenar io Const raint scenar io Level act ivit y

Element s of SDBE

Act ivit y

• Act ivit y t o produce service or goods. The size of t he act ivit y

(act ivit y level) can be quant if ied or measured.

• Two kinds of act ivit y:

1)Quant it at ive act ivit y has count ably addit ive met rics 2)Level act ivit y has no count ably addit ive met rics t o describe t he level of act ivit y.

• Two kinds of quant it at ive act ivit ies:

1)wit h capit al (st ock), 2) wit hout capit al (st ock)

• Quant it at ive act ivit ies are evaluat ed at t he main calculat ion st age.

Level act ivit y is evaluat ed at t he accompanied calculat ion st age.

• The amount s of input s, out put s and cost s of a quant it at ive act ivit y

are proport ional t o t he amount of t he act ivit y. The I / O coef f icient s are prescribed or est imat ed based on ot her variables and scenarios. Level act ivit y is algebraically calculat ed wit h ot her variables and paramet ers of t he syst em. Quantitative activity is

calculated by mathematical programming of a minimum cost problem.

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

CF_TPMV

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVHB

Convent ional Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVGS

CO2

CF_CO2 Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH

FL_TP MVGS_TP MV FL_OI L_TPMVHB

Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP

FL_TP MV

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

SND_TPMV

NOx

CF_NOX

Gasoline

CF_OI L

FL_OI L_TPMVG S

Elect rici t y

CF_ELE Vir t ual communicat ion Syst em AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_NOX_TPMVH B FL_CO2_TP MVHB FL_NOX_TPMVGS FL_CO2_TP MVGS FL_TP MVHB_TP MV FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV FL_ELE_VRMTSY S

Carbon t ax SNP_C2_CTAX Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission SNC_NOX_CNST Conf luence Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Demand scenario Policy/ Trend scenar io Const raint scenar io Level act ivit y

Element s of SDBE

Stock

• St ock is at t ached t o a quant it at ive act ivit y and has almost same

concept as t hat of capit al.

• The st ock decreases t emporally by deplet ion and increases by

invest ment . Cost is required f or t he invest ment , and proport ional t o t he invest ment .

• Several concept s of st ocks may be exist such as, 1)physical,

2)human, 3)int ellect ual, 4)social inf rast ruct ure, and 6)social relat ion ones. They are t reat ed in t he same st yle, and no dif f erence exist s f rom t he view point of parsing inf ormat ion in t he calculat ion.

• The minimum capacit y among t hese st ocks rest rict s t he maximum

amount s of t he act ivit y (Leont ief assumpt ion).

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

CF_TPMV

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVHB

Convent ional Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVGS

CO2

CF_CO2 Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH

FL_TP MVGS_TP MV FL_OI L_TPMVHB

Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP

FL_TP MV

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

SND_TPMV

NOx

CF_NOX

Gasoline

CF_OI L

FL_OI L_TPMVG S

Elect rici t y

CF_ELE Vir t ual communicat ion Syst em AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_NOX_TPMVH B FL_CO2_TP MVHB FL_NOX_TPMVGS FL_CO2_TP MVGS FL_TP MVHB_TP MV FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV FL_ELE_VRMTSY S

Carbon t ax SNP_C2_CTAX Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission SNC_NOX_CNST Conf luence Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Demand scenario Policy/ Trend scenar io Const raint scenar io Level act ivit y

Element s of SDBE

Flow

• Flow of goods or service bet ween a quant it at ive act ivit y and t he

conf luence or bet ween t he conf luences. When one edge is connect ed wit h a quant it at ive act ivit y, it is input f low or out put f low.

• Flow rat e is at t ached t o a f low. I t denot es t he amount of good or

service moved f rom t he upst ream edge t o t he downst ream edge wit hin a unit t ime.

• The size of t he f low rat e is proport ional t o t he amount of t he

connect ed act ivit y. The proport ionalit y coef f icient is called “conduct ance” (f low rat e / act ivit y).

• Usually, f low is at t ached t o a quant it at ive act ivit y. I ndependent f low

t hat connect s bet ween conf luences exist s, t oo. Conduct ance is not def ined t o independent f low.

• A price is at t ached t o a f low. The f low price is a shadow price of t he

f low rat e in t he minimizat ion problem of t he t ot al cost of t he syst em.

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

CF_TPMV

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVHB

Convent ional Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVGS

CO2

CF_CO2 Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH

FL_TP MVGS_TP MV FL_OI L_TPMVHB

Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP

FL_TP MV

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

SND_TPMV

NOx

CF_NOX

Gasoline

CF_OI L

FL_OI L_TPMVG S

Elect rici t y

CF_ELE Vir t ual communicat ion Syst em AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_NOX_TPMVH B FL_CO2_TP MVHB FL_NOX_TPMVGS FL_CO2_TP MVGS FL_TP MVHB_TP MV FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV FL_ELE_VRMTSY S

Carbon t ax SNP_C2_CTAX Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission SNC_NOX_CNST Conf luence Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Demand scenario Policy/ Trend scenar io Const raint scenar io Level act ivit y

Element s of SDBE

Conf luence

• I nf lows or out f lows are at t ached t o conf luence.
• When t wo or more f lows f low in, a pref erence of t he

inf lux f low can be added. The pref erences are f unct ions of f low cost s, et c.

• I n a conf luence, as a rule, t ot al inf low rat e = t ot al
• ut f low rat e is approved. There are conf luences wit h

gushing out or suct ion, t oo.

• Price can be added t o gushing out f low.

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

CF_TPMV

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVHB

Convent ional Gasoline Vehicle

AQ_TPMVGS

CO2

CF_CO2 Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH

FL_TP MVGS_TP MV FL_OI L_TPMVHB

Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP

FL_TP MV

Passenger Transport at ion by mot or vehicle

SND_TPMV

NOx

CF_NOX

Gasoline

CF_OI L

FL_OI L_TPMVG S

Elect rici t y

CF_ELE Vir t ual communicat ion Syst em AQ_VRMTSYS

FL_NOX_TPMVH B FL_CO2_TP MVHB FL_NOX_TPMVGS FL_CO2_TP MVGS FL_TP MVHB_TP MV FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV FL_ELE_VRMTSY S

Carbon t ax SNP_C2_CTAX Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission SNC_NOX_CNST Conf luence Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Demand scenario Policy/ Trend scenar io Const raint scenar io Level act ivit y

Element s of SDBE

Scenario

• Scenarios are t ime serial inf ormat ion of 1) demand, 2) t rend

/ policy and 3) const raint s t emporally change.

• The scenarios concerning 1)-3) is called element scenarios. The

element scenarios may have inconsist ency among t hem. Theref ore, it is necessary t o select compat ible, necessary and suf f icient combinat ion among t hem according t o t he t arget cases.

• The select ed element scenarios are called act ivat ed scenario

element s. The element scenario not select ed is called inert scenarios.

• The group of t he element scenarios act ivat ed at t he same t ime is

called an examinat ion scenario group.

What we should t ake care t o What we should t ake care t o apply SDBE apply SDBE

• Need syst emat ic and quant it at ive

preparat ion of upst ream and downst ream causal nexus f rom t he view point s of t echnological, economical and inst it ut ional charact erist ics

• Appropriat e abst ract ion of t he syst em

descript ion

• Complement ary role and posit ion wit h
• t her AI M models