Ashmore Group plc
11 February 2016
www.ashmoregroup.com
Ashmore Group plc Results for six months ending 31 December 2015 11 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Ashmore Group plc Results for six months ending 31 December 2015 11 February 2016 www.ashmoregroup.com Overview Weak markets and negative sentiment continue AuM of US$49.4 billion at 31 December 2015 vs US$58.9 billion in June 2015
www.ashmoregroup.com
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0% 5% External (EMBI) Local (GBI- EM) Corporate (CEMBI) 10yr UST MSCI EM S&P 500 Return profile 6m to 31Dec2015 High/low 6m return
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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E GDP growth (%) EM DM Growth premium 0.5 1.8 0.3 4.9 4.7 8.8 9.8 6.8
2 4 6 8 10 12 Fed funds US 10yr Germany 10yr Sov $ IG Corp $ IG Sov $ HY Corp $ HY Sov LC Yield (%) Change in yield since end-2006 Current yield
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58.9 49.4 AuM at 30 Jun 2015 Q1 perf Q1 flows Q2 perf Q2 flows AuM at 31 Dec 2015 58.9 49.4 AuM at 30 Jun 2015 Subscriptions Redemptions Performance AuM at 31 Dec 2015
External Local Corporate Blended Equities Alternatives Multi-asset Overlay/liquidity
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20% 10% 10% 30% 18% 1% 9% 2%
Central banks Sovereign wealth funds Governments Pension plans Corporates/Financial institutions Fund/Sub-advisers Third-party intermediaries Foundations/Endowments
22% 28% 8% 22% 20%
Americas Europe ex UK UK Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
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60 57 46 64 56 98 166 106 19 58 55 44 66 52 112 164 102 15 57 54 45 59 54 106 165 98 17 Group External Local Corporate Blended Equities Alternatives Multi-asset Overlay/ liquidity H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
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Statutory H1 2015/16 £m Seed capital- related items £m FX translation £m Adjusted H1 2015/16 £m Adjusted H1 2014/15 £m %
Net revenue 116.4
108.4 143.9 (25) Investment securities & third-party interests (12.5) 12.5
(43.8) 1.8 1.6 (40.4) (47.6) (15) EBITDA 60.1 14.3 (6.4) 68.0 96.3 (29) EBITDA margin 52%
67%
(2.5)
(2.3) (9) Net finance income 6.1 (6.0) 0.9 1.0 0.8 25 Associates and joint ventures (1.0)
(1.2) 17 62.7 8.3 (5.5) 65.5 93.6 (30) Seed capital-related items
(0.7)
5.5 17.8 (69) Profit before tax 62.7
110.7 (43)
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have been adjusted for the 20% variable compensation on FX translation gains and losses.
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(1) Excludes consolidated funds. See Appendix for reconciliation to statutory consolidated cash flow statement
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365.1 329.7 59.1 11.2 1.5 8.7 14.2 87.0 14.7 Opening cash Operations Taxation Dividends EBT purchases Net seeding Interest FX and other Closing cash
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MTM FX Total
(3.9)
(4.4) (0.9) (5.3) Total in P&L (8.3) (0.9) (9.2) Total in OCI 0.4 8.4 8.8 Group total (7.9) 7.5 (0.4)
3% 12% 6% 20% 33% 15% 11% External debt Local currency Corporate debt Blended debt Equities Alternatives Multi-asset
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(1) Excludes consolidated funds. See Appendix for reconciliation to statutory consolidated cash flow statement
31 December 2015 £m % 30 June 2015 £m % US dollar 136.6 41 137.4 38 Sterling 160.1 49 205.0 56 Other 33.0 10 22.7 6 Total 329.7 365.1 31 December 2015 £m 30 June 2015 £m US dollar 146.3 150.1 Indonesian rupiah 36.4 36.5 Brazilian real
Other 12.5 13.4 Total 195.2 207.0
(1) Excludes consolidated funds. See Appendix for reconciliation to statutory consolidated cash flow statement (2) Total equity less deductions for intangibles, goodwill and associates (3) Per Pillar 3 disclosures as at 30 June 2015
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94.4 24.4 454.9 195.2 329.7 Regulatory capital requirement (3) Excess capital Cash and cash equivalents (1) Seed capital Other net assets
Outperforming Underperforming
Funds outperforming versus benchmark, gross 1 year annualised
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Funds outperforming versus benchmark, gross 3 years annualised Funds outperforming versus benchmark, gross 5 years annualised
14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Total
55% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Total
64% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Total
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5 10 15 20 25
Colombia Turkey Jamaica Brazil Peru South Africa Indonesia Mexico Argentina India Romania Chile Slovakia Poland Czech Republic Bulgaria Croatia Hong Kong China Malaysia Hungary Israel Philippines Russia Thailand Slovenia South Korea Taiwan Singapore
% of GDP Change vs worst point since QE began Current account balance (Q3'15)
10 20 30 40 50 Ukraine Belarus Venezuela Jamaica Pakistan Serbia Hungary Armenia Georgia India Croatia China Poland Mongolia
Vietnam Panama Turkey Malaysia Indonesia Ivory Coast Chile Ecuador Tanzania Azerbaijan Uruguay Egypt Mozambique El Salvador Brazil Zambia 2015 % return
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H1 2015/16 £m H1 2014/15 £m H1 2015/16 US$m H1 2014/15 US$m
External debt 19.9 23.6 30.2 38.1 Local currency 19.8 24.5 30.2 39.6 Corporate debt 11.3 15.9 17.2 25.7 Blended debt 25.6 35.0 39.1 56.5 Equities 11.5 16.6 17.5 26.6 Alternatives 5.0 7.9 7.5 12.9 Multi-asset 4.2 7.8 6.5 12.7 Overlay / liquidity 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.8 Total net management fee income 98.7 133.0 150.4 214.9
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H1 2015/16 £m H1 2014/15 £m H1 2015/16 US$m H1 2014/15 US$m
External debt 0.1 6.8 0.1 11.1 Local currency
Equities
Alternatives 8.5
8.6 7.0 12.6 11.4
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20% 10% 10% 30% 18% 1% 9% 2%
Central banks Sovereign wealth funds Governments Pension plans Corporates/Financial institutions Fund/Sub-advisers Third-party intermediaries Foundations/Endowments
22% 28% 8% 22% 20%
Americas Europe ex UK UK Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
10.8 12.0 4.8 13.3 3.2 1.4 1.2 2.7
External debt Local currency Corporate debt Blended debt Equities Alternatives Multi-asset Overlay/liquidity
18.2 14.0 8.6 3.5 1.7 3.4
External debt Local currency Corporate debt Equities Alternatives Overlay/liquidity
External Debt (USD 10.8bn) Local Currency (USD 12.0bn) Corporate Debt (USD 4.8bn) Equities (USD 3.2bn) Alternatives (USD 1.4bn) Overlay/ Liquidity (USD 2.7bn)
investment grade
Opportunities
Blended Debt (USD 13.3bn)
Multi-asset (USD 1.2bn) Regional / Country focused Sub-themes Global Emerging Markets Sub-themes
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Source: BAML, JP Morgan, Bloomberg
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200 400 600 800 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EM vs US HY spread differential, bps 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EMBI GD spread over UST, bps 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Yield (%)
JPM GBI Global (lhs) JPM GBI-EM GD (lhs) Yield difference: GBI-EM vs GBI Global (rhs)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PER relative: MSCI EM / MSCI World
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+0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0 +8.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 US$ billion
* Reclassification following a change in investment guidelines for those assets
US$bn AuM 30 June 2015 Performance Gross subscriptions Gross redemptions Net flows Other* AuM 31 December 2015
External debt 12.0 (0.2) 0.5 (1.5) (1.0)
Local currency 15.2 (1.3) 0.6 (2.5) (1.9)
Corporate debt 7.2 (0.5) 0.4 (1.6) (1.2) (0.7) 4.8 Blended debt 15.7 (1.0) 0.5 (2.6) (2.1) 0.7 13.3 Equities 3.8 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) (0.1)
Alternatives 0.8 0.1 0.6 (0.1) 0.5
Multi-asset 1.6 (0.2) 0.1 (0.3) (0.2)
Overlay / liquidity 2.6 (0.2) 0.4 (0.1) 0.3
Total 58.9 (3.8) 3.4 (9.1) (5.7)
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US$bn 30 June 2015 31 December 2015 Ashmore sponsored funds 15.2 12.2 Segregated accounts 40.9 35.5 White label / other 2.8 1.7 Total 58.9 49.4
Cash from operations 56.9 (2.2) 59.1 Taxation (14.2)
Interest received 3.4 1.9 1.5 Seeding activities 6.3 (4.9) 11.2 Dividends paid (87.0)
Treasury/own shares (14.7)
FX and other 10.0 1.3 8.7 Increase/(decrease) in cash (39.3) (3.9) (35.4) Opening cash & cash equivalents 380.8 15.7 365.1 Closing cash & cash equivalents 341.5 11.8 329.7
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Statutory H1 2015/16 £m Seed capital-related items £m FX translation £m Adjusted H1 2015/16 £m
Net revenue 116.4
108.4 Investment securities & third-party interests (12.5) 12.5
(43.8) 1.8 1.6 (40.4) EBITDA 60.1 14.3 (6.4) 68.0 EBITDA margin 52%
Depreciation & amortisation (2.5)
Net finance income 6.1 (6.0) 0.9 1.0 Associates & joint ventures (1.0)
Seed capital-related items
Profit before tax excluding FX translation 62.7
57.2 FX translation
5.5 Statutory profit before tax 62.7
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adjusted for the 20% variable compensation on FX translation gains and losses.
Closing rates 31 December 2015 30 June 2015 31 December 2014
GBP:USD 1.4736 1.5712 1.5577
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Average rates H1 2015/16 H1 2014/15 FY2014/15
GBP:USD 1.5291 1.6289 1.5822
Source: Ashmore (un-audited), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley
benchmark reference point have been included; specifically this excludes Alternatives and Multi-asset funds Benchmarks External debt Broad JPM EMBI GD External debt Sovereign JPM EMBI GD External debt Sovereign IG JPM EMBI GD IG Local currency Broad JPM ELMI+ Local currency Bonds JPM GBI-EM GD Blended debt 50% EMBI GD 25% GBI-EM GD 25% ELMI+ Corporate debt Broad JPM CEMBI BD Corporate debt HY JPM CEMBI BD NIG Corporate debt IG JPM CEMBI BD IG Global equities MSCI EM net Global small cap MSCI EM Small Cap
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1yr 3yr 5yr
31 December 2015
Ashmore Benchmark Ashmore Benchmark Ashmore Benchmark External debt Broad 1.9% 1.2%
1.0% 4.8% 5.4% Sovereign 3.9% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 5.7% 5.4% Sovereign IG
0.1% 4.9% 4.7% Local currency Broad
Bonds
Corporate debt Broad
1.3%
1.9% 3.2% 4.5% HY
1.1%
1.0% 2.3% 3.6% IG 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 5.4% 5.0% Blended debt Blended
2.9% 1.0% Equities Global equities
Global small cap
0.0%
This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in Ashmore Group plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities. Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking, which reflect the Company's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. The value of investments, and the income from them, may go down as well as up, and is not
investments or investments denominated in different currencies to rise and fall. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance
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