Ashmore Group plc
Investor presentation 16 June 2017
www.ashmoregroup.com
Ashmore Group plc Investor presentation 16 June 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Ashmore Group plc Investor presentation 16 June 2017 www.ashmoregroup.com Agenda 9.30am Mark Coombs Ashmore today 9.45am Jan Dehn Strong fundamentals & opportunities across Emerging Markets 10.30am Alexis de Mones, Robin Forrest,
www.ashmoregroup.com
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100 600 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600 3,100 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index 1992=100 EMLIP Net EMBI GD SP 500 Cumulative monthly returns since October 1992 Source: Ashmore, Bloomberg, JP Morgan
Outperforming Underperforming
AuM outperforming versus benchmark, gross 1 year annualised
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AuM outperforming versus benchmark, gross 3 years annualised AuM outperforming versus benchmark, gross 5 years annualised
Data as at 31 March 2017 Qualifying AuM has a relevant performance benchmark and a track record over the respective time period 71% 100% 100% 100% 71% 100% 91% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Group 66% 100% 52% 88% 85% 100% 82% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Group 57% 100% 87% 100% 100% 100% 86% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% External Local Corporate Blended Equities Multi-asset Group
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Source: Ashmore, IMF
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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f 2020f 2022f
Emerging Markets Developed Markets 1980 EM = US$1,500 DM = US$10,100 2016 EM = US$11,200 DM = US$47,400
GDP per capita, rebased 1980 = 100
Source: Ashmore, Bloomberg
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50 60 70 80 90 100 110 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Combined balance sheets of four QE central banks (lhs, indexed Dec 2010=100) USD-EMFX (rhs, indexed Dec 2010=100)
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Ashmore
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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Fed funds Germany 5 yr (4.8) Germany 10yr (9.2) US 5yr (4.7) US 10yr (8.8) EM index-weight yield (5.2) Change in yield/rate since end 2006 (%) Yield/rate today (%)
Source: Ashmore, BIS
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85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EM REER (GBI weighted) US REER
Source: IMF, Ashmore
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e GDP growth (%) Developed markets Emerging Markets EM growth premium
Source: BAML, Ashmore
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Default rate (%) US HY EM HY
Source: Ashmore, JP Morgan, MSCI
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Local currency bonds External debt Corporate debt 3-5yr UST 7-10yr UST EM FX USD index (DXY) EURUSD USDJPY EM equities S&P 500 2016 2017 YTD
Source: BAML, Ashmore
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2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GBI-EM GD Weighted CPI inflation (% yoy) GBI-EM GD nominal yield (%) 6.8% 4.1%
Source: MSCI, Ashmore
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40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 EM vs DM real growth premium (%, lhs) MSCI EM vs DM total return (indexed Dec2010=100, rhs)
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5y5y nominal (%) 5y5y break even (%) (0.50) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5y5y real yield (%) Source: Bloomberg, Ashmore
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Taper tantrum Inflation re-pricing until Trump Oil price rebound
Source: Bloomberg, Ashmore
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Date of VIX spike Trigger event Apr 94 Fed hikes Oct 97 Asian crisis Aug 98 Russian crisis Oct 00 Fear of slowing US economy Sep 01 9/11 Jul 02 Fear of slowing US economy Jun 06 Hike triggers recession fears Aug 07 BNP Paribas gates funds over sub-prime losses Sep 08 Lehman May 10 Greece Mar 11 Japan earthquake Aug 11 US debt ceiling and Eurozone crisis Oct 14 Rate hike fears Aug 15 Fed hike fears Jun 16 Brexit Annualised return External debt (EMBI GD) Corporate debt (CEMBI BD) Local currency bonds (GBI EM GD) Equities (MSCI EM) Excess return from active timing (bps) +174 +295 +335 +462 Active timing return (%) 11.1% 10.5% 10.6% 7.2% Passive timing return (%) 9.4% 7.5% 7.3% 2.6% Years of index 23 15 14 23
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External Debt (US$12.9bn) Local Currency (US$13.5bn) Corporate Debt (US$5.5bn) Equities (US$3.1bn) Alternatives (US$1.4bn) Overlay/ Liquidity (US$4.8bn) Global Emerging Markets Sub-themes
investment grade
Opportunities
Blended Debt (US$13.6bn)
Regional / Country focused Sub-themes
Multi-Asset (US$1.1bn)
AuM as at 31 March 2017
Source: BIS, BofAML, World Federation of Exchanges, MSCI, JP Morgan
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External sovereign debt Local currency sovereign debt External corporate debt Local currency corporate debt Equities Mkt cap in benchmark Mkt cap not in benchmark USD 0.8trn 48% in benchmark USD 7.0trn 9% in benchmark USD 2.5trn 14% in benchmark USD 8.0trn 2% in benchmark USD 24.5trn 18% in benchmarks
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EMBI GD index = +10% Venezuela +53% Belize -36%
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analysis of: economics politics interest rates currencies
markets
ability to pay (financial analysis & policy analysis) willingness to pay (local politics)
divergence between market prices and credit risk
to-market volatility
fundamental research capabilities within portfolio management teams
the structural inefficiencies and changes in Emerging Markets instruments
management culture
liquidity is integral to every investment decision
liquidity is important
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Global macro overview Risk call Country / corporate updates
Updated credit views Theme relative value Risks and opportunities across themes:
Theme allocation Portfolio construction
model portfolios
appropriate Changes to model portfolios Instrument selection
Investment decisions Execution process
in subsequent IC meeting Execution Investment Committee (IC) Sub-committee meetings Trading / execution
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Source: Ashmore (SICAV SDF), JP Morgan 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Active position (lhs) EMBI HY spread (bps, rhs) EMBI Ecuador spread (bps, rhs)
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Subsequent GBI-EM 3-month cumulative returns (rhs) EM FX exposure (% NAV, LHS) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Blended debt SICAV allocations External debt Local currency Corporate debt
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Source: Ashmore, Petrobras, Citigroup, NYMEX, JP Morgan 20 40 60 80 100 120 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 USD bps Petrobras/Brazil spread (lhs) Petrobras 2024 6.25% z-spread (lhs) Brazil z-spread (lhs) WTI future (rhs)
0.4 5.3 4.1 3.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1'17
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Source: Ashmore, Citigroup 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 % of par Seniors Subs 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 2.0x 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Spread (bps) Seniors (lhs) Subs (lhs) Sub/Senior spread ratio 90d moving avg (rhs)
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Governance and oversight
Global overview of macro-economic and market trends
Review process Investment ideas Portfolio construction
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8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 MSCI FM MSCI EM MSCI ACWI Source: Ashmore, Bloomberg, IMF, World Federation of Exchanges, World Bank Frontier equities composite, gross of fees, as at 31 May 2017. Returns greater than one year are annualised
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2017 YTD 1yr 3yrs 5yrs Since inception Ashmore Frontier equities MSCI Frontier
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Source: Ashmore SICAV EM Frontier Equity Fund, as at 31 March 2017
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Fund active weight UAE Pakistan Georgia Romania Morocco Kuwait
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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Market value, USD bn Source: Bloomberg, EU-Vietnam Business Network
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Source: APCMA, Topline Research, State Bank of Pakistan, CPEC
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Tonnes (m)
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E CPEC (20yrs) CPEC (15yrs) CPEC (10yrs) USD bn
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Central banks Sovereign wealth funds Governments Pension plans Corporates/Financial institutions Funds/sub-advisers Third-party intermediaries Foundations/Endowments/Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Europe UK Americas Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa Charts represent % AuM by client type/location as at 31 December 2016
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AuM managed in segregated accounts or white label products As at December 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% <3yrs 3yrs-7yrs >7yrs 2014 2015 2016
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Source: Towers Watson, pension fund annual reports, BAML, JP Morgan Points on chart represent specific US / European pension fund allocations to EM debt or EM equities 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average
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Source: evestment data to 31 March 2017
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tracked Quartile rank 1yr Quartile rank 3yrs Quartile rank 5yrs External debt 79 1 1 1 Local currency 34 1 1 2 Corporate debt 20 1 3 2 Blended debt 38 1 1 1 Small cap equities 20 1 2 3 Frontier equities 12 2 2 3
Americas, 36% Asia Pacific, 20% Europe ex UK, 26% UK, 18%
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Private bank, 40% Sub-advised fund, 29% Wealth manager, 8% Platform, 5% Wirehouse brokerage, 4% Trust, 4% RIA/IFA, 4% Fund of funds, 3% Individuals, 3% Other, 1%
US Europe Asia Intermediaries
managers
managers AuM USD 2.2bn USD 2.7bn USD 1.2bn Products
Data as at 31 March 2017
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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3'17 % of Group AuM Intermediary AuM (USD bn) Europe, US, Rest of Asia (lhs) Japan (lhs) Europe, US, Rest of Asia (rhs)
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800 1,200 1,600 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 AuM (USD m)
Investment Universe
Reporting Benchmark
Launch date
Fund structure
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Local asset management platform Distribution office
Global asset management platform
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Equity small cap Equity all cap Local currency Ashmore Benchmark Gross cumulative performance since fund inception to 28 April 2017 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mar 2017 AuM (IDR bn, lhs)
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2017 is consensus estimates
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 50 100 150 200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017c Fixed costs (£m, lhs) VC (£m, lhs) Adj EBITDA margin (%, lhs) Total revenues (£m, rhs)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% H1 2017 Overlay/liquidity Multi-asset Alternatives Equities Corporate debt Performance fees Local currency External debt Blended debt
* Earnings before variable compensation, interest and tax
18% 14% 18% 19% 18% 20% 20% 18.5% 20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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£30 £60 £40 £40 £60 50 100 150 Switch & match Initial Cash Restricted shares Bonus and matching shares from commuted cash
£100 £130
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenues YoY Bonus pool YoY
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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cumulative, £m Attributable profit Dividends paid 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Cash excluding consolidated funds (£m) Seed capital (market value, £m)
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Source: Pillar 3 disclosures and Group consolidated financial statements 65.6 87.0 72.9 94.4 99.9 99.9 447.4 540.0 538.6 579.8 590.8 609.2 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Total Pillar 2 requirement (£m) Financial resources (£m) Market risk Credit risk Operational risk
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100 200 300 400 500 600 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 £m Seed capital (invested cost) Cumulative seed recycled Cumulative seed invested 5% 6% 8% 32% 21% 18% 10% External debt Local currency Corporate debt Blended debt Equities Alternatives Multi-asset As at 31 December 2016
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800 1,200 1,600 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 AuM (USDm) USD 20m USD 40m USD 60m USD 2m USD 8.5m
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89% 11% Institutional Retail 8% 27% 22% 21% 22% UK Other Europe Americas Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa As at 31 March 2017
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Source: Ashmore (un-audited), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley
benchmark reference point have been included in each sub-theme example; specifically this excludes Alternatives and Multi-asset funds Benchmarks External debt Broad JPM EMBI GD External debt Sovereign JPM EMBI GD External debt Sovereign IG JPM EMBI GD IG Local currency Bonds JPM GBI-EM GD Blended debt 50% EMBI GD 25% GBI-EM GD 25% ELMI+ Corporate debt Broad JPM CEMBI BD Corporate debt HY JPM CEMBI BD NIG Corporate debt IG JPM CEMBI BD IG Global equities MSCI EM net Global small cap MSCI EM Small Cap Frontier MSCI FM net
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This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in Ashmore Group plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities. Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking, which reflect the Company's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. The value of investments, and the income from them, may go down as well as up, and is not
investments or investments denominated in different currencies to rise and fall. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance
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