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Behavioral Portfolio Management: A New Paradigm for Managing Investment Portfolios
- C. Thomas Howard
Behavioral Portfolio Management: A New Paradigm for Managing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Behavioral Portfolio Management: A New Paradigm for Managing Investment Portfolios C. Thomas Howard CEO and Director of Research AthenaInvest 5 May 2014 A CFA Institute Production www.cfainstitute.org Slides provided by speaker 1 Asset
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Source: AthenaInvest, Thomson-Reuters Financial, Center For Research In Securities Prices, St Louis Federal Reserve FRED data base.
[VALUE] (10.9) [VALUE] (6.1) [VALUE] (4.5) [VALUE] (3.2)
$0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S&P 500 T-Bond T-Bill CPI
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Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman 2012
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2006 2004 1993 2000 1988 2003 1997 1990 1986 1999 1995 1981 2005 1979 1998 1991 1977 1994 1972 1996 1989 1969 1992 1971 1983 1985 1962 1987 1968 1982 1980 1953 1984 1965 1976 1975 1946 1978 1964 1967 1955 2001 1940 1970 1959 1963 1950 1973 1939 1960 1952 1961 1945 2002 1966 1934 1956 1949 1951 1938 1958 1974 1957 1932 1948 1944 1943 1936 1935 1954 1931 1937 1930 1941 1929 1947 1926 1942 1927 1928 1933
–50% –40% –30% –20% –10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.
Since 1926,US market produced positive annual returns 72% of the time
2012 2008 2009 2007 2013 2010 2011
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Data sources: AthenaInvest, Thomson Reuters Financial, and Lipper 2.7 6.1 8.9 13.9 20.0
5 10 15 20 25
T-Bills S&P 500 Truly Active Funds Best Idea Stocks Best Markets Annual Return
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Competitive Position: Business principles, including quality of management, market power, product reputation, and competitive
history of adapting to market changes. Economic Conditions: Top down approach based on economic fundamentals; can include employment, productivity, inflation, and industrial output. Gauges where overall health of economy is in business cycle, resulting supply and demand situations in various industries, and best stocks to purchase. Future Growth: Companies poised to grow rapidly relative to
exclusive and can both be deemed important in investment process. Market Conditions: Consideration of stock's recent price and volume history relative to the market and similar stocks as well as the overall stock market conditions. Opportunity: Unique opportunities that may exist for a small number of stocks or at different points in time. May involve combining stocks and derivatives and may involve use of considerable leverage. Many hedge fund managers follow this strategy, but a mutual fund manager may also be so classified. Profitability: Company profitability, such as gross margin,
Quantitative: Mathematical and statistical inefficiencies in market and individual stock pricing. Involves mathematical and statistical modeling with little or no regard to company and market fundamentals. Risk: Control overall risk, with increasing returns a secondary consideration. Risk measures considered may include beta, volatility, company financials, industry and sector exposures, country exposures, and economic and market risk factors. Social Considerations: Company's ethical, environmental, and business practices as well as an evaluation of the company's business lines in light of the current social and political climate. Valuation: Stocks selling cheaply compared to peer stocks based on accounting ratios and valuation techniques. The Valuation and Future Growth strategies are not mutually exclusive and can both be deemed an opportunity strategy, but a mutual fund manager may also be so classified.
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Advisor Perspectives — Tom Howard “Improving on Morningstars Ratings” June 22, 2010 “Using Buy Side Analytics to Improve Stock Selection” November 16, 2010 5 4 3 2 1
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Number of Stocks
Portfolio Annual Standard Deviation (%)
Assumes stock standard deviation of 45% and inter-stock correlation of 0.33. Based on Evans, J.L., and S.H. Archer (1968), Diversification and the reduction of dispersion: an empirical analysis, Journal of Finance, 23, 761–767.
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Rank Strategy 1 Future Growth 2 Competitive Position 3 Opportunity 4 Profitability 5 Quantitative 6 Valuation 7 Market Conditions 8 Economic Conditions 9 Social Considerations 10 Risk
Advisor Perspectives — Tom Howard “Forecasting Market Returns July 19, 2011”
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Data sources: AthenaInvest, Thomson Reuters Financial, and Lipper
2.7 6.1 8.9 13.9 20.0
5 10 15 20 25
T-Bills S&P 500 Truly Active Funds Best Idea Stocks Best Markets Annual Return Tracking Error Concentration Leverage Emotional Brakes
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