NEW HORIZONS FOR RURAL REFORM IN CHINA: RESOURCES, PROPERTY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NEW HORIZONS FOR RURAL REFORM IN CHINA: RESOURCES, PROPERTY RIGHTS, AND CONSUMERISM Fredrich Kahrl David Roland-Holst David Zilberman Department Of Agricultural And Resource Economics University Of California, Berkeley China’s Policy Reforms: Progress and Challenges Stanford Center for International Development September 29 – October 1, 2005

Estimated Farm Revenue per Capita for Chinese Crops at US Prices 3,500 3,000 Farm Revenue per Capita 2,500 (2003 USD) 2,000 Rice Fruit 1,500 1,000 500 0 40 50 60 70 Percent Urban Population Sources: NBS, USDA/ERS

Per Worker Value Added for Different Levels of Farm Population 2,000 1,800 Farm Worker Value Added 1,600 1,400 (2003 USD) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent Reduction in Farm Population Source: USD value of Chinese total agricultural value added: NBS

Percent Labor Cost in Output Prices (2003) Agriculture 52.99 Manufacturing 13.49 Services 26.90

Urban Employment Growth with a 50 Hour Maximum Work Week 90 450 Total Working Population 80 400 (percent and millions) 70 350 60 300 50 250 40 200 30 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 50 60 70 80 Actual Prior Work Week (hours)

Components of Demand Adjustment Arising from Labor-Leisure Reform Rural Economy Growth Decline 1 Food Demand 1 Employment 2 Ag. Value Added 2 Local demand 3 Remittance Income 3 Public investment 4 Population growth Urban Economy Growth 1 Employment 2 Leisure 3 Labor intensity of consumption 4 Food demand 5 Public investment

Expenditure Propensities by Household Type Rural Households MPC Urban Households MPC Lowest Income .94 Low Income .88 Low Income .79 Lower Middle .86 Lower Middle .67 Middle Income .83 Middle Income .61 Upper Middle .80 Upper Middle .56 High Income .79 High Income .49 Highest Income .69 Average .62 Average .80 Source: NDRC:2003.

Current and Projected Water Balances: Yellow River Basin 650 600 550 Metric Tons 500 450 400 350 300 2000 2010 2030 2050 Available Water Resources Water Demand, Best Case Water Demand, Worst Case