NEW HORIZONS FOR RURAL REFORM IN CHINA: RESOURCES, PROPERTY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 27, 2023 330 likes •440 views

NEW HORIZONS FOR RURAL REFORM IN CHINA: RESOURCES, PROPERTY RIGHTS, AND CONSUMERISM Fredrich Kahrl David Roland-Holst David Zilberman Department Of Agricultural And Resource Economics University Of California, Berkeley Chinas Policy

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NEW HORIZONS FOR RURAL REFORM IN CHINA: RESOURCES, PROPERTY RIGHTS, AND CONSUMERISM

Fredrich Kahrl David Roland-Holst David Zilberman Department Of Agricultural And Resource Economics University Of California, Berkeley

China’s Policy Reforms: Progress and Challenges Stanford Center for International Development September 29 – October 1, 2005

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Estimated Farm Revenue per Capita for Chinese Crops at US Prices

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 40 50 60 70 Percent Urban Population Farm Revenue per Capita (2003 USD) Rice Fruit

Sources: NBS, USDA/ERS

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Per Worker Value Added for Different Levels of Farm Population

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent Reduction in Farm Population Farm Worker Value Added (2003 USD)

Source: USD value of Chinese total agricultural value added: NBS

SLIDE 4

Percent Labor Cost in Output Prices (2003)

Agriculture 52.99 Manufacturing 13.49 Services 26.90

SLIDE 5

Urban Employment Growth with a 50 Hour Maximum Work Week

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 50 60 70 80 Actual Prior Work Week (hours) Total Working Population (percent and millions) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

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Components of Demand Adjustment Arising from Labor-Leisure Reform

Rural Economy Growth Decline 1 Food Demand 1 Employment 2 Ag. Value Added 2 Local demand 3 Remittance Income 3 Public investment 4 Population growth Urban Economy Growth 1 Employment 2 Leisure 3 Labor intensity of consumption 4 Food demand 5 Public investment

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Expenditure Propensities by Household Type

Rural Households

MPC Urban Households MPC

Lowest Income .94 Low Income .88 Low Income .79 Lower Middle .86 Lower Middle .67 Middle Income .83 Middle Income .61 Upper Middle .80 Upper Middle .56 High Income .79 High Income .49 Highest Income .69 Average .62 Average .80

Source: NDRC:2003.

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Current and Projected Water Balances: Yellow River Basin

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2000 2010 2030 2050 Metric Tons

Available Water Resources Water Demand, Best Case Water Demand, Worst Case

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