NC Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change Brock Nicholson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NC Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change Brock Nicholson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NC Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change Brock Nicholson DAQ, Tom Peterson CCS October 23, 2007 NC Inventory and Forecast of GHG Emissions Waste Management Agriculture Other Industrial Proc. ODS Substitutes Transporation Other

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NC Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change

Brock Nicholson DAQ, Tom Peterson CCS

October 23, 2007

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 2

NC Inventory and Forecast of GHG Emissions

50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MMtCO2e

Waste Management Agriculture Other Industrial Proc. ODS Substitutes Transporation Other Air Travel Transportation Diesel Transportation Gasoline RCI Electicity Imports Electricity (In-State Prod.)

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 3

CAPAG Mitigation Options

  • Final Recommendations (56)

– Residential, Commercial and Industrial (RCI) - 11 – Energy Supply (ES) - 13 – Transportation and Land Use (TLU) - 13 – Agriculture, Forestry and Waste Mgmt (AFW) - 13 – Cross Cutting Issues (CC) - 6

  • Number previously approved by the LCGCC (16)

plus 3 additional LCGCC mitigation recommendations

  • Level of Consensus: 48 UC, 8 Supermajority
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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 4

Total GHG Reduction Potential

  • f 56 CAPAG Recommendations
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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 5

Potential Results of 56 CAPAG Recommendations

GHG Reductions (MMtCO2e) Sector 2010 2020 Total 2007- 2020 Net Present Value 2007–2020 (Million $) Cost- Effective- ness ($/tCO2e) Residential, Commercial and Industrial (RCI, non-electricity

  • ptions only)

0.1 1.5 7.9

–987

N/A Energy Supply (ES, including RCI options with impacts on electricity consumption, and adjusted for RCI and ES electricity options that overlap) 6.5 62.7 375.0

–5.9 –0.02

Transportation and Land Use 11.1 25.5 232.3

–4,350 –19

Agriculture, Forestry and Waste Management 7.8 29.3 212.5 222 1.04 Cross-Cutting Issues Non-quantified, enabling options TOTAL (includes all adjustments for overlaps and recent actions)* 25.5 119.0 827.7 –5,121 N/A

  • - 828 MMTCO2 removed
  • - $5 billion net economic savings
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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 6

CAPAG Report: Technical Appendices

  • Templates for all CAPAG recommendations:

– Policy description – Policy design (goals, timing, coverage…) – Estimation of GHG reduction potential and cost/cost savings of implementation

  • Data sources, methods, assumptions, key uncertainties

– Related policies and programs in place – Significant co-benefits if/as needed – Significant feasibility issues if/as needed – Barriers to consensus if/as needed – Final level of support

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 7

Tons Reduced per Measure for 56 CAPAG Recommendations

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 8

Cost per Ton for 56 CAPAG Recommendations

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 9

RCI Recommendations

  • Demand Side Management Programs for the RCI Sectors - Recommended Case: "Top-

Ten States" EE Investment

  • Expand Energy Efficiency Funds
  • Energy Efficiency Requirements for Government Buildings
  • Market Transformation and Technology Development Programs
  • Improved Appliance and Equipment Efficiency Standards
  • Building Energy Codes
  • “Beyond Code” Building Design Incentives and Targets, Incorporating Local Building

Materials and Advanced Construction

  • Education (Consumer, Primary/Secondary, Post-Secondary/ Specialist, College and

University Programs)

  • Green Power Purchasing (required for state facilities) and Bulk Purchasing Programs for

Energy Efficiency or Other Equipment

  • Distributed Renewable and Clean Fossil Fuel Power Generation
  • Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Energy and Emissions Technical Assistance and

Recommended Measure Implementation

  • *CAPAG recommendations previously approved by the LCGCC in blue
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SLIDE 10

October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 10

ES Recommendations

  • Renewable Energy Incentives
  • Environmental Portfolio Standard
  • Original Analysis
  • 20% Combined Target
  • Load Growth Offset Target
  • Removing Barriers to CHP and Clean DG
  • CO2 Tax and/or Cap-and-Trade
  • Electric Sector Only
  • Economy-wide
  • Legislative Changes to Address Environmental and Other factors
  • Incentives for Advanced Coal
  • Replacement of New 800 MW Pulverized Coal Plant
  • Replacement of Existing 800 MW Pulverized Coal Plant
  • Public Benefit Charge
  • Waste to Energy
  • Incentives for CHP and Clean DG
  • NC GreenPower Renewable Resources Program
  • *CAPAG recommendations previously approved by the LCGCC in blue
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SLIDE 11

October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 11

TLU Recommendations

  • Land Development Planning
  • Multi-Modal Transportation and Promotion (formerly TLU-2)
  • Surcharges to Raise Revenue
  • Rebates/ Feebates to Change Fleet Mix
  • Truckstop Electrification
  • Tailpipe GHG Standards
  • Biofuels Bundle
  • Procure Efficient Fleets
  • Idle Reduction/Elimination Policies
  • Diesel Retrofits
  • Pay-As-You Drive Insurance
  • Advanced Technology Incentives
  • Buses – Clean Fuels
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SLIDE 12

October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 12

AFW Recommendations

  • Manure Digesters & Energy Utilization
  • Biodiesel Production (incentives for feedstocks and production plants)
  • Soil Carbon Management (including organic prod. methods incentives)
  • Preservation of Working Land–Agricultural Land
  • Preservation of Working Land–Forest Land (formerly AFW-7)
  • Agricultural Biomass Feedstocks for Electricity or Steam Production
  • Policies to Promote Ethanol Production
  • Afforestation and/or Restoration of Nonforested Lands
  • Expanded Use of Forest Biomass and Better Forest Management
  • Landfill Methane and Biogas Energy Programs
  • Increased Recycling Infrastructure and Collection
  • Urban Forestry Measures
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SLIDE 13

October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 13

CC Recommendations

  • GHG Inventories and Forecasts
  • GHG Reporting
  • GHG Registry
  • Public Education and Outreach
  • Adaptation
  • Options for Goals or Targets (for CAPAG in support of

LCGCC)

  • *CAPAG recommendations previously approved by the

LCGCC in blue

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 14

State Climate Action Plans

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 15

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

MMtCO2e (Net)

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Clean and Renewable Energy Transportation and Land Use Efficiency Agriculture and Forestry Conservation Waste Management, Industrial Processes, and Other Sources Additional Federal Actions (Aviation, ODS Substitutes, etc.) Emissions after actions

1990 level 2000 level

Leadership States’ “Wedges”

  • $1 to -$5

~6-9% TBD ~6-18% TBD ~11-18%

  • $32 to -

$36 ~20-36% $7 to $21 ~24-30%

  • $10 to -

$30 ~24%

Sample Cost % of Gap

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October 23, 2007 www.ncclimatechange.us 16

State GHG Targets

TBD MT Next Generation Energy Act: 15% below 2005 levels by 2015; 30% by 2025; 80% by 2050 MN 1990 by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2050 ME 1990 level by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2050 MA 1990 levels by 2020; 60% below by 2050 IL 50 to 80% below 1990 by 2050, 2012, 2025 and 2035 targets TBD IA 1990 level by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2050 CT TBD CO

  • E.O.: 2000 by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 80%

by 2050,; - AB-32: 1990 by 2020 CA 2000 levels by 2020; 50% below by 2040 AZ TBD NC 15% below 2005 by 2020, 80% below by 2050 WCI TBD WI

  • E.O.: 1990 by 2020; 25% below 1990 by

2035; 50% below 1990 by 2050 WA 25% below 1990 by 2012; 50% below 1990 by 2028; 75% by 2050 VT 1990 by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2050 RI 1990 by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2100 OR 5% below 1990 by 2010 NY 2000 by 2012; 10% below by 2020; 75% by 2050 NM E.O.: 1990 by 2020; 80% below 2006 by 2050 NJ 1990 by 2010; 10% below by 2020; 75-85% ultimately NEG /ECP