Navigating the potential disruption of driverless cars in Australia Professor Michael Milford ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Disclaimer • The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, employer or organization. • All information presented is general in nature and does not take into account your personal or organization’s situation. • All information is provided without guarantee on the part of the presenter. • The presenter disclaims any liability in connection with the use of this information. ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
What’s Up Australian Activity (2019 update) Current Public and Industry Attitudes What Can Go Wrong www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Self-driving Cars ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Self-Driving Cars Why? ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Why? 2.4 die per minut 2.4 die per minute ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
History NavLab 5, CMU (1996) NavLab 1, CMU (1986) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdQ5rsVgPuk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntIczNQKfjQ DARPA Urban Grand Challenge, 2007 DARPA Grand Challenge, 2004‐2005 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2AcMnfzpN www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2AcMnfzpN ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Current State of Play ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Where the t Where the techn chnology logy is currently is curre http tps: s://w //www.the heverge.com com/2016/9 /9/2 /28/1 8/13076948 6948/sel /self- f-dr driving- g-car car-po poll-au auton onomy-kel elley-bl blue-book ok Autonomy Levels ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Current Challenges and Incidents ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Lives Saved and Taken as Deployment Increases ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsI7N7hhZTg roboticvision.org
May 7 th , 2016: Tesla Model S Truck Crash “Neithe either A Autopilo pilot t nor r the dri the driver n er notice ticed d the whit the white side of side of the tract the tractor r traile trailer r against a against a brig brightly lit sky ly lit sky, so the so the brak brake e was not applied” as not applied” ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org http tps: s://electrek //electrek.co/20 co/2016/0 6/07/0 /01/u 1/under derstan standing- ing-fatal- tal-tesla-acciden sla-accident-au t-autop opilo ilot-nhtsa- t-nhtsa-probe/ be/ ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Visual Sensing Challenge ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
March 18, 2018: Uber Fatality ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Uber Fatality: What Happened? • Radar and LIDAR detect object 6 seconds before impact • Classification order: unknown object – vehicle – bicycle. • 1.3 seconds before impact: emergency braking communicated to car, not supervisor driver • Uber had disabled Volvo AEB • Supervising human driver responds < 1 second before impact https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/24/17388696/uber‐self‐driving‐crash‐ntsb‐report ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
March 23, 2018: Tesla Model X fatal crash • 3 seconds prior, Autopilot speeds up from 62 to 70.8 mph (set to 75 mph) • No evasive maneuverers • No driver hands on wheel for previous 6 seconds Source: NTSB/S. Engleman https://abc7news.com/automotive/i‐team‐exclusive‐victim‐who‐ died‐in‐tesla‐crash‐had‐complained‐about‐auto‐pilot/3275600/ www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
The Big Challenge: Human Interaction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG68SKoG7vE ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Conventional Startup Example: NuTonomy • Partner Par nerships ships for v r vehicles, ri hicles, ride de sharing mark sharing market, go governm rnment ent Controlle Contr lled d ride sharing flee ride sharing fleet • • Formal rigor rmal rigorous us appr approa oach • People eople do don’t n’t ow own c n cars • Singa Singapor pore, e, Bos Boston… www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https://www https:/ www.y .youtube utube.com/ om/watc atch?v= ?v=iP_ iP_lAjIf lAjIfZwU wU ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Conventional Startup Example: Cruise Automation • Rapidly sca Rapid y scaling ing • Software and So re and testing-int sting-intensiv ensive e approa appr oach ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
ZooX ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Car Maker Corporate Example: Toyota & Toyota Research Institute • Long term Long rm outlo outlook, k, cult cultura ural context co Vehi hicle m cle making legacy cy • • Du Dual al assi assist stiv ive ( e (Guardian) and ian) and fully aut full autonomous pr proje ojects (Chauffeur) (Cha ur) • Privat Pri ate c e car r owner ownership sti ship still ll fe feasible www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https://www ht tps://www.y .youtu outube.com/w be.com/watch? atch?v=5s6HbrO =5s6HbrOYads ds ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Tech Company Corporate Example: Waymo/Google • Long his Long histor ory • New builder er o of ve vehicl cles es Exis Existing ng t tech ch and cons and consum umer • infra infrastructure 20 2018 2012 20 www.robo ww boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https:/ https://www www.y .youtube utube.com/ om/watc atch?v= ?v=uHb uHbMt6W Mt6WDhQ8 DhQ8 ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Google Waymo (2019 Updates) ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Between Industry and Academia Example: Vedecom ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Between Industry and Academia Example: Vedecom ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Public and Industry Attitudes ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Public Expectation ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
The Moral Machine http://moralmachine.mit.edu/ ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
General Backpedalling and Expectation Management by the Industry ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Diversification, Pivots and Specialization ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Niche Area Play Example: Nuro.AI • Automated delivery • Partnering with major supermarket chains • Point of differentiation: several exploitable advantages with no passengers ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Niche Area Play Example: Nuro.AI ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKXbacNQGI8 ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Niche Area Play Example: Perceptive Automata ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D‐2gmeTUijc ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Guidelines for Assesing, Reacting and Planning ww www.robo boti ticv cvisio sion. n.org ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR ROBOTIC VISION roboticvision.org
Recommend
More recommend
