[PPT] - NAPA VALLEY GROWTH NAPA VALLEY COLLEGE January 21, 2016 THE GROUND PowerPoint Presentation

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NAPA VALLEY GROWTH

NAPA VALLEY COLLEGE

January 21, 2016

THE GROUND BENEATH OUR FEET: The Future of the Napa Valley

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 1 of 35

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INTRODUCTION

1972 wine tasting.htm

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 2 of 35

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“THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE,” HE MURMURED, “ARE THE ONES WHO STEP OUT OF THE FRAME.” Salman Rushdie – The Ground Beneath Her Feet

DEMOGRAPHICS

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 3 of 35

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1990 2015 2040 Population 111,017 142,301 163,269 White 80.6% 53.3% 40.9% Hispanic 14.6% 34.7% 44.2% Asian/Pacific Islanders 3.1% 7.4% 9.9% Multi-Racial N/A 2.2% 3.2% Black 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% American Indian 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%

NAPA HAS GROWN 28% SINCE 1990, BUT WILL ONLY GROW 15% IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS. BY 2060, HISPANICS WILL MAKE UP 49% OF THE NAPA POPULATION. WHITES WILL MAKE UP 34%.

DEMOGRAPHICS

(Source: State Department of Finance)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 4 of 35

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1990 2015 2040 Population 111,017 142,301 163,269 Ages 0-4 6.9% 5.3% 5.3% Ages 5-17 16.6% 15.8% 14.6% Ages 18-24 9.3% 10.0% 8.1% Ages 25-44 31.4% 24.5% 25.4% Ages 44-64 19.7% 27.1% 23.4% Ages 65 + 16.0% 17.3% 23.2%

DEMOGRAPHICS

IN 1990, THERE WERE 1.5 CHILDREN FOR EVERY SENIOR

CITIZEN. BY 2040,

THERE WILL BE 1.2 SENIORS FOR EVERY CHILD. BY 2060, THERE WILL BE 1.7 SENIORS PER CHILD.

(Source: State Department of Finance)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 5 of 35

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IMMIGRATION ACCOUNTS FOR 37% OF ALL POPULATION GROWTH IN NAPA SINCE 1987.

DEMOGRAPHICS

(Source: State Department of Finance)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 6 of 35

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Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added:

30,000 new residents;
26,000 new homes;
21,000 new jobs;
800,000 more tourists annually; and
230 new wineries.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 7 of 35

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Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added:

30,000 new residents;
26,000 new homes;
21,000 new jobs;
800,000 more tourists annually; and
230 new wineries.

In the next 25 years, the Napa Valley is expected to add:

21,000 more residents;
6,070 new homes;
18,890 new jobs.
12,000 new registered vehicles; and
150 new wineries.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 8 of 35

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Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added:

30,000 new residents;
26,000 new homes;
21,000 new jobs;
800,000 more tourists annually; and
230 new wineries.

In the next 25 years, the Napa Valley is expected to add:

21,000 more residents;
6,070 new homes;
18,890 new jobs.
12,000 new registered vehicles; and
150 new wineries.

Growth will create new pressures on water availability, farmland protection, traffic, housing, climate change, and habitat preservation.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 9 of 35

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Pressures are more intense in Napa today than they were in 1990. Currently, the highest quality vineyards are appraised at $400,000 to $500,000/acre. While as farmland, this is incredibly valuable, it does not compare to raw land in the Bay Area that has been designated for development. Walnut Creek (2015): $1 million/acre Dublin (2014): $1 million/acre Fremont (2014): $3 million/acre San Jose (2014): $4 million/acre Peninsula (2014): $5 million/acre

HOUSING

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 10 of 35

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COUNTY MEDIAN HOME PRICE NOVEMBER - 2015 San Francisco $1,323,860 San Mateo $1,195,000 Marin $1,180,900 Santa Clara $965,000 Contra Costa $758,930 Alameda $736,870 Napa $678,570 Sonoma $541,380 Solano $355,510

BY BAY AREA STANDARDS, NAPA IS AFFORDABLE

HOUSING

(Source: California Association of Realtors)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 11 of 35

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WE HAVE ENOUGH HOMES FOR OUR LOCAL EMPLOYEES

Jobs

(Nov - 2015)

Homes

(2015)

Ratio American Canyon 9,800 6,072 1.61 Calistoga 2,700 2,320 1.16 Napa 39,700 30,374 1.31

St. Helena

2,800 2,839 0.99 Yountville 1,200 1,291 0.93 Unincorporated 14,000 12,363 1.13 TOTAL 70,200 55,259 1.27

(Source: State Department of Finance and Employment Development Department)

Ideal jobs/housing balance is 1.5 jobs/home We need an additional 12,689 jobs to balance.

HOUSING

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 12 of 35

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Nov. 2015

Median Home Price Income Needed 2014 Median Household Income American Canyon $458,600 $78,721 $81,955 Calistoga $617,500 $106,014 $52,131 Napa $532,100 $91,349 $64,058

St. Helena

$1,048,500 $180,020 $78,421 Yountville $757,500 $130,070 $65,568 Napa County $539,000 $92,547 $70,925

BUT HOMES AREN’T AFFORDABLE FOR THE PEOPLE WHO WORK HERE

(Sources: Zillow.com and US Census)

(Assumes 10% down, 4% interest rate, and 30-year loan)

HOUSING

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 13 of 35

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Total Number of Housing Units Occupied Housing Units Vacant Units Vacancy Rate American Canyon 6,072 5,741 331 5.5% Calistoga 2,320 2,020 300 12.9% Napa 30,374 28,349 2,025 6.7%

St. Helena

2,839 2,455 384 13.5% Yountville 1,291 1,083 208 16.1% Napa County 12,363 9,633 2,730 22.1% Total 55,259 49,281 5,978 10.8%

HOUSING

(Sources: Department of Finance)

SECOND AND VACATION HOMES TAKE HOMES OUT OF THE INVENTORY

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 14 of 35

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Number of Housing Units (2015) Number of Housing Units (2040) New Units American Canyon 6,072 7,890 1,818 Calistoga 2,320 2,370 50 Napa 30,374 33,410 3,036

St. Helena

2,839 2,830 Yountville 1,291 1,280 Napa County 12,363 13,020 657 Total 55,259 60,800 5,551

(Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments)

WE NEED TO ADD NEARLY AS MANY HOMES AS CURRENTLY EXIST IN AMERICAN CANYON

HOUSING

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 15 of 35

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The Winery Definition Ordinance has worked extraordinarily well over the past quarter century, relying on a stable balance of interests.

The County needs agriculture to keep farming profitable and to

prevent Napa from being absorbed into the Bay Area metropolitan region.

The Cities need agriculture to attract visitors for their growing

hospitality businesses.

Agriculture and the Cities need the County to manage land use

development to preserve the rural character that brings people here, and to ensure that growth can be supported.

Agriculture and the County need the Cities to provide hotels and

restaurants for visitors and to provide housing and services for employees.

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 16 of 35

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RANK METROPOLITAN AREA 2014 GDP (billions) 2014 POPULATION 207 College Station-Bryan, TX $9.03 242,905 208 Macon, GA $8.96 230,450 209 Lynchburg, VA $8.94 257,835 210 Iowa City, IA $8.88 164,357 211 Sioux City, IA $8.87 168,806 212 Napa, CA $8.81 141,667 213 Yakima, WA $8.76 247,687 214

St. Cloud, MN

$8.74 192,418 215 Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV $8.64 260,070 216 Gainesville, GA $8.28 190,761 217 Columbia, MO $8.03 172,717

HOW BIG IS THE LOCAL ECONOMY?

(Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Office of Management and Budget)

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 17 of 35

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HOW DO WE COMPARE TO OTHER US WINE REGIONS?

METROPOLITAN AREA 2014 GDP (billions) 2014 POPULATION Santa Rosa (Sonoma), CA $21.2 500,292 Salem (Williamette Valley), OR $12.2 404,026 San Luis Obispo (Paso Robles), CA $11.5 279,083 Kennewick (Columbia Valley), WA $10.2 274,295 Grand Junction (Palisade), CO $4.8 148,255 Napa, CA $8.8 141,667 Ithaca, NY $4.2 104,691 Walla Walla, WA $2.2 63,829 Amador (Plymouth), CA N/A 38,091 Fredericksburg, TX N/A 25,520

(Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Office

f Management and Budget, and various)

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 18 of 35

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City TOT 2013 – 2014 Fiscal Year Rank % of 13-14 General Revenues Napa $15.2m #19 23.5% Yountville $6.3m #47 69.5% Calistoga $4.5m #65 52.1%

St. Helena

$1.7m #134 11.5% American Canyon $1.2m #160 3.9%

TOURISM IS IMPORTANT TO LOCAL CITY REVENUES

(Source: State Controller’s Office)

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 19 of 35

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County 2014 TOT Los Angeles $433.4m San Francisco $310.1m San Diego $226.6m Orange $226.1m Santa Clara $96.3m Riverside $72.8m San Mateo $72.3m Monterey $54.9m Alameda $53.5m Napa $39.4m

(Source: State Controller’s Office)

IT’S LESS IMPORTANT TO THE COUNTY

TOURISM

Unincorporated County 2014 TOT % of Budget Monterey $19.9m 1.9% Los Angeles $15.6m 0.1% Placer $12.0m 1.7% Mariposa $11.6m 10.4% Sonoma $11.0m 0.8% Napa $10.5m 2.2% San Luis Obispo $8.0m 1.6% Santa Barbara $7.5m 0.9% Santa Cruz $5.5m %

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 20 of 35

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2 OF THE 11 LARGEST LOCAL EMPLOYERS IN 2016 ARE WINE OR TOURISM RELATED.

Employer

No. Employees

Industry Veterans Home 1,500 - 6,000 Government Napa County 1,000 - 5,000 Government Napa State Hospital 1,000 - 5,000 Public Hospital Napa Unified 1,000 - 5,000 Public School Queen of the Valley 1,000 - 5,000 Hospital Pacific Union College 1,000 - 5,000 Private School Napa Valley College 500 - 1,000 Public School Owens Corning 500 - 1,000 Manufacturer Silverado Resort 500 - 1,000 Hotel Treasury Wine 500 - 1,000 Winery Walmart 500 - 1,000 Department Store

(Source: State Employment Development Department)

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 21 of 35

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Industry 2014 2022 Leisure/Hospitality 14.3% 14.2% Government 13.2% 12.1% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 12.3% 12.4% Private Education/Health Care 12.2% 12.5% Beverage Manufacturing 11.4% 12.4% Self-Employed/Family/Household 8.6% 7.5% Professional/Business 8.2% 7.9% Mining/Logging/Construction/ Other Manufacturing 7.2% 8.2% Farm 6.4% 6.5% Finance/Information 3.9% 3.6% Other 2.5% 2.8% TOTAL 74,800 86,500

1 IN 4 EMPLOYEES IN NAPA WORK IN EITHER THE WINE AND/OR TOURISM INDUSTRIES. BY 2040, THE NUMBER WILL RISE TO 1 IN 3.

(Source: State Employment Development Department)

TOURISM

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 22 of 35

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Tourist Attraction 2014 Disneyland 16.8m Golden Gate National Recreation Area 15.0m Pier 39 10.0m Disney’s California Adventures 8.8m Old Town San Diego State Park 7.4m Universal Studios 6.8m Sonoma Coast State Park 3.5m Sea World San Diego 3.8m San Francisco Maritime National Park 4.3m Yosemite National Park 4.0m ATT Park 3.4m Knott’s Berry Farm 3.7m Dodger Stadium 3.8m Napa Valley 3.3m

HOW DO WE COMPARE TO OTHER CALIFORNIA TOURIST ATTRACTIONS?

TOURISM

(Source: Various)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 23 of 35

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TOURISM

(Source: Alcohol, Tobacco Tax, and Trade Bureau)

THE AMOUNT OF WINE BOTTLED IN THE NAPA VALLEY HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED SINCE 1997

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 24 of 35

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TOURISM

THE NUMBER OF BONDED NAPA WINERIES HAS ALSO DOUBLED SINCE 1997

(Source: Alcohol, Tobacco Tax, and Trade Bureau)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 25 of 35

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TOURISM

Over 60% of hotel guests come from California. More than 45%

come from the Bay Area, primarily Silicon Valley.

Napa Valley has 150 lodging facilities with over 5,300 rooms. As
f 2013, another 14 facilities with 2,100 rooms were planned.
The occupancy rate for full service hotels in the Napa Valley

averages 80%.

In 2014, hotel stays generated $1.2 billion.

(Source: Visit Napa Valley)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 26 of 35

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2014 saw direct to consumer sales of wine reach

$1.82 billion, which is 2% of all wine sold in the US.

63% of the volume and 73% of the value of DTC

came from wineries under 120,000 gallons/year.

A third of all wine is shipped to California.
Napa accounts for 32% of DTC by volume and

more than 50% by value. In 2015, this was more than $1 billion. That is as much as the rest of the US combined.

Half of the wine shipped (by volume) is under

$30/bottle.

TOURISM

(Source: Ship Compliant)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 27 of 35

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TRAFFIC

MOST TRAFFIC IS LOCAL OR PEOPLE LIVING IN OTHER COUNTIES GOING TO AND FROM WORK

(Sources: Napa County Transportation Agency, Napa County General Plan)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 28 of 35

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WHERE DID PEOPLE COMMUTE TO IN 2010?

TRAFFIC

(Sources: US Census, California Employment Development Department)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 29 of 35

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WHERE DID PEOPLE COMMUTE FROM IN 2010?

TRAFFIC

(Sources: US Census, California Employment Development Department)

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 30 of 35

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TRAFFIC

(Source: Napa County General Plan)

TRAFFIC WILL GET WORSE BY 2030

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 31 of 35

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1990, when the WDO was adopted, may seem like a long time ago. Here is what else was happening in 1990:

George H. W. Bush was President;
The Dow Jones was at 2,700;
Gold was under $400/ounce;
The USSR and East Germany both existed;
Nelson Mandela was released from prison;
The World Wide Web was in beta testing;
The top movie was “Home Alone;”
The Oakland A’s were in the World Series;
Joe Montana played in the Super Bowl;
Napa Cabernet grapes sold for $1,600/ton;
The median home price in Napa was $350,000.

2040 is as far in the future as 1990 was in the past.

CONCLUSION

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 32 of 35

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The children who are currently in kindergarten will live to see these changes by the time they turn 30. What steps do we need to take today, to ensure that Napa Valley continues to be

ne of world’s pre-eminent

wine regions, a desirable tourist destination, a place of scenic beauty, home to a flourishing environment, and a strong community in which to raise your family? Solving future challenges to ensure that the Napa Valley will be a better place for the next generation – that’s what this is all about.

CONCLUSION

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 33 of 35

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NAPA’S FUTURE

THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT YOUR FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT. ― Abraham Lincoln

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 34 of 35

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THANK YOU

David Morrison, Director Napa County Planning, Building, and Environmental Services Department (707) 253-4805 david.morrison@countyofnapa.org

Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . Page 35 of 35