Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo , S C g S - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo , S C g S Department of Earth and Environmental Science Graduate School of Environmental Studies N Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan U i it N J Presented at the 8th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel

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Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo , S C g S

Department of Earth and Environmental Science Graduate School of Environmental Studies N U i it N J Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Presented at the 8th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 19‐21, 2009

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Bangladesh

Bangladesh: at a glance Bangladesh: at a glance

Location: 20°34´ and 26°38´ N 88°01´ and 92°41´ E Area: 147 570 sq km Area: 147, 570 sq km Population: 158.6 millions Population density: 1045/ sq km Population growth: 1 8% Population growth: 1.8% Urban population: 27% Major cities: Dhaka (12 millions), Chittagong (7 millions), Khulna (3.5millions) Rajshahi (3 millions) j (3 ) Climate: Tropical monsoon climate, with a hot and rainy summer and a dry winter Average Winter temp. (Max. 26°c Min. 11°c) Average Summer temp. (Max. 36°c Min. 21°c)

Source: World Bank

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Background

Air pollution is the major environmental threat in Bangladesh, particularly big

p j g , p y g cities e.g., Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi…

Air pollution cause annually

~15000 deaths (~5000 in Dhaka)
~million cases of sickness requiring medical treatment
~850 million of minor illness

Economic cost of air pollution in four major cities around US$200‐$800 million

p j per year

Equivalent to 0.7%‐3% of country’s GDP per year

Vehicle emission Brick kiln emission Construction work Vehicle emission

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Air Quality Status in Dhaka

Monthly average of PM10 and PM2.5

200 250 300 350 PM in m icrogram s per cub PM10 PM2.5 65 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM2.5 150 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM10 50 100 150 200 hours average concentration of P m eter A pril,02 July, 02 O ctober,02 January, 03 A pril, 03 July, 03 O ctober,03 January, 04 A pril, 04 July, 04 O ctober, 04 January,05 A pril,05 July,05 O ctober, 05 January, 06 A pril, 06 July, 06 O ctober, 06 January, 07 A pril, 07 July, 07 O ctober, 07 January, 08 A pril, 08

Month

24 h

Dhaka experiences winter peak ozone USEPA certified PM samplers

200 240 280 b

Monthly average Maximum Minimum

1-hour ozone standard

p p

40 80 120 160 1h-O3 in ppb April 02 June 02 August 02 October 02 Decemb… February … April 03 June 03 August 03 October 03 Decemb… February … April 04 June 04 August 04 October 04 Decemb… February … April 05 June 05 August 05 October 05 Decemb…

Real time gas monitors

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Objective

Surrounded by India which is a

y significant air pollutants emitter in Asia

R

i t i f I di

Receives most air masses from India

(during high pollution episode) and Bay of Bengal ( during low pollution episode)

Regional sources of air pollution

may be significant for Bangladesh may be significant for Bangladesh

Both local and regional contribution

f air pollution need to be identified

Average wind field generated by

Main Objective

Average wind field generated by MCIP for January 2004

j To identify and quantify the local and regional source contribution of air pollution in Bangladesh

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Modeling Tools

Meteorological Model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.1 Met Data: NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data (1˚× 1˚) Air Quality Model: Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) version 4.7 Emission Data: REAS emission inventory

CMAQ

Physics option Scheme Microphysics WRF Single‐Moment 3‐ Mechanism Option Ch i l St t id Ai P ll ti

WRF CMAQ

Microphysics WRF Single Moment 3 class scheme Long wave radiation RRTM scheme Chemical mechanism Statewide Air Pollution Research Center mechanism (SAPRC99) Chemical initial Default values for both Short wave radiation Dudhia scheme Surface layer MM5 similarity condition domains (ICONs) Chemical boundary condition Default values for D1 and generated for D2 using BCONs Land surface Noah Land Surface Model Planetary Boundary Layer Yonsei University Scheme BCONs Aerosol module aero4 Boundary Layer Scheme Cumulus Parameterization Grell 3d ensemble cumulus scheme

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Domain Setup

M d l C fi ti St d A Domain‐1 Domain‐2 Area 3600 km 1200 km Model Configuration Study Area Area 3600 km 1200 km WRF Grids 81 ×81×27 79 ×79×27 CMAQ Grids 69 ×69×27 67 ×67×27 Grid Size 45 km 15 km Horizontal Co‐ordinate Lambert conformal Lambert conformal G hi l 6°N t ° N 8°N t 8°N Geographical Co‐ordinate 6°N to 40° N 70°E to 110°E 18°N to 28°N 84°E to 96°E

Dhaka City

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Episode Selection

300 m3 PM10 PM2.5

Monthly average PM10 and PM2.5

Air pollution in Bangladesh has

distinct seasonal variation

100 150 200 250 centration in µg/m

distinct seasonal variation

High pollution episode

bserved during dry winter

50 January ebruary March April May June July August ptember October

vember

ecember PM conc

season

Relatively cleaner atmosphere

during wet summer season Month‐long episodes have been chosen for this sensitivity study

F Sep O No De Month

during wet summer season

December 2003 for model spin up

Month long episodes have been chosen for this sensitivity study to represent typical peak pollution episode in Bangladesh

December 2003 – for model spin up January 2004 – for analysis

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Emission Database and Sensitivity Cases

Sensitivity Cases

Case Emission sensitivity Case-1 Original REAS emission

R i Region‐3

Sensitivity Cases

Case-1 (Base case) Original REAS emission Case-2 Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside

Region‐1

Bangladesh) Case-3 5-times increase of emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)

Region‐2

(Inside Bangladesh) Case-4 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) Case-5 Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India) Case-6 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region 3 (North and Region-3 (North India)

Potential emission source region

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With Original REAS emission

CASE‐1

g

150 200 250 µg/m3

PM2.5_obs PM2.5_mod

CMAQ can capture 24‐hour average PM2.5 trends but underestimate

50 100 150 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 PM2.5 in

SO2_obs SO2_mod

1/1/ 1/3/ 1/5/ 1/7/ 1/9/ 1/11/ 1/13/ 1/15/ 1/17/ 1/19/ 1/21/ 1/23/ 1/25/ 1/27/ 1/29/ Date

CMAQ can not capture hourly variation of gaseous pollutants and largely

100 120 140 160 ppb

gaseous pollutants and largely underestimate

20 40 60 80 SO2 in p 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 Local Time

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CASE‐1

Original REAS emission

Comparison of NO2 with satellite NO2 column data

Original REAS emission

CMAQ SCIAMACHY CMAQ

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Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)

CASE‐2

CMAQ Result – Monthly Average for January 2004

CO 0.2 ppm to 0.5 ppm CO 20 to 40 µg/m3 PM2.5 CO pp 5 pp PM2.5 O3 40 to 45 ppb O3 4 45 pp 3

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5-times increase of emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh)

CASE‐3

g ( g )

Domain‐1: Monthly Average CO O3 PM2.5 Domain‐2: Comparison with hourly observation

O b O d CO b CO d 100 150 3 in ppb O3_obs O3_mod_case_3 100 150 200 250 300 M2.5 in µg/m3 PM2.5_obs PM2.5_mod_case_3 6 8 10 12 14 CO in ppm CO_obs CO_mod_case_3 50 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 O3 Local Time 50 1/1/04 1/3/04 1/5/04 1/7/04 1/9/04 1/11/04 1/13/04 1/15/04 1/17/04 1/19/04 1/21/04 1/23/04 1/25/04 1/27/04 1/29/04 PM Date 2 4 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 C Local time

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Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal)

CASE‐4

Difference between Case1 and Case4

CO O3 PM2.5

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CASE‐5

Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India) Shut off emission in Region 3 (North India) Difference between Case1 and Case5

CO O3 PM2.5

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Contribution of West Bengal (Region-2) and North India (Region-3) in %

CASE‐4 vs CASE‐5

Contribution of West Bengal (Region 2) and North India (Region 3) in %

CO O3 PM2.5

West Bengal

CO O3 PM2.5

North India

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Shut off emission in Region 2 (West Bengal) and Region 3 (North India)

CASE‐6

Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region-3 (North India)

Contribution in %

PM2.5 O3 CO

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Estimated Transboundary Contribution

Contribution in % Polluta nt Region‐2(West Bengal) Region‐3 (North India) Region‐2 + R i g ) ( ) Region‐3 Avg. Max. Avg. Max. Avg. Max. CO 11 34 10 18 21 53 O3 7 16 8 15 15 31 PM2.5 18 43 19 28 35 67

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Conclusions

WRF was able to generate required meteorological inputs for

CMAQ model for this region.

CMAQ captured the PM2 5 trends reasonably well CMAQ captured the PM2.5 trends reasonably well Concentrations of gaseous pollutant were largely underestimated

by CMAQ. These discrepancies were heavily depended on emission input of CMAQ model.

Emission sensitivity of CMAQ was reasonably well which revealed

the underestimation of REAS emission in this region by factor of the underestimation of REAS emission in this region by factor of 3~5.

Significant contributions of transboundary transport of pollution

g y p p were found inside Bangladesh.

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Future Direction of Study

Performance evaluation of Kolkata City (24‐h average

g air quality data is available for 2007‐2008.

Use of another emission inventory for this region

S l ( ) e.g., Streets et al. (2003)

Development and use of own emission inventory.

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