Multivariate option pricing models: some extensions of the αVG model
Florence Guillaume
Actuarial and Financial Statistics workshop, Eindhoven
August 29th-30th, 2011
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Multivariate option pricing models: some extensions of the VG model - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Multivariate option pricing models: some extensions of the VG model Florence Guillaume Actuarial and Financial Statistics workshop, Eindhoven August 29th-30th, 2011 1 / 41 Time change in finance time-changed Brownian motion W ( T ( t )) in
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no loss of information over time ⇒ non decreasing process amount of new information independent on the amount of information previously released ⇒ independent increments amount of released information during [t, t + dt] only depends
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X starts at 0: X0 = 0 a.s.; X has independent increments; X has stationary increments. ⇒ Xt+s − Xs ∼ infinitely divisible distribution and has (φ(u))t as CF, where φ(u) is the CF of X1.
log(φX(u)) = iγu − σ2 2 u2 + +∞
−∞
where γ ∈ R, σ2 ≥ 0 and ν is a measure on R\ {0} satisfying +∞
−∞ inf
ν(dx) < ∞
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N
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t
φVG(u; σ, ν, θ) =
2 −1
ν
VG(σ, ν, θ) VG(σ, ν, 0) mean θ variance σ2 + νθ2 σ2 skewness
θν
2
kurtosis 3
νσ4 (σ2+νθ2)2
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1 multivariate BM subordinated by an univariate time change
2 αVG model (Semeraro, 2008):
t
t
1
3 multivariate L´
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1 relax the constraints imposed on the subordinator
2 consider Sato processes instead of L´
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St = S(1)
t
S(2)
t
. . . S(N)
t
=
S(1) exp
t
t
exp
t
t
S(N) exp
t
t
Yt = Y (1)
t
Y (2)
t
. . . Y (N)
t
= θ1G (1)
t
+ σ1W (1)
G (1)
t
θ2G (2)
t
+ σ2W (2)
G (2)
t
. . . θNG (N)
t
+ σNW (N)
G (N)
t
Gt = G (1)
t
G (2)
t
. . . G (N)
t
= X (1)
t
+ α1Zt X (2)
t
+ α2Zt . . . X (N)
t
+ αNZt where W (i)’s are independent standard BM, αi > 0, Z1 ∼ Gamma(c1, c2), c1, c2 > 0 and X (i)
1
∼ Gamma(ai, bi), ai, bi > 0 are independent r.v. and are independent of the W (i)’s.
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N
1
i u2 i , t
i u2 i
φY (i)(u, t) =
2σ2 i u2
bi −ait 1 − iαi c2
2σ2
i u2
−c1t
t
bi = 1 − αi c1 c2
c1 c2
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t , Y (j) t
t
t
t , Y (j) t
c2
2 t
t
i
b2
i + α2
i c1 c2
2
i
bi + αi c1 c2
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αi
1 (3)
αi ) (4)
αi , c2 αi ) ⇒
i u2
αi t
1
i
bi + σ2 i θ2
j
bj + σ2 j
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uθi+i 1
2 σ2 i u2
bi
c2
2σ2 i u2−c1t
t
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−∞
d
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|x|
C exp(−Mx) |x|
t
1
2
ν . 15 / 41
t
t
t
G (1)
G (2)
G (N)
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φY(u, t) = E [exp(iu′Yt)] =
N
φX (i)
2σ2
i t2γiu2 i
N
αi
2σ2
i t2γiu2 i
φY (i)(u, t) =
2 σ2 i t2γi u2
bi −ai 1 − i αi c2
2 σ2
i t2γi u2
−c1
bi = 1 − αi c1 c2 ⇒ bi
c2
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t , Y (j) t
t
t
t , Y (j) t
2
t
i
i
i
2
i
ij
evy ij
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αi
2σ2 i t2γiu2
t
i
bi + σ2 i θ2
j
bj + σ2 j
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uθitγi +i 1
2 σ2 i t2γi u2
bi
c2
2σ2 i t2γiu2−c1
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t
uθi+i 1
2 σ2 i u2
bi
c2
2σ2 i u2−c1
bi σi, 1 ai , ai bi θi
c2 αiσi, 1 c1 , c1 c2 αiθi
1 d
1
2 , where U(i) 1
bi σi, 1 ai , ai bi θi
2
c2 αiσi, 1 c1 , c1 c2 αiθi
1 ’s
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1 simultaneous calibration of each option surface:
N
N
j=1
j
j
N ≡ number of underlying stocks M(i) ≡ number of quoted options for the ith stock P(i)
j
≡ jth market option price of the ith stock ˆ P(i)
j
≡ jth model option price of the ith stock
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2 calibrate parameters which do not influence any marginal CF,
N2−N 2 N
1 maxi αi AND only 1 parameter to fit N2−N 2
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MRMSEJ =
N
RMSE(i) N + αρMRMSE∗
N2−N 2 N
(ρjk − ˆ ρjk)2
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Tρ
S(i)
t0
S(j)
Tρ
S(j)
t0
Tρ , Y (j) Tρ
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02/06/08 11/08/08 21/10/08 02/01/09 17/03/09 28/05/09 07/08/09 19/10/09 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Trading day S&P 500 implied correlation index S&P 500 implied correlation index T = January 2009 T = January 2010 T = January 2011 26 / 41
04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.5 1 1.5
Trading day
MRMSE Option surface calibration performance − Lévy models (αρ = 1) multivariate BS
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.5 1 1.5 Trading day MRMSE Option surface calibration performance − Sato models (αρ = 1) multivariate BS
generalized αVG Sato generalized αVG Sato (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 20 40 60 80 Trading day VIX VIX index
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Trading day
MRMSE Option surface calibration performance − Lévy models (αρ = 1) multivariate BS
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Trading day MRMSE Option surface calibration performance − Sato models (αρ = 1) multivariate BS
generalized αVG Sato generalized αVG Sato (step2)
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Trading day RMSEρ Implied correlation calibration performance (αρ = 1)
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Trading day RMSEρ Implied correlation calibration performance (αρ = 1)
generalized αVG Sato generalized αVG Sato (step2)
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 20 40 60 80 100 Trading day c1 c1 − Lévy models (αρ = 1)
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2) 1/max(αi) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trading day c1 c1 − Sato models(αρ = 1)
generalized αVG Sato generalized αVG Sato (step2) 1/max(αi)
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Trading day Maximal attainable ρ Maximal attainable correlation − Original Lévy model 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Trading day Maximal attainable ρ Maximal attainable correlation − Original Sato model ρ (Apple, Exxon) ρ (Apple, Microsoft) ρ (Apple, Intl) ρ (Exxon, Microsoft) ρ (Exxon, Intl) ρ (Microsoft, Intl) 31 / 41
04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Trading day MRMSE Option surface calibration performance (αρ = 1) multivariate BS
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Trading day RMSEρ Implied correlation calibration performance (αρ = 1)
generalized αVG generalized αVG (step2)
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1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.145 0.15 0.155 0.16 0.165 0.17 0.175 αρ MRMSE MRMSE(αρ) − generalized αVG model 26/08/2009 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 αρ RMSEρ RMSEρ(αρ) − generalized αVG model 26/08/2009
Figure: Influence of αρ for the generalized αVG model.
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WC = exp(−rT)EQ max
T
− S(1) S(1) , S(2)
T
− S(2) S(2) , S(3)
T
− S(3) S(3) , S(4)
T
− S(4) S(4)
BC = exp(−rT)EQ max
T
− S(1) S(1) , S(2)
T
− S(2) S(2) , S(3)
T
− S(3) S(3) , S(4)
T
− S(4) S(4)
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 Trading day Worst−of call 6 months ATM worst−of call
generalized αVG
generalized αVG Sato 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.5 1 1.5 Trading day Best−of call 6 months ATM best−of call
generalized αVG
generalized αVG Sato
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T
T
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Trading day Spread option 6 months Exxon Apple spread option
generalized αVG
generalized αVG Sato 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Trading day Spread option 6 months Exxon Microsoft spread option
generalized αVG
generalized αVG Sato
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04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 Trading day WC 1 year ATM worst−of call option price
generalized α VG generalized α VG (step2) 04/06/08 10/09/08 24/12/08 08/04/09 22/07/09 28/10/09 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 Trading day BC 1 year ATM best−of call option price
generalized α VG generalized α VG (step2)
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generalized αVG model: CFs which remain of L´ evy type but become dependent on the whole parameter set ⇒ market-implied calibration does not require anymore the existence of a liquid market for multivariate derivatives volatility (trading activity) depends on both the idiosyncratic and common subordinators ⇒ in line with empirical evidence
generalized model: better fit of univariate option surfaces except during high volatility regime periods + correlation goodness of fit significantly improved by performing a second calibration (penalty term assessing the correlation goodness of fit) shortfall of the decoupling calibration procedure for the original αVG model: condition that the business time grows on average as the calendar time implies an upper bound on the common parameter c1 which is a function of the αi’s ⇒ decoupling calibration limits severely admissible value range of c1
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[1] Carr, P., Geman, H., Madan, D.B. and Yor, M. (2007). Self-decomposability and Option Pricing. Mathematical Finance, 17:1, 31-57. [2] Chicago Board Options Exchange (2009) CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index. Working paper, Chicago. [3] Leoni, P. and Schoutens, W. (2008) Multivariate smiling. Wilmott magazine [4] Luciano, E. and Semeraro, P. (2010) Multivariate time changes for L´ evy asset models: Characterization and calibration. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 233, 1937-1953. [5] Madan, D.B. and Senata, E. (1990) The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns. Journal of Business, 63, 511-524. [6] Semeraro, P. (2008) A multivariate Variance Gamma model for financial applications. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 11, 1-18.
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