Modelling of UK Offshore Wind Farms for Cost- Insert image (Send - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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(Send backwards un4l image appears behind 4tle. Do not cover the footer banner.) 4 May 2019

Modelling of UK Offshore Wind Farms for Cost- effective Decarbonisation

• Dr. Amal Mansor

Science & Innovation for Climate & Energy (SICE)

Why we model?

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Support for Low Carbon Technologies

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Affordability Carbon Reduc4on Energy Security

Low carbon technology innova2on funding

• Renewables
• Built environment
• Smart energy systems
• Industry & CCS
• Energy Entrepreneurs Fund

Low-carbon electricity genera2on support

• Renewables Obliga4on (RO)
• Feed in Tariffs (FiT)
• Contracts for Difference (CfD)

Levy Control Framework (LCF)

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Renewable Obligations (RO)

• Obligation on suppliers to buy a proportion of their electricity from renewable sources.
• BEIS publishes the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

Contracts for Difference (CfD)

• Mechanism by which the government buys power from renewable technologies at a guaranteed strike price.
• BEIS sets the Admin Strike Price. If wholesale price is below Admin Strike Price, the price difference is

passed onto consumer bills.

Feed-in Tariffs (FiT)

• Payments to ordinary energy users for the renewable electricity they generate
• LCF was introduced in 2011 to regulate the costs of suppor4ng low carbon electricity paid for through

consumers’ energy bills

• Aim to achieve 30% renewable electricity by 2020

LCF Governance Process

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LCF Assump4on Review Group LCF Working Group Electricity Evidence Board Electricity Policy Board

Finance & Business CommiSee Secretary of State and Ministers Execu4ve CommiSee

Levy Control Board (HMT and BEIS)

LCF Budget Caps

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 £m (2011/12 prices)

Year

LCF Budget and Expenditure

Budget Actual/projected expenditure

Key Drivers of Spend Projec2ons:

• 1. Deployment
• Commissioning dates
• Capacity
• 2. Load factors
• The ra4o of the amount of electricity produced to

its total poten4al, based on nameplate capacity,

• ver one year
• 3. Wholesale Price
• 4. Policy changes

Cost Control Measures

• Closure of FiTs
• Closure of RO scheme
• Removal of grandfathering for biomass projects
• Early closure of small scale solar PV
• Early closure of onshore wind
• Removal of solar PV on CfD scheme

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Why we model?

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£££ = Windiness x Load Factor

Offshore wind is 36% of RO budget Offshore wind is 25% of CfD budget

What we model?

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Previously in BEIS…

• Load factors were based on average wind speed

and historic data

• But, wind energy depends on swept area of the

turbine and wind speed: P=​1/2 ​𝐷↓𝑞 𝜍𝐵​𝑤↑3

• Power curve – relationship between wind speed

and power output of a turbine: § Cut-in speed § Rated output speed § Cut-out speed

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Power Curve

Power Curve - Existing Farms

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Met Office Virtual Met Mast (VMM) Enappsys Metered Volume

Half hourly settlement generation data Site specific hourly VMM wind speed data

POWER CURVE

Power Wind speed

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

• The power generation data is obtained commercially

from Enappsys and is based on metered volume of power generation connected to the National Grid

• The wind speed data is provided by the Met Office

Virtual Met Mast (VMM) which is a site-specific hub height wind speed modelled data which has been extensively verified and compared against historical data.

• For each year of operation, a power curve is plotted by

time matching the power generation to VMM wind speed for that year so that the relative magnitude of power generation to wind speed for each farm is known

Power Curve – Existing Farms

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Barrow Offshore Wind Farm Greater Gabbard Offshore Wind Farm

Power Curve - New Build

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Engineering Functional Model Renewable Energy Planning Database POWER CURVE

Power

Wind speed

Power=​1/2 ​𝐷↓𝑞 𝜍𝐵​𝑤↑3

• Capacity
• Turbine size
• Hub Height

Long-term Offshore Wind Farm Load Factor

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14

+

MET office n-years of wind speed data (since 1985) to give a wind speed probability distribution for a specific location

Power

Wind speed Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Long-term Load Factor (LLF): Load factor for an average year based

• n long-term wind

speed distribution

Probability distribu4on

Power

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Wind speed

Time

1985

Present

Outages Consideration

• Existing farm
• Outages calculated from the proportion of power below 0

between cut-in and cut-out speeds relative to total power

• New build
• Average outages from existing farms or
• Differences between load factor from generation data and load

factor from modelled power curve

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Data Flow - Summary

Enappsys DATA SOURCE Ofgem OLF HH Power Curve Met Office f-year VMM n-years VMM SLF WPD LLF Outages Monthly generation LLF_out INPUT OUTPUT PROCESS

HH – Half-hourly generation VMM – Virtual Met Mast wind speed n-years – all available VMM data (since 1985) f-year – financial year WPD – Wind speed probability distribution

validation

• utliers removed

LLF – long-term load factor LLF_out – long-term load factor corrected for outages SLF – specific load factor OLF – load factor from Ofgem data

combine

Summary

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• Load factors are important in Levy Control Framework spend forecast
• The model uses over 30 years of wind speed data to generate a site-specific power

curve and takes into account technological learning to es4mate load factor

• The model is currently being extended into baSery storage
• Future work: develop models for other technologies. Solar PV model is currently in

development

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Ques2ons?

noramalina.mansor@beis.gov.uk