Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments MODARIA WG 5 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments “MODARIA” WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides

• Vienna. November, 9th, 2015

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

The context

“As

the effective dose cannot be measured directly, values of this quantity must be inferred with the aid of models, usually involving environmental, metabolic, and dosimetric components.

Ideally, these models and the values chosen for their parameters should be realistic, so that the results they give can be described as ‘best estimates’. Where practicable, estimates and discussion should be made of the uncertainties inherent in these results”

ICRP 103 (par. 320)

International Commission on Radiological Protection. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. 2007.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

First meeting 13 Presentations of general considerations on uncertainty calculations and

• f codes were carried out within the group:
• R. Heling – Communication of results which include uncertainties
• C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – General considerations on uncertainties
• I. Bonchuk – Considerations on pdfs in TRS472 and other docs
• G. Shen – Sensitivity considerations in Impact
• S. Chouhan – Features of CSA-DRL Code
• C. Yu – RESRAD Probabilistic Analysis Methodology
• M. Iosjpe – Sensitivity analysis in marine modeling
• B. Zorko – Uncertainties in environmental monitoring data
• V. Avramov – Environmental data from Bulgarian NPP
• F. Fiengo – Uncertainties analysis by using MCMC
• P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball
• C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – Symbiose

Juan C. Mora – CROM 7

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Second meeting (Madrid - Ciemat) 3 courses + 1 technical visit (Almaraz NPP): Juraj Duran - SU_MMC

• P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball

Gene Shen – Impact Juan C. Mora – CROM 7 Discussion on the tasks: Correlations – S.L. Chouhan A priori sensitivity analysis – L. Marang Pdfs for Symbiose – C. Mourlon Methodology – A. Curti

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

14 Presentations + joint meetings (WG2 + WG4):

• I. Bonchuk “Atmospheric release”
• P. Carny, D. Suchon “ESTE code”
• D. da Costa “Genii”
• S. Chouhan “Correlation factors and SA”
• A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt “Communication in routine releases”
• D. Galeriu “Romanian experience with CANDU”

J.C. Mora “Chinon – CROM7”

• C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel “Chinon – Symbiose”
• C. Mourlon “The Forge”
• G. Proehl “Revision of SRS 19”
• J. Simmonds “Realistic retrospective dose assessment”
• K. Thiesen “Data Sets for Uncertainty Analysis”
• J. Tomas “Comparison of models and data including uncertainties”
• C. Yu “Conservatism of the assessments”

Third meeting

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

12 Presentations + 1 Technical visit (Mochovce NPP): Anna Maria Blixt Buhr “PREDO – PREdiction of DOses from normal releases of radionuclides to the environment” Rodolfo Avila and Anna Maria Blixt Buhr “Sensitivity and Uncertainty” Čarný P. et al. “Implementation of variable analysis and probabilistic approach to calculation of radiological impacts in case of normal operational effluents” Čarný P. et al. “The realistic scenario from a French NPP (Chinon, liquid release) - preliminary result using ESTE AI”

• JC. Mora “Dose assessments”
• P. Kraweski “Scenario from a French NPP (liquid release). Chinon B site”
• F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “The CHINON NPP realistic scenario - consideration of the

atmospheric releases”

• D. da Costa “Dose Assessment. Discharge of liquid effluents from Chinon NPP presenting the

results obtained by using GENII” E.Smejkalová et al. “Case study - application of remote sensing: from satellite data to classified areas with agricultural crops up to final use in ESTE Annual Impacts”

• B. Zorko “Liquid effluents – Model calculations”
• C. Mourlon and F. Vermorel “The INPRO atmospheric scenario - Preliminary results”
• A. Curti et al. “Communication of Results of Calculations which Include Uncertainty Analysis.”

Fourth meeting (Bratislava - Slovenské elektrárne )

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

18 Presentations + 2 joint meetings (WG4 + WG10):

• F. Vermorel “The CHINON NPP realistic scenario ”
• I. Bonchuk “Chinon scenario by using revised SRS19”
• L. Lipták “Chinon results using ESTE AI”
• C. Mourlon “CHINON NPP results using SYMBIOSE ”
• C. Mourlon (on behalf of M. Cornu) “Deriving pdfs fos Symbiose”
• C. Yu “Deriving pdfs for RESRAD”
• A. Melintescu “Deriving pdfs for H3”
• V. Nicoulaud-Gouin “Sensivity analysis using different methods”
• T. Tanaka “Sensitivity analysis – Ongoing task”

P.M. Ravi “Bhabha atomic centre activities – Providing in situ data!”

• S. Chouan “Uncertainties and correlations using Cs137 values”
• B. Zorko “Environmental monitoring data in dose assessments”
• B. Howard (WG4 leader) “SRS19 update for animal TF”
• A. Blixt-Buhr “Methodology ideas”
• A. Curti “Communication in routine releases”

Fifth meeting

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

13 Presentations + Technical visit (Bugey NPP)

• M. Taylor “EdF D&D activities”
• D. Bilbault “EdF/CIDEN environment group”
• F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “SYMBIOSE results on the CHINON NPP realistic

scenario”

• P. Carny et al. “The realistic scenario from a French NPP, Chinon- results using

ESTE AI”

• B. Zorko “Uncertainty analysis of data obtained by gamma-spectrometry near the

detection limit in radioactivity environmental monitoring programme”

• V. Nicoulaud-Gouin “Sensitivity analysis on the Chinon scenario”
• T. Tanaka “Methods and procedure for performing sensitivity analysis to identify key

parameters in the used models”

• A. Curti et al. “Communication of results of doe calculations which include

uncertainty analysis”

• P. M. Ravi et al. “Summary of calculation of deterministic and probabilistic dose

based on Chinon scenario”

• F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “SYMBIOSE Presentations” (4)

Sixth meeting (Lyon – EdF/CIDEN)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Plenary meetings - 25 Participants (15 countries) Interim meetings – 12 Participants (6 countries)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identified tasks

Identify possible tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments methods and codes for routine radioactive discharges. Identify cases and scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability

• f parameters is available for the testing of methodologies.

Discuss the distributions of parameters and data. Carry out exercises where sensitive parameters could be identified and analysed, and perform an intercomparison of different methods for uncertainty and variability calculations. Discuss how the results of calculations of this kind could be presented and finally interpreted by decision makers.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identified tasks

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr,) Identify possible tools (All) Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and I. Bonchuk) Sources of uncertainties (C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel) Sensitivity analysis (T. Tanaka and V. Nicoulaud-Gouin, L. Marang) Distributions of parameters and data to be used (C. Mourlon and I. Bonchuk) Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski) Environmental monitoring data (B. Zorko and P. Chyly) Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All) Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Progress

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed as designed Parameters: best estimates Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor (best estimate the rest) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from reliable measurements or estimated Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed as designed Parameters: pdfs Habit data: fixed (As in Deterministic case, not variability – TO BE TESTED) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from reliable measurements or estimated Parameters: Preferably pdfs Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Progress

Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon)

• Joint meeting with WG4 (2013): Identified the

need to have a pdf for certain parameters

• Anca Melintescu (2014) (H3 pdfs)
• Charlie

Yu (2014) (RESRAD Probabilistic

• Analysis. Input Distributions — PDFs vs. CDFs)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Environmental monitoring data (B. Zorko and P. Chyly)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Sensitivity analysis (T. Tanaka and V. Nicoulaud-Gouin, L. Marang)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

Progress

• On going work
• Previous generic work identified
• Task will be focused in communication of results including

uncertainties for routine releases.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Scientific production Juan C. Mora et al. “Towards a practical guidance for including uncertainties in the results of dose assessment of routine releases.” (Abstract presented to the International Conference on Radioecology & Environmental Radioactivity (ICRER) in Barcelona. 7-12 Sept. 2014.) B. Zorko et al. “Uncertainty analysis

• f

data

• btained

by gamma- spectrometry near the detection limit in radioactivity environmental monitoring programme” Other works promoted by the WG

• How conservative is conservative – on going
• What pdfs should be selected (“Evaluating variability and uncertainty in

radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE” JER 01/2015; 139:91- 102) – not finished

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Continuous advance of each task Peer review of the report Possible articles (ICRER, Pawel, Benjamin, Anca, Adriana, Iurii, Juan C.) Refinement of calculations with different tools and new data Comparison deterministic/probabilistic

2013

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Continuous advance of each task Peer review of the report Possible articles (Pawel, Benjamin, Valerie & Taku, Adriana & Anna Maria, Iurii) Refinement of calculations with different tools and new data Comparison deterministic/probabilistic according to our developments

2014

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Formatting the report Including conclusions and executive summary Peer review of the report Finalize articles (Pawel, Benjamin) Ending the report

2015

Thank you!

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts

arising from routine discharges of radionuclides