MODARIA Working Group 9 population modelling - Status and meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MODARIA Working Group 9 population modelling

• Status and meeting outcomes -

Frédéric Alonzo (IRSN), Jordi Vives i Batlle (SCK-CEN EN)

14 November 2014 Third Technical Meeting of the IAEA Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments program - MODARIA IAEA, Vienna

MODARIA working group 9

Main objectives: to describe a methodology for extrapolating from laboratory-derived effects endpoints at the organism level to ecologically relevant population responses to provide generic population models for radiological assessment on a range of representative taxonomic groups based on a review of existing population models and a development of new population models to develop scenarios for model applications and inter-comparisons MODARIA WG9 capitalises on new knowledge and developments from population modelling tasks in the continuation of two programmes: IAEA EMRAS II programme and EC-funded STAR project The population modelling group is coordinated by Frederic Alonzo and Jordi Vives i Batlle

Task 1: Methodology for population modelling (1/2)

Subtasks: 1.1 - Definition of “population” (model) in the context of radiological protection → Previously agreed definitions. → Modelling progresses mainly on population defined as a group of individuals of the same species collectively responding to a common constant level of radiation stress (in the perspective of testing dose criteria); → implications for testing DCRLs criteria submitted for publication in Ecological modelling (21/10/2014) and presented at ICRER (11/09/2014) → During this meeting, we briefly discussed the need to accompany the definition with necessary cautions in the final report in order to avoid misuse/misinterpretations in the future.

Task 1: Methodology for population modelling (2/2)

Subtasks: 1.2 – Mechanistic modelling to address different exposure types (chronic and acute; alpha and gamma etc.) → DEBtox successfully applied to nematodes exposed to chronic gamma presented by F. Alonzo in June 2014 → T. Sazykina and A. Kryshev presented an analytical solution to their population modelling approach with damage repair allowing incorporation of acute and chronic effects 1.5 – Extrapolation of population modelling to wildlife species → J. Vives i Batlle presented a simple exploratory illustration of the importance

• f reproduction seasonality for population sensitivity to radiation

Task 2: Set of population model parameters and databases

(1/3)

Subtasks: 2.1 - Guide to parameter collection from the literature → During this meeting, production of the final version of the Excel template to accommodate data with detailed references → Agreement to fully populate the template for February 2015

value n Deviation Min Max Unit Notes value n Dev

1 1 Amphibia Frog Bufo americanus American toad 2 2 Amphibia Frog Rana japonica Japanese Brown frog 3 3 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 4 4 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 5 5 Amphibia Frog Rana aurora Red-legged frog 6 5 Amphibia Frog Rana temporaria Common frog 7 5 Amphibia Frog Bufo boreas Western toad 8 6 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 9 7 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 10 8 Amphibia Frog Gastrophryne carol Eastern narrowmouth toad REF ID Life stage or reference to age DATA ID Wildife group Representative of which ICRP RAP? Duration of life stage (including hatching time for the egg stage) Species latin name Species common name Age a

Task 2: Set of population model parameters and databases

(2/3)

Subtasks: 2.2 - Collection of life history, ecology parameters and radiation effects datasets for animals species → Data already filled for some taxonomic groups (including several ICRP RAPs, such as Frog by K. Stark) → Presentation by F. Alonzo of a template to record how parameters are used to build Leslie matrices

Lumbricus terrestris average life span 32 months weeks (Ref 2) average time to hatching 4 months (Ref 3) average time to first reproduction 8 months (Ref 3) Parameterization age 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 age class (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 average survival (Pi) for females 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 Proportion of females to total adults (a)

• 1

1 1 hatch success (b)

• 0.71

0.71 0.71 proportion reproducing (mating and fertilization c)

• 1

1 1 eggs/mature female (Ei)

• 3

5.8 5.8 per capita fertility (Fi) 3 6 6 Lumbricus terrestris age-based matrix model

time unit: 2 months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1

3 6 6

2

0.79

3

0.79

4

0.98

5

0.98

6

0.94

7

0.94

8

0.94

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

References ref1 Butt, 1993 ref2 Butt et al., 1994 ref3 Svendsen et al., 2005

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.79 0.94 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 1 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2

Task 2: Set of population model parameters and databases

(3/3)

Subtasks: 2.3 - Collection of life history, ecology parameters and radiation effects datasets for plant species → S. Norden presented a study on chronic radiation effects in macroalgae by the UK Environmental Agency, with significant effects on reproduction and growth. → Identification of a irradiation dataset for parameterization of a grassland population model 2.4 – Selection of existing plant models → Presentation by J. Vives i Batlle of population modelling progress in the duckweed Lemna minor in June 2014 → Search for existing macroalgae and grass models

Task 3: Deliverables

Subtasks: 3.1 – Final report → Agreement on table of content and distribution of work among participants, with first draft version expected during mid-term meeting 3.2 – Access database → Parameters for population modelling to be incorporated into an Access database and published if possible as a data article after the end of MODARIA

Outline of Working Group 9 Report

Title: Modelling radiation effects on wildlife – from organisms to populations Introduction Population modelling methodologies Models for animals and plants Application of radiation effects considerations within population modelling Applicability of population modelling in a radiation protection regulatory context Discussion/Conclusions/future directions References

Next meeting

Vienna IAEA headquarters second half of June 2015

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the IAEA for supporting the activities of the working group 9 under the MODARIA programme