MODARIA Working Group 9 Population Modelling - Status and meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MODARIA Working Group 9 Population Modelling

• Status and meeting outcomes -

Jordi Vives i Batlle (SCK-CEN), Frédéric Alonzo (IRSN)

13 November 2015 Final Technical Meeting of the IAEA Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments program - MODARIA IAEA, Vienna

Key achievements (I)

MODARIA WG9 capitalised

• n new knowledge and

developments from population modelling following the EMRAS II and EC-STAR projects Key achievements: Definition of population for the purposes of modelling Database of population modelling parameters

Lumbricus terrestris average life span 32 months weeks (Ref 2) average time to hatching 4 months (Ref 3) average time to first reproduction 8 months (Ref 3) Parameterization age 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 age class (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 average survival (Pi) for females 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 Proportion of females to total adults (a)

• 1

1 1 hatch success (b)

• 0.71

0.71 0.71 proportion reproducing (mating and fertilization c)

• 1

1 1 eggs/mature female (Ei)

• 3

5.8 5.8 per capita fertility (Fi) 3 6 6 Lumbricus terrestris age-based matrix model

time unit: 2 months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1

3 6 6

2

0.79

3

0.79

4

0.98

5

0.98

6

0.94

7

0.94

8

0.94

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

References ref1 Butt, 1993 ref2 Butt et al., 1994 ref3 Svendsen et al., 2005

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.79 0.94 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 1 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2

Key achievements (II)

Mathematical methodology development

ODEs vs. Lerslie matrices, acute vs chronic situations Limiting resource model analytical solutions

Modelling data and model for bees and grasses, lobsters, etc.

Key achievements (III)

Population models for plants Population & DEBTOX modelling Radiation effects in multispecies context: models for microbial and marine plankton systems Compare chronic radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxa Look at irradiation grass data Evaluate adaptive response studies

Main deliverables

Final report → Most chapters in advanced stage; combining and editing for shortly after the meeting. Access database → Parameters for population modelling mostly delivered, some work left to incorporate into Access and publish. Proposal for MODARIA II → Written document for IAEA and plenary presentation. Publications → Radiation in a limiting resource model - analytical solutions (Sazykina, Kryshev); Radiotoxicity between individual & population endpoints in 4 taxa (Alonzo et al.)

Summary of the working week

Monday 9 November

Discussion of parameter database, last steps to finalise the work, QA, making the database available online and publish paper. Discussion of state of play and work to do on the different report sections;

• rganization of task groups for the week.

Tuesday 10 November

Scientific presentation and discussion on hormesis and adaptive responses. Discussion and finalization of presentation on proposals for MODARIA II

Wednesday 11 November

Working team sessions on report sections 1, 2+3 and 4

Summary of the working week

Thursday 12 November

Continue working team sessions on report sections 1, 2+3 and 4 Discussion on discussion and conclusions chapter Preparation of minutes and final plenary presentation

The final report

Title: Modelling radiation effects on wildlife – from organisms to populations Introduction to radiological protection of the environment and why we are interested in populations Biological description of species which may be modelled Review of existing population models focussing on how can they be used Population modelling methodologies - conceptual and mathematical description Applicability of population modelling in a radiation protection regulatory context Discussion/Conclusions/future directions

We thank all MODARIA WG9 members who made this project enjoyable and successful. We also acknowledge the IAEA for supporting the activities of the working group 9 under the MODARIA Programme and, in particular, our Scientific Secretary Mr. Diego Telleria for ongoing support and inspiration.

Acknowledgements