MODARIA Working Group 9 Population Modelling - Status and meeting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MODARIA Working Group 9 Population Modelling - Status and meeting outcomes - Jordi Vives i Batlle (SCK-CEN), Frédéric Alonzo (IRSN) Final Technical Meeting of the IAEA Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments program - MODARIA IAEA, Vienna 13 November 2015

Key achievements (I) MODARIA WG9 capitalised Lumbricus terrestris average life span 32 months weeks (Ref 2) average time to hatching 4 months (Ref 3) on new knowledge and average time to first reproduction 8 months (Ref 3) Parameterization developments from age 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 age class (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 average survival (P i ) for females 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 population modelling Proportion of females to total adults (a) - - - - 1 1 1 hatch success (b) - - - - 0.71 0.71 0.71 proportion reproducing (mating and fertilization c) - - - - 1 1 1 following the EMRAS II and eggs/mature female (E i ) - - - - 3 5.8 5.8 per capita fertility (F i ) 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 EC-STAR projects Lumbricus terrestris age-based matrix model time unit: 2 months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key achievements: 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 2 0.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0.79 0 0 0 0 0 4 � Definition of population 0 0 0.98 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0.98 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.94 0 0 for the purposes of 7 0 0 0 0 0 0.94 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.94 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 modelling 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 � Database of population 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 modelling parameters 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 References ref1 Butt, 1993 ref2 Butt et al., 1994 ref3 Svendsen et al., 2005

Key achievements (II) � Mathematical methodology development � ODEs vs. Lerslie matrices, acute vs chronic situations � Limiting resource model analytical solutions � Modelling data and model for bees and grasses, lobsters, etc.

Key achievements (III) � Population models for plants � Population & DEBTOX modelling � Radiation effects in multispecies context: models for microbial and marine plankton systems � Compare chronic radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxa � Look at irradiation grass data � Evaluate adaptive response studies

Main deliverables � Final report → Most chapters in advanced stage; combining and editing for shortly after the meeting. � Access database → Parameters for population modelling mostly delivered, some work left to incorporate into Access and publish. � Proposal for MODARIA II � → Written document for IAEA and plenary presentation. � Publications → Radiation in a limiting resource model - analytical solutions (Sazykina, Kryshev); Radiotoxicity between individual & population endpoints in 4 taxa (Alonzo et al.)

Summary of the working week � Monday 9 November � Discussion of parameter database, last steps to finalise the work, QA, making the database available online and publish paper. � Discussion of state of play and work to do on the different report sections; organization of task groups for the week. � Tuesday 10 November � Scientific presentation and discussion on hormesis and adaptive responses. � Discussion and finalization of presentation on proposals for MODARIA II � Wednesday 11 November � Working team sessions on report sections 1, 2+3 and 4

Summary of the working week � Thursday 12 November � Continue working team sessions on report sections 1, 2+3 and 4 � Discussion on discussion and conclusions chapter � Preparation of minutes and final plenary presentation

The final report � Title: Modelling radiation effects on wildlife – from organisms to populations � Introduction to radiological protection of the environment and why we are interested in populations � Biological description of species which may be modelled � Review of existing population models focussing on how can they be used � Population modelling methodologies - conceptual and mathematical description � Applicability of population modelling in a radiation protection regulatory context � Discussion/Conclusions/future directions

Acknowledgements We thank all MODARIA WG9 members who made this project enjoyable and successful. We also acknowledge the IAEA for supporting the activities of the working group 9 under the MODARIA Programme and, in particular, our Scientific Secretary Mr. Diego Telleria for ongoing support and inspiration.