Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments MODARIA WG 5 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments “MODARIA” WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides.

• Vienna. Nov, 10th, 2014

WG Leader: Juan Carlos Mora IAEA Scientific Secretary: Diego Telleria

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

19th-22nd of May, 2014 INTERIM MEETING IN BRATISLAVA

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

The context

“As the effective dose cannot be measured directly, values of this quantity must

be inferred with the aid of models, usually involving environmental, metabolic, and dosimetric components.

Ideally, these models and the values chosen for their parameters should be realistic, so that the results they give can be described as ‘best estimates’. Where practicable, estimates and discussion should be made of the uncertainties inherent in these results”

ICRP 103 (par. 320)

International Commission on Radiological Protection. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. 2007.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

The context

• Pawel Krajewski
• “Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis: A review”

Under development

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identified tasks

Identify possible tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments methods and codes for routine radioactive discharges. Identify cases and scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available for the testing of methodologies. Discuss the distributions of parameters and data. Carry out exercises where sensitive parameters could be identified and analysed, and perform an intercomparison of different methods for uncertainty and variability calculations. Discuss how the results of calculations of this kind could be presented and finally interpreted by decision makers.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identified tasks

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) Identify possible tools (All) Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon) Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and J. Shen) Sources of uncertainties (C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel) Sensitivity analysis (L. Marang T. Tanaka) Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski) Environmental monitoring data (B. Zorko and P. Chyly) Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All) Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Progress

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed hypothetical Parameters: best estimates Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor (best estimate the rest) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from measurements Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed hypothetical Parameters: pdfs Habit data: fixed (not variability) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from measurements Parameters: Preferably pdfs Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Progress

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed hypothetical Parameters: best estimates Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor (best estimate the rest) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from measurements Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed hypothetical Parameters: pdfs Habit data: fixed (not variability) Dose coefficients: fixed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Source term: derived from measurements Parameters: Preferably pdfs Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Progress

Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

• Benjamin Zorko
• “How to use in retrospective assessments values below

decision threshold?”

Under development

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identify possible tools (All)

• CROM
• IMPACT
• SYMBIOSE
• PREDO – ECOLEGO
• ESTE – IA
• CRYSTAL BALL

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon)

• Joint meeting with WG4: Identified the need to have a

pdf for certain parameters (N>20 GM and GSD)

Derivation of pdfs from TRS472 (Evaluating variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE. M. Simon-Cornu et al. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity. Volume 139, January 2015, Pages 91–102)

• Dan Galeriu and Anca Melintescu (H3 and C14)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon)

• Chinon NPP (France)

Progress

• Hypothetical scenario (EMRAS II + INPRO)

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon)

• Presentation of results

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All)

Progress

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and J. Shen)

Progress

• Iurii Bonchuk
• “How conservative are conservative assessments?”

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Sensitivity analysis (L. Marang T. Tanaka)

Progress

• V. Nicoulaud (IRSN)
• Sensitivity analysis of an environmental impact assessment, using Morris indices

and Spearman coefficients. Example on a liquid release scenario for Chinon NPP

• Sensitivity analysis of a radionuclide transfer model describing contaminated

vegetation in Fukushima prefecture, using Morris and Sobol' indices

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

Progress

• Previous generic work identified
• Task

will be focused in communication

• f

results including uncertainties for routine releases.

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

First meeting 13 Presentations of general considerations on uncertainty calculations and of every code were carried out within the group:

• R. Heling – Communication of results which include uncertainties
• C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – General considerations on uncertainties
• I. Bonchuk – Considerations on pdfs in TRS472 and other docs
• G. Shen – Sensitivity considerations in Impact
• S. Chouhan – Features of CSA-DRL Code
• C. Yu – RESRAD Probabilistic Analysis Methodology
• M. Iosjpe – Sensitivity analysis in marine modeling
• B. Zorko – Uncertainties in environmental monitoring data
• V. Avramov – Environmental data from Bulgarian NPP
• F. Fiengo – Uncertainties analysis by using MCMC
• P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball
• C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – Symbiose

Juan C. Mora – CROM 7

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Second meeting 3 courses: Juraj Duran - SU_MMC

• P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball

Gene Shen – Impact Juan C. Mora – CROM 7 Discussion on the tasks: Correlations – S.L. Chouhan A priori sensitivity analysis – L. Marang Pdfs for Symbiose – C. Mourlon Methodology – A. Curti

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

14 Presentations + 2 joint meetings (WG2 and WG4):

• I. Bonchuk “Atmospheric release”
• P. Carny, D. Suchon “ESTE code”
• D. da Costa “Genii”
• S. Chouhan “Correlation factors and SA”
• A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt “Communication in routine releases”
• D. Galeriu “Romanian experience with CANDU”

J.C. Mora “Chinon – CROM7”

• C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel “Chinon – Symbiose”
• C. Mourlon “The Forge”
• G. Proehl “Revision of SRS 19”
• J. Simmonds “Realistic retrospective dose assessment”
• K. Thiesen “Data Sets for Uncertainty Analysis”
• J. Tomas “Comparison of models and data including uncertainties”
• C. Yu “Conservatism of the assessments”

Third meeting

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

12 Presentations:

• P. Krajewski “Scenario from a French NPP (liquid release) – Chinon B site”
• P. Carny “The realistic scenario from a French NPP (Chinon, liquid release) -

preliminary result using ESTE AI”

• P. Carny “Implementation of variable analysis and probabilistic approach to

calculation of radiological impacts in case of normal operational effluents” A.M. Blixt-Buhr “PREDO – PREdiction of DOses from normal releases of radionuclides to the environment”

• R. Avila “Preliminary Results Using Ecolego”

E.Smejkalová “Case study application

• f

remote sensing: from satellite data to classified areas with agricultural crops up to final use in ESTE Annual Impacts”

• A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt “Communication in routine releases”
• B. Zorko “Liquid effluents – model calculations”

D. Da Costa “Dose Assessment. Discharge

• f

liquid effluents from Chinnon NPP. Generation II-GENII-2.1”

• C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel “The INPRO atmospheric scenario - Preliminary

results” – “The CHINON NPP realistic scenario - consideration of the atmospheric releases”

Fourth meeting

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges

Continue advance of each task Peer review of the report Presentations and Articles (ICRER, Pawel, Benjamin, Anca, Adriana, Iurii) Refinement of calculations with different tools and new data Comparison deterministic/probabilistic

This week

Thank you!

• MODARIA. WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological

impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides