Modal Shift for an Environmental Lift A taxonomy of modal shift - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Foto Denys Bilytskyi, Mostphotos Modal Shift for an Environmental Lift A taxonomy of modal shift policy in Europe Johanna Takman 1 , Cecilia Gustafsson 1 , Inge Vierth 1 , Noor Sedehi Zadeh 1 , Anastasia Christodoulou 2 , Marta Gonzalez-Aregall 2
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A taxonomy of modal shift policy in Europe
Johanna Takman1, Cecilia Gustafsson1, Inge Vierth1, Noor Sedehi Zadeh1, Anastasia Christodoulou2, Marta Gonzalez-Aregall2, Kevin Cullinane2
1Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute. Stockholm 2School of Business, Economics, and Law. University of Gothenburg
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What potential does modal shift have to contribute to the fulfilment of the Swedish climate and environmental objectives? Including the desired reduction of CO2, NOx, SOx, PM2.5 and noise. Which are the most effective policies to achieve a modal shift?
from road to less environmentally damaging modes?
context?
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GHG GHG-emiss emissions ions fr from domest
ic Swedish goods edish goods tr transpor ansport
30000 60000 90000 120000 2000 4000 6000 8000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Heavy trucks, CO2 Light trucks, CO2 Waterborne transport, CO2 (domestic) Rail, CO2 Freight transport segments, CO2 target Freight transport segments, tkm Freight transport segments, prognosis tkm
Kt CO2 ekv.
Millions of tonne kilometres (tkm)
Ton
ne kilometr kilometres es an and d GH GHG-emiss emissions ions by by mod mode, e, 20 2017 17
64,72% 26,59% 8,69% 95,01% 1,19% 3,80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Heavy trucks Rail Waterborne transport (domestic) Tonne kilometres CO2 ~ 41% of domestic tonne kilometres with Swedish heavy drucks are > 300km
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(SHARE OF TONNE KILOMETRES)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Heavy trucks Rail Waterborne transport
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Reliability Poorly maintained infrastructure Capacity limits Prices / Costs in ports Ineffectiveness in ports Flexibility Coordination Low demand-side interest Ineffective regulation Tax and fee disincentives Lead times
On time!
STOP
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Most important factors when choosing mode: Costs / prices Reliability / Precision Flexibility Lead time Other important factors: Simplicity Habits Environment
Other comments:
Generally freight forwarders
transport services. You do not “choose” transport mode but rather request a transport service. Firms do not reconsider their choices very often.
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Past, present and planned policies in Europe Several categories including:
Administrative Informative Economic Infrastructure Research Legislations Environmental classifications Technical requirements Taxes Subsidies Maintenance Infrastructure investments Technique testing Development
Information campaigns Eco-labelling
Majority EU-grants and local port infrastructure measures Economic policy mostly grants Many local port initiatives Other policies usually national or regional (EU)
N = 178
The majority of policies only target one mode
N = 178
Most policies target a shift to rail.
Lack of quantified targets Lack of evaluations Available evaluations mainly concern economic policies at national or EU level →Key data unavailable
6 5 13 154 40 80 120 160 200
Qualitative Quantitative Qualitative and Quantitative Not available
N = 178
Most evaluation reports do not classify the evaluated policy as succesful/efficient Among succesful policies are different types of eco bonus systems and grants Lack of applications common factor for failure
12 6 6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
No Yes Yes and no
Is the policy described as succesful/efficient?
1 6 1 16 4 8 12 16 20
High Low Low/medium No target
Succesrate of policy
N = 24
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Most policy instruments are economic, but all decision factors matter → Need for policy mix Reliability, badly maintained infrastructure and capacity limits are main barriers for a modal shift to rail → Support to infrastructure investments. High costs and ineffectiveness in ports are main barriers for a modal shift to waterborne transports. → Target the costs in ports. Few ex post-analysis of policies and a lack of quantified targets. Lack of interest is an important explanatory variable for failure.
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Continue analysis of effective policies Environmental effects from policy scenarios Recommendation for most effective policy mix
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