Mitigation Working Group Webinar GHG Inventory and Modeling for GGRA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mitigation Working Group Webinar GHG Inventory and Modeling for GGRA

MWG Meeting April 2, 2020

Agenda Today

• 1. Updating GHG Inventory Methodology
• 2. Updating GGRA Modeling: New Reference Case

Results

• 3. Updating GGRA Modeling: Policy Scenario

Discussion

Reminder: Inventory and Modeling

MDE’s Inventory estimates emissions that have occurred.

2006 Baseline 2011 Final 2017 Emissions 2014 25 by 20 40 by 30 20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MD GHG Emissions Accounting for Sequestration (MMTCO2e)

Historic Goals

Maryland greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for sequestration. Note favorable weather drove additional reductions in 2017.

Reminder: Inventory and Modeling

Maryland greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for sequestration. The Reference Case estimates emissions under no new programs (not the plan).

MDE’s Inventory estimates emissions that have occurred. E3’s PATHWAYS Model estimates emissions that will occur in the future.

Updating GHG Inventory Methods

• MDE has been performing GHG inventories for a long

time, so some parts of our methodology are old.

• Updating methodology requires revising all prior

inventories, including 2006.

– Changing the 2006 baseline changes the required emission reductions under the GGRA (our goals!) – MDE has avoided changing the methodology for this reason.

• 2020 is a goal year, so now is the time to update.
• These changes must be transparent; MWG

participation is essential.

Proposed Inventory Changes

• 1. Easy: newer global warming potentials (GWPs)

– Latest are from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

• 2. Difficult: Better forest data (LIDAR, satellites, etc)

– Current inventory relies on EPA tool and suspended data. – DNR (Elliott Campbell) to coordinate w/ state agencies, UMD, NASA.

• 3. Very Difficult: Fugitive methane emissions

– Current inventory relies on landfill models and downscaled national averages from EPA tools. – MDE to coordinate w/ UMD (Dickerson et al) on other measurements.

Updated Global Warming Potentials

GWPs convert all GHGs to CO2-equivalent (e.g. “Methane is 28 times more potent than CO2”) MDE uses GWPs from IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) Latest are IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Updated values marginally increase MD GHGs.

67.4 52.5 68.4 53.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MD GHG Emissions Accounting for Sequestration (MMT CO2e)

MDE Inventories: SAR vs AR5

Old (SAR) New (AR5)

Call for Participation

• MDE, DNR, etc will update MWG as inventory work

continues this year.

• MWG members are welcome to volunteer to join

more detailed conversations on forests and methane.

– Email Chris Hoagland: chris.hoagland@maryland.gov

• Updated methodology will be applied when we

perform 2020 inventory next year.

Updating GGRA Modeling: Ref Case

• Reminder: we start policy impact analysis with a

“Reference Case”

– What happens under no new effort?

• Impact estimates from new programs come from

comparisons to the Reference Case

• Updates discussed at February MWG meeting
• E3 presenting updated results today.

Turn to E3 Presentation

Updating GGRA Modeling: Policy Scenarios

• For the Draft Plan, we analyzed 4 policy scenarios:

20 40 60 80 100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMT CO2e)

80% below 2006 Emissions 40% below 2006 Emissions MD Historical Inventory 25% below 2006 Emissions Reference (no new effort) Policy Scenario 1 (continue current effort) Policy Scenario 3 (MCCC/Carbon Fee) Policy Scenario 2 (80% by 2050)

Policy Scenario 4 (GGRA Draft Plan)

Updating GGRA Policy Scenarios

• What is best use of MDE resources to incorporate

MWG & MCCC input?

– MDE can do another “MWG Run” like last time, but it can’t be as complex as carbon fee.

• What are most important assumptions to evaluate in

sensitivity analysis?

– Last time: CAFE rollback, Calvert Cliffs retirement, and consumer adoption of EVs and efficient appliances.

Additional Slides

100-year vs 20-year GWPs

• GWPs evaluate impact relative to CO2 over both 20

years and 100 years.

• MDE uses 100-year value in inventory and GGRA

Plan, consistent with national and international standards

– ie the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and UNFCCC rules for implementing the Paris Agreement

• Good reason to use the 20-year value in other areas

– eg MDE’s estimates in natural gas system rulemaking and fracking analysis

Addressing Uncertainty

• What if:

– The Federal government rolls back vehicle standards? – Consumer adoption of EVs is half of what we modeled? – Consumer adoption of efficient appliances is half of what we modeled? – All of those things happen at once?

We still meet the 2030 goal, but without as much extra reduction.