MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource Assessment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource Assessment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource Assessment Project Preliminary Analysis Report Presented by: Alex Kalmikov Wind Energy Projects in Action (WEPA) Massachusetts Institute of Technology December 8 2011 Bates Google

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SLIDE 1

MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource Assessment Project

Preliminary Analysis Report

Presented by: Alex Kalmikov Wind Energy Projects in Action (WEPA) Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Bates Google Earth visualization

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnqsUIGZgHc

December 8 2011

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SLIDE 2

Bates Water Tower Site

  • Elevation: 64±1m above mean sea level
  • Coordinates +42° 35' 47.90", -70° 58' 42.66"

(Latitude 42.596638, Longitude -70.978518)

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SLIDE 3

Bates Water Tower Site

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SLIDE 4
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SLIDE 5

Wind Power Density

3

1 2 P WPD U A   

NREL table: http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/tables/1-1T.html

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SLIDE 6

Fundamental Equation of Wind Power

– Wind Power depends on:

  • amount of air (volume)
  • speed of air (velocity)
  • mass of air (density)

flowing through the area of interest (flux) – Kinetic Energy (mass, velocity):

  • K

– Power is KE per unit time:

  • .

– Thus:

  • P

A U

dm A U dt    

mass flow rate = density·Area·flux

2 1 2

KE m U   

1 2

P

2

dm U dt   

  • Power ~ cube of velocity
  • Power ~ air density
  • Power ~ rotor area ~ square of radius

3 1 2

P A U     

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SLIDE 7

Meteorological Tower

  • NRG Systems 34m tower

Sensor 1 Sensor 2 Sensor 3 Sensor 4

 Serial Number

1021 1022 1016 1023

 Monitoring Height

34m 34.2m 20m 20.2m

 Primary / Redundant

20cm 20cm 20cm 20cm

 Mounting Orientation

Degrees - Magnetic 268 124 268 124

 Boom Length

1.5m 1.5m 1.5m 1.5m

 Mount Above Boom  Calibrated by:

Otech Otech Otech Otech

Calibration Date 10/16/09 10/16/09 10/16/09 10/16/09

Slope (mph/Hz) 0.759 0.758 0.757 0.759

Offset (mph) 0.34 0.38 0.38 0.38

 Logger Terminal #

Ch 1 Ch 2 Ch 3 Ch 13 Comments: Sensor 1 Sensor 2

 Monitoring Height

33m 19m

 Mounting Orientation

Degrees - Magnetic 178 178

 Boom Length

1.5m 1.5m

 Mount Above Boom

20cm 20cm

 Deadband Orientation (º)

  • 2
  • 2

 Logger Terminal #

Ch 7 Ch 8 Comments:

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SLIDE 8

Wind Resource Assessment

Data collection

  • 1 year: November 3 2010 - November 7 2011
  • Two heights: 20 and 34 meters above the ground
  • Data filtering: icing and tower shadow
  • Data recovery rate 98.9%.

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0.05 0.1 Height 34m WeibullScale=5 WeibullShape=2.32 5 10 15 0.05 0.1 Height 20m WeibullScale=3.98 WeibullShape=2.08 Wind Speed [m/s]

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SLIDE 9

Tower Shadow and Data Filtering

  • Difference between two anemometers mounted at different angles

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 Wind direction [Degrees] Wind speed difference [m/s] Raw data Ice freeze filtered Expected tower shadow

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SLIDE 10

Wind Resource Analysis

Nov.18,2010 Dec.19,2010 Jan.19,2011 Feb.18,2011 Mar.21,2011 Apr.21,2011 May.22,2011 Jun.22,2011 Jul.22,2011 Aug.22,2011 Sep.22,2011 Oct.23,2011 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Wind Speed [m/s] 10 minute average 34m Monthly average 34m Monthly average 20m

Measured Wind Speed

52 2.08 3.98 3.52 92 2.32 5.00 4.43

1 year Mean WPD 20m Weibull Shape 20m Weibull Scale 20m Mean Wind 20m Mean WPD 34m Weibull Shape 34m Weibull Scale 34m Mean Wind 34m

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SLIDE 11

Wind Resource Analysis

Measured Wind Speed

52 2.08 3.98 3.52 92 2.32 5.00 4.43

1 year

48 2.04 3.89 3.44 90 2.37 5.04 4.46

Oct 2011

24 2.45 3.29 2.92 42 2.76 4.09 3.64

Sep 2011

44 1.80 3.50 3.10 75 2.02 4.43 3.92

Aug 2011

26 2.27 3.32 2.93 47 2.76 4.26 3.80

Jul 2011

31 2.25 3.50 3.10 56 2.57 4.42 3.93

Jun 2011

55 2.46 4.32 3.83 88 2.62 5.12 4.55

May 2011

70 2.02 4.41 3.90 116 2.16 5.34 4.74

Apr 2011

69 2.35 4.53 4.01 119 2.65 5.59 4.96

Mar 2011

62 2.49 4.42 3.92 120 2.58 5.56 4.94

Feb 2011

41 2.11 3.65 3.23 85 2.37 4.84 4.29

Jan 2011

96 1.93 4.68 4.13 167 2.26 5.97 5.28

Dec 2010

59 2.20 4.24 3.75 107 2.40 5.32 4.72

Nov 2010 Mean WPD 20m Weibull Shape 20m Weibull Scale 20m Mean Wind 20m Mean WPD 34m Weibull Shape 34m Weibull Scale 34m Mean Wind 34m

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SLIDE 12

Wind Shear Estimation

  • Shear: increase of horizontal velocity with height
  • Power law fit to vertical wind profile
  • Wind Shear Exponent
  • Matching WPD at 2 measurement heights
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 Shear Exponent 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 Shear Exponent Distribution Mode Mean Median

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 Shear Exponent 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 Shear Exponent Distribution Mode Mean Median

( ) h U h U h

      

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SLIDE 13

Extrapolated Wind Power Density

  • Sensitivity to wind shear
  • Uncertainty due to vertical extrapolation

91.26 91.48 91.81 91.99 92.15 Lower bound 3647 489 152 92.0 51.7 Upper bound 145 132 108 92.0 73.4 Shear=1/7 274 219 136 92.0 53.6 Shear=0.34 293 230 139 92.0 52.0 Shear=0.36 100m 80m 50m 34m 20m Elevation

3 1 2

WPD U  

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SLIDE 14

Directional Wind Distribution

  • Wind rose

34 m

2% 4% 6% WEST EAST SOUTH NORTH 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 8 - 10 10 - 12 12 - 14 14 - 16 16 - 18 2% 4% 6% WEST EAST SOUTH NORTH 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 8 - 10 10 - 12 12 - 14 14 - 16 16 - 18 2% 4% 6% WEST EAST SOUTH NORTH 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 8 - 10 10 - 12 12 - 14 14 - 16 16 - 18

20 m

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SLIDE 15

Directional WPD Distribution

  • Energy rose

34 m 20 m

2% 4% 6% WEST EAST SOUTH NORTH 0 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 500 >=500 2% 4% 6% WEST EAST SOUTH NORTH 0 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 500 >=500

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SLIDE 16

Turbine Power Estimates

1,800,000 1,300,000 450,000 140,000 20,000 Approximate Cost [$] 12 15 14.5 10 13 Rated Wind Speed [m/s] 2.5 / 25 4 / 25 3.5 / 25 2.5 / 25 3.5 / 25 Cutin / Cutout Speeds [m/s] 50 29 21 10 3.7 Rotor Diameter [m] 50 50 37 36.6 20 Hub Height [m] 500 225 100 20 2.4 Rated Power [kW] Polaris America Aeronautica Windpower Northern Power Systems Polaris America Southwest Windpower Manufacturer Polaris 500 Aeronautica 29-225 Northern Power 100 Polaris 20 Skystream 3.7 14.46 9.36 11.10 9.67 5.24 Annual Capacity Factor [%] 634,000 184,500 97,320 16,960 1,103 Annual Energy Production [kWh] Shear=1/7 17.95 12.33 11.71 10.26 5.24 Annual Capacity Factor [%] 786,750 243,200 102,700 17,980 1,103 Annual Energy Production [kWh] Shear=0.36 Polaris 500 Aeronautica 29-225 Northern Power 100 Polaris 20 Skystream 3.7 Shear Estimate

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SLIDE 17

Summary

  • MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource

Assessment Project

  • NRG 34m meteorological tower at Bates Water Tower Site
  • 1 year of data: November 3 2010 - November 7 2011
  • Wind power class 1 - “Poor” resource potential
  • Uncertainty in vertical extrapolation
  • Preliminary understanding of prevailing winds
  • Selected turbines power estimates

Low wind site may benefit from the newer low wind turbine technology.

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SLIDE 18

Questions