BC HYDRO WIND RESOURCE OPTION ENGAGEMENT JUNE 3, 2015 WIND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

JUNE 3, 2015

BC HYDRO WIND RESOURCE OPTION ENGAGEMENT

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PURPOSE

• Report on BC-wide cost curve assumption
• Present preliminary results on wind UECs
• Seek input from stakeholders on cost assumptions and representation
• f wind potential in BC

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SUMMARY OF CHANGES BASED ON STAKEHOLDER INPUT

• 100 m hub height
• 3 MW turbine nameplate capacity
• 12.75% loss factor
• Updated power curves based on current/forward looking turbine

technology

• 25 year project life

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COST ASSUMPTIONS

• Based on line item analysis conducted by Hatch
• Considers impact of project size on capital costs
• Based on stakeholder input, use BC-wide costs instead of region

specific costs (differences in site characteristics outweigh regional differences)

• Costs based on generic ‘best case scenario’ site conditions

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BC-WIDE COST CURVE BASED ON GENERIC ‘BEST CASE SCENARIO’ SITE CONDITIONS

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Capital Cost ($/kW) Project Size (MW)

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CONCERN VOICED IN PREVIOUS SESSION

• Hatch cost estimates are representative of ‘best case scenario’

sites, but not reflective of sites with challenging topography and high relief approaches

• Many of the high wind speed sites in BC are associated with

challenging topography/high relief approaches

• Cost estimates likely underestimate UECs for those sites

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ESTIMATING IMPACT OF CHALLENGING TOPOGRAPHY ON CAPITAL COSTS

• Informal survey of IPPs (conducted by GE)
• Capital costs range from $2,590/kW (plateau site) to

$2,940/kW (complex site)

• Compare this to $2,350/kW based on the BC-wide cost curve

(all estimates for a ~100 MW project) IPP estimate for complex site is roughly 25% more than Capex estimate based on BC-wide cost curve Proposal:

• Apply a percent increase in Capex to sites with challenging

topography (identified using Google Earth) to better reflect higher costs associated with building in difficult terrain.

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UEC AT POINT OF INTERCONNECTION

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• Preliminary - based on estimated CFs and 2013 R1/T1 values)
• Does not include cost adders (capacity, wind integration, etc)

50.00 70.00 90.00 110.00 130.00 150.00 170.00 190.00 210.00 230.00 250.00 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

UEC at POI ($/MWh) GWh

Capex based on Best Case Scenario Site Conditions Capex based on Best Case Scenario Site Conditions plus 25% 15% Increase Applied to Challenging Sites 20% Increase Applied to Challenging Sites 25% Increase Applied to Challenging Sites

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OTHER CONCERNS

• Is it reasonable to assume 100 m hub heights for Class I sites?
• Database contains 17 projects with average wind speeds > 9 m/s

and 8 projects with wind speeds > 9.5 m/s (at 100 m) Are these wind speeds overly optimistic?

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NEXT STEPS

• Complete UECs based on today’s input
• Send out results to stakeholder group
• Post results on BC Hydro website (expected summer, 2015)

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