Minta szveg minta COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARKETS Minta Gyrgy Istvnffy, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Minta szöveg minta

Minta

COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARKETS

György Istvánffy, 25th Athens Forum, 16 June 2020

LONG TERM EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT RECOVERING YET

20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 55,00 60,00 65,00 70,00 75,00

EUR

HUN Baseload Monthly Futures

BL Nov-19 BL Dec-19 BL Jan-20 BL Feb-20 BL Mar-20 BL Apr-20 BL May-20 BL Jun-20 BL Jul-20 BL Aug-20

• 03. 11.

SoE in Hungary

• 03. 27.

curfew

• 01. 22.

Lockdown in Wuhan

20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 55,00 60,00 65,00 70,00 75,00

EUR

HUN Baseload Quarterly Futures

BL Q1-20 BL Q2-20 BL Q3-20 BL Q4-20 BL Q1-21 BL Q2-21

• 03. 11.

SoE in Hungary

• 03. 27.

curfew

20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 55,00 60,00 65,00 70,00 75,00

EUR

HUN Baseload Yearly Futures

BL YR-20 BL YR-21 BL YR-22 BL YR-23

• 03. 11.

SoE in Hungary

• 03. 27.

curfew 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

May Jun Jul Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Cal+1 Cal+2

EUR HUN Baseload Futures Contracts (Avg. prices measured in April)

2019 2020

• 01. 22.

Lockdown in Wuhan

• 01. 22.

Lockdown in Wuhan

DECREASING PRICES ON HUPX DAM, BUT VOLUMES…

0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 80,00 0,00 10000,00 20000,00 30000,00 40000,00 50000,00 60000,00 70000,00 80000,00 90000,00

EUR MWh

Daily traded volumes and prices

Decreasing price levels with some correction during last weeks, stagnation in volumes at a high level since beginning of 2020.

• 03. 11.

SoE in Hungary

• 03. 08.

Lockdown in Lombardy (ITA)

• 01. 22.

Lockdown in Wuhan (PRC)

HUPX DAM INDEX YEAR ON YEAR DECREASES, BUT THE VOLUMES…

0,00 10000,00 20000,00 30000,00 40000,00 50000,00 60000,00 70000,00 80000,00 90000,00 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00

MWh EUR

Daily traded volumes and prices

Volume - 20 Volume - 19 Price - 19 Price -20

Volumes are higher, prices are lower than in 2019. Both differences are significant.

SPREADS GETTING NARROWER AMIDST LOWER ATC-S

0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00 1200,00 1400,00 1600,00 1800,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW EUR

Day-Ahead weekly avg. prices with AT/SK - HU ATC

AT-HU ATC SK-HU ATC spread HUPX EPEX DE

Decreasing spread, despite the lower ATC values

• n AT and SK borders, unusual market behaviour,

might be caused by the decrease of consumption and restructuring of generation mix.

Thank you for your attention!