Military Operational Research (14 ISMOR) - - PDF document

The Fourteenth International Symposium On Military Operational Research (14 ISMOR) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

"Application of Parallel Thinking Process to 'Soft' Operational Analysis"

• Mr. Hemant P. Jariwala,

Operational Analysis Department, Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Ltd., Stevenage, Hertfordshire. SGI 2DA. England Tel.: +44 (0) 1438 754204 Fax.: +44 (0) 1438 754296 E-mail: hemant.jariwala@def. bae.co.u k

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Abstract

"Western thinking is failing because it was not designed to deal with change."

• Dr. Edward de Bono,

Parallel Thinking Traditional military Operational Analysis (OA) has been used by Industry, Customer and User, as a process for decision making. Indeed,Jmore

• ften than not, it is used to confirm or support

preconceived ideas through judgement but with very little thought on design of new ideas or exploring possibilities. If 'Soft' OA is to survive, it must progress to cope with the demands of the increasing complexity zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• f

a rapidly changing world. Traditional analytical techniques must evolve or be modified, and different ways

• f solving problems embraced. Otherwise, OKs value to Industry and

Customer alike will be eroded. The objective of this paper is to raise awareness and propose the use

• f Dr. de Bono's 'Parallel Thinking' ideas in

the field of 'Soft' OA. An example is presented, where this methodology would be beneficial, e.g. low intensity conflict analysis (Operations Other Than War). zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not, necessarily, reflect the views of Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Limited.

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What is 'Traditional Thinking'?

Traditional Thinking zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

i s Concerned with Search and

Discovery

• Westem thinking system fashioned by the Ancient Greek
• Judgmental: yedno, righffwrong, truelfalse, etc.
• 'Static' logic and absolute

fact.

• Uses hard-edged

judgement boxes, definitions and categories.

• Sets up dichotomies

and contradictions to force choice.

• Information and judgement are enough.
• Criticism: remove 'bad things' only 'good things' are zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

left.

• Adversarial argument.

Philosophers: Socrates, Plato and Aristotle.

Basic concept o

f

judgement has totally dominated Western thinking, during the past two thousand five hundred years.

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Traditional Thinking Process

( Perception )

ACTION

In traditional thinking there is perception followed by a judgement which

puts matter into a box. Action is then determined by the box. Judgement zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• r analysis i

s the key thinking step

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What is zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

'Parallel Thinking'?

Parallel Thinking is Concerned with Design and Creation

• Accepts 'possibilities'.
• 'Dynamic Logic' and 'Fluid Thinking'.
• Uses 'fuzzy edges', overlaps, markers and spectra: 'usually', 'by
• Embraces contradiction and design a way forward.
• Deliberate generation and construction
• f ideas and concepts.
• Uses co-operative 'parallel' thinking.

and large' and 'sometimes', etc.

Parallel thinking is 'possibilities'

• rientated. We move from possibilities

to the direct design of action. To deal with the future, we have to deal with possibilities. Analysis will only tell us 'What is'. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Matra BAe Dynamics

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Pe rce pt

i

• n
• Flowscape
• \

Parallel Scenarios

• Structured Brainstorming
• Lateral

Thinking

Stru ct u red Judgement Approach ACTION

In parallel thinking a useful outcome is obtained by 'design' rather than by 'judgement'. From the field of parallel 'possibilities' we then proceed to design the most appropriate action, decision or a way forward. Matra BAe Dynamics

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Parallel zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Thinking Method

Growp zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• r

Co-operative Involvement Explore Group Flowscape: 'Inner World' of Perception

• 'Six Hats' or Structured Brainstorming

Method:

• Designated hat focuses the group towards the subject.
• Different opinions considered equally.
• Parallel

direction for examining the subject.

Lateral Thinking

• Generation of new ideas.
• Uses: insight, creativity and humour.
• Deliberate way of restructuring

information.

Parallel thinking means laying down ideas alongside each other. There is no clash, no dispute, no initial true/faIse judgement. There is instead a genuine exploration of the subject.

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Flowscape Methodology (I)

Flowscapes are personal reflection of subject perception

• Logic of perception.
• Picture
• f the Inner-world
• "what might be...", "What does this lead to

...

?I

Flowscape Approach

• Define Scope of the Subject.
• Aspects of the situation - values, concepts and circumstances.
• 'Top of the head' list of factors.
• Link or 'flows' to other item. 'What comes to mind next or leads
• Pictorial representation
• f flowscape.

to?'

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1.

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Flowscape Methodology (2)

Group Flowscape

• Understanding

the 'Logic of Perception' and the process.

• Objective of the exercise.
• Construct 'base list'.
• Flowscape

picture.

• Analysis of tlowscape: Identify

parallel possibilities. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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• Flowscape Methodology (3)

Collector (C)

• Possible action points.

W

Stable Loop (S)

• Stability of perception.
• At least one stable loop

Link (L)

• Point of weakness

Pictorial representation zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• f
• ur perception analysed. Sensitive and

important points are understood and focus zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• ur attention and decide on

course of action.

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Ethnic Conflict Base List

Violence Revenge Die Hard Hardship Pressures Anger Despair Traitor Future Peace Revenge Die Hard Traitor Future Die Hard Revenge Revenge Revenge Die Hard Hardship Die hard zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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• Ethnic Conflict Flowscape

Violence

Traitor

/Pressures Anger + Revenge - Die Hard -Heroes

/ \

Despair zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Loops

Settlement

• Economic hard- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

...d and the future does not feature in reduc..ig the ethnic vic -rice.

• The power of being labelled

as a traitor prevents conciliatory moves.

Collectors

• Avenge past events (impossible

to forget and forgive) -feeds violence, anger and

• Community determination
• never give in. A good breeding ground for local heroes and

despair.

• leaders. Any settlement or peace should not be seen as giving in.

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Outer-world Perception of Conflicts Concluding Remarks

Has 'Soft' OA has become complacent, arrogant and judgmental? Parallel Thinking has many advantages

• ver Traditional

Thin king zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• Accept possibilities.
• Co-operative involvement (Structured Brainstorming).
• Direct creation of new ideas and concepts (Lateral Thinking).
• Attention to perception

(Flowscape).

• Concerned

with design and action.

Need to develop 'novel' methods to deal with new military or non-standard situations zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Back To The Future

• Relationship

between perception and reality.

• Conflict analysis: More than just a 'Game zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
• f War'.
• Impact on UNINATO response to conflicts.
• Impact on weapon system design, procurement and deployment. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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Further Reading Material:

• Dr. Edward de zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Bono zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• Parallel

Thinking (ISBN 0-670-85126-4)

• Six Thinking Hats (ISBN 0-14-013784-X)
• Lateral

Thinking (ISBN 0-14-013779-3)

• Water Logic

(ISBN 0-14-023075-0)

Acknowledgement

The author acknowledges the support and assistance recei! ed from:

• Dr. John R.

Deane and Jenny L. Young of Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Ltd and Peter J. Haysman of Royal Ordnance (Shrivenham).

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Notes: