Middle Class Trajectories: United States, India and Turkey For: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Middle Class Trajectories: United States, India and Turkey

Alison Hayes Ranjit Jose Andrea Peters

For: Alberto Minujin Enrique Delamonica

Why Study the

Middle Class?

• The importance of the middle class in terms of stability

and peace

• The alternative leads to gross inequalities, revolution or
• ppression

Why Study America, India and Turkey?

• Profound changes occurring within the middle classes of India and America,

potentially related to each other

• Turkey, client driven

Initial research project with intention for extended future research and publication

Max Weber

• A large middle is a beneficial, stabilizing influence on

society, because it has neither the possibly explosive revolutionary tendencies of the lower class, nor the absolutist tendencies of the upper class.

• Middle class composed of a quasi-elite (professionals and

managers) largely immune to economic downturns and trends such as outsourcing which affect the statistical middle class.

• The middle class has political prowess and legal democratic

values.

• Acts as a mediating class between the rich and poor.

Aristotle

Methodology

• Thesis
• Researched published sources
• Interviews with:
• Academics
• Experts
• Individuals familiar with current trends
• Grant Writing/Budget Proposal Workshop

Deliverables

• Research Paper
• Identifying basic definitions of the middle class
• Examining the historical framework in the

development of the middle class in three countries

• Economic data
• Grant Proposal

Definitions

Social

• College Education
• Full time, stable employment
• Home ownership
• Automobile ownership
• Knowledge of English

(India/Turkey)

Population 301,139,947 1,129,866,154 71,158,647 % Middle Class 64% 25% 22% Middle Class by Income $25,000 - $100,000 $4380 - $21,890 $300 - $6,000 Human Development Index 8 126 92

• 1950’s
• Policies after Second World War
• Conception of American Dream
• Company Job
• Home
• Car

American Middle Class

• Shape of income distribution is

changing

• Increasingly difficult to afford housing

and

• Necessities (food, clothing,

transportation, healthcare)

Harvard Magazine February 2006

• No margin for error
• No room in budget

to care for sick family members

• The modern

American family is walking a high wire without a net.

Professor Jacob Hacker, Professor, Political Science Yale University

• Serious and unstable
• “The Great Risk Shift”
• Massive transfer of economic risk
• Reshaped Americans’ relationships to

their government, employers and to themselves

• Middle Class did not emerge but was

established by way of the caste system.

• Colonial rule spread English language

among the upper castes.

• Major employer was the civil service.

Indian Middle Class

1990s

• Neo-liberal economic reforms
• Multi-national companies competing

with Indian firms

• Increasing employment opportunities
• Greater ability to save and invest
• Emergence of an “Indian Dream”

Madras High Tech Center

Turkish Middle Class

• Turkish middle class slowly emerged in early 1900’s

as Ottoman empire weakened.

• Modern Turkey formed in 1923, middle class mostly

tied to government (military, bureaucrats)

• Alternating periods of rapid growth and deflation
• Economic reforms such as privatization begin in

1980’s

• Economic crisis of 1990’s, middle class loses

savings, inflation at 125%

Unable to Gain a Foothold

• Military Coups (1960, 1971, 1980) and

1997 military intervention

• Economic Instability and Failed Reforms

(IMF 1980’s)

• Earthquakes (1939, 1944, 1957, 1967,

1999)

Distribution of annual total household income: income shares of quintiles and Gini-Coefficients

Quintiles 1963 1968 1973 1986 1987 1994 2002 2003 Lowest 20% 4.5 3 3.5 3.9 5.24 4.86 5.3 6 Next 20% 8.5 7 8 8.4 9.61 8.63 9.8 10.3 Next 20% 11.5 10 12.5 12.6 14.08 12.91 14 14.5 Next 20% 18.5 20 19.5 19.2 21.15 19.03 20.8 20.9 Highest 20% 57 60 56.5 55.9 49.94 54.88 50.1 48.3 Gini- Coefficient n/a .56 .51 n/a .44 .49 .44 .42

Source: 1963-1987 Kasnakoglu, All others from Turkish State Statistical Institute

Comparative Gini-coefficient data United States, India, Turkey

10 20 30 40 50 60 1965 1975 1985 1995 2000 2005 India Turkey United States

Secularists Take To Turkey's Streets

Monday, Apr. 30, 2007 Time.com QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.

By PELIN TURGUT Turkish secularists protest against the Development Party's (AKP) presidential candidate, Abdullah Gul, during a rally in Istanbul, Turkey April 29, 2007. Parking space, not politics, is what usually gets my thoroughly decent, middle-class Istanbul neighborhood in a twist. But Sunday morning, the Burberry set trendy teenagers in Ray-ban Aviators, pensioners in sun hats, young professionals and entire families turned revolutionary. Waving red and white Turkish flags and chanting "Turkey will not become Iran," they streamed up the road by the hundreds to join the city's biggest secularist rally in recent memory.

Turkey Today

• Unpredictable nature
• f Turkish economy
• Disagreement among

leading economists

• Political Instability
• Continued conflicts

between secularist and Islamic held political positions

• European Union
• Global volatility

The Future of the Middle Class in Turkey?

• Globalization has led to

job volatility

• Increased inequality
• Decreased social mobility
• Diminished American

Dream?

What next, U.S.A.?

• Middle Class projected to reach 583

million by 2025.

• At current growth rate, incomes are set

to triple over next two decades.

• Might become 5th largest consumer

market (surpassing Germany). Expectations for India

Challenges

• Availability of Economic Data (India, Turkey)
• Expert List (India, Turkey)
• Limited Studies on Middle Class (Turkey)
• Research needed narrowing