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Activities on Assessment of Environmental Policies and Dissemination at AIT Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Pathumthani, Thailand 20 February, 2006 Prepared for 11th AIM International Workshop, 19-21 February 2006, NIES,

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Prepared for 11th AIM International Workshop, 19-21 February 2006, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Activities on Assessment of Environmental Policies and Dissemination at AIT

Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Pathumthani, Thailand

20 February, 2006

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Multigas Emission Inventory in Thailand Promotion of Biofuels Program in Thailand: Application

  • f AIM/Enduse

Assessment of Energy, Economy and Environment in Thailand: Application of AIM/CGE Dissemination: Workshop on Energy System Development and GHG: Analyses of Selected Options in Thailand

Presentation Outline

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

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AIT Multigas Emission Inventory in Thailand

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Multigas Emission Inventory in Thailand

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

Thailand submitted initial national communication on 13th November 2000 Study conducted according to guidelines based on revised IPCC Guidelines (1996). Planning horizon: 2000-2035 Non-CO2 GHGs considered: CH4, N2O, NOx and CO GHG emissions source and sink categories:

  • Energy use
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Industrial processes
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
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Global Warming Potential of GHGs

Changes in shares of GHG emissions (between 2000 and 2035):

CO2: 58% to 82% CH4: 36% to 16% N2O: 5% to 2%

CO2 equivalent GHG:

316 million ton (2000) to 1,176 million (2035) ~ 3.7 times increase AAGR 3.8%

Among the Sources of GHG emissions, energy use is estimated to account for 57% of total GHG emissions in 2035 as compared to 54% in 2000.

2000 2015 2025 2035 Pollutant kilo ton % kilo ton % kilo ton % kilo ton % CO2 183,583 58 354,529 68 593,470 76 959,821 82 CH4 5,487 36 7,094 28 7,990 21 9,168 16 N2O 55 5 63 4 69 3 75 2 CO2 equivalent GHG 315,858 523,054 782,613 1,175,656

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CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion and Industrial Processes

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Share (%)

Fuel combustion Industrial Processes

Changes in shares of CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2035:

Fuel combustion: 88% to 66% Industrial processes: 12% to 34%

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Methane Emission during 2000-2035

AAGR during 2000-2035: 1.5% Changes in shares of methane emission by source during 2000 to 2035 (%): Rice cultivation 71 to 65 Energy 8 to 14 Waste 13 to 15 Livestock 7 to 5 Rice cultivation to account for more than two-thirds of methane emissions. Increasing share of energy use and waste in Methane emissions.

2000

Rice cultivation 71% Energy 8% Waste 13% Livestock 7% Others 1%

2035

Rice cultivation 65% Others 1% Livestock 5% Waste 15% Energy 14%

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Nitrous Oxide Emission during 2000-2035

AAGR during 2000-2035: 0.9% Changes in shares of N2O emission by source from 2000 to 2035 (%): Agricultural soil 70 to 55 Fuel combustion 9 to 15 Manure management 19 to 28 Agricultural soil is the largest contributor to N2O emission (55 to 70%). The shares of fuel combustion and manure management are to increase in the future.

2000 Burning of agricultural residues 2% Agricultural soils 70% Fuel combustion 9% Manure management 19% 2035 Manure management 28% Fuel combustion 15% Agricultural soils 55% Burning of agricultural residues 2%

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Promotion of Biofuels Program in Thailand: Application of AIM/Enduse

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

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Promotion of Bio-fuels in Transport sector and Their Impacts on Energy Systems and the Environment

  • Based on AIM/Enduse [Thailand]
  • Time period: 30 years (2000 to 2030)
  • 2 Types of biofuel considered: Gasohol and Biodiesel
  • Biofuels are considered only in transport sector
  • Thai Government’s roadmap of gasohol and biodiesel development and

promotion:

Gasohol roadmap:

  • Phase I: Replacement of MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether) by ethanol from 2006
  • Phase II: 10% gasohol in all types of gasoline by 2007
  • Biodiesel roadmap:
  • Phase I: Introduction of biodiesel in targeted areas during 2006-2010
  • Phase II: Introduction of biodiesel nationwide from 2010

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Scenario 1: (S1) The Base Case –- No biofuels Scenario 2: (S2) Government Plan

  • Based on the government biofuel plan and resources availability
  • Land limit for biodiesel production is 0.8 Million ha (5 Million Rais)

Scenario 3: (S3)High biofuel availability Scenario 5: (S5) Subsidy for gasohol 95

Promotion of Bio-fuels (Scenarios considered)

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

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Promotion of Bio-fuels

CO2 emission reduction under S2 (government policy), during (2010-2030) compared to base case: 2010: 2.4% 2020: 2.9% 2030: 2.6%

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

Diesel 46.6% Electricity 0.3% LPG 11.1% Natural gas 16.0% Gasoline 26.0%

Biodiesel 33.6% Diesel 17.9% Electricity 0.1% LPG 9.0% Natural gas 16.0% Gasoline 21.2% Gasohol95 2.2%

Changes in fuel mix in transport sector

Base case Government policy (S2)

Shares of diesel, gasoline and LPG in total energy use is estimated to decline. Shares of gasohol95 and biodiesel are estimated to reach about 2% and 34 % in 2030.

82 138 232 80 134 226

50 100 150 200 250 2010 2020 2030 CO2 emission (million tons)

Basecase S2 2.4% 2.9% 2.6%

2030 2030

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AIM/CGE Activities

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Based on APEIS training attended by AIT team (Sunil Malla and Aunkung Lim in November 2005 at NIES) 2000 IO table of Thailand with 23 economic sectors Time horizon: 30 years (2000 – 2030) Four scenarios are analyzed:

  • Global market (TA1)
  • Dual track (TA2) : Reference scenario
  • Sufficiency economy (TB1)
  • Local stewardship (TB2)

AIM/CGE Model

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AIM/CGE Model

GDP is expected to increase by more than 5 times (5.2 trillion Baht in 2000 to 26.3 trillion Baht in 2030) CO2 emissions is expected to increase by more than 3 times (155 million tons in 2000 to 467 million tons in 2030)

Simulation results: Reference case (Dual track):

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

Capital Labor income income (2000=1) (million tons) 2000 3.8 1.3 0.2 5.2 6.5 2.0 1.0 155 2010 6.4 2.3 0.2 8.9 13.8 2.2 1.6 214 2015 8.2 3.3 0.1 11.6 19.1 2.3 1.9 251 2020 10.7 4.6

  • 0.1

15.2 27.0 2.4 2.4 305 2025 14.0 6.6

  • 0.7

19.9 38.2 2.5 3.0 375 2030 18.5 9.3

  • 1.6

26.2 54.1 2.6 3.8 467 GDP Wage rate CO2 emission (trillion Baht) Consumption Investment Net export

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In 2000:

Coal: 23%, Natural gas: 23% Oil: 54%

By 2030:

Coal: 10%, Natural gas: 44% Oil: 46%

Reference Scenario

35 25 23 25 28 34 43 35 50 69 96 126 165 206 85 96 109 124 146 173 216

100 200 300 400 500 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions (million tons)

coal gas

  • il

100 200 300 400 500 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203 CO2 emissions by sector (million tons)

Agriculture Industry Commercial Transport Others

Fuel share in CO2 emission:

By 2030, industry and transport sectors combined contribute more than two-thirds of total CO2 emissions. Over time, share of transport increases (from 25% in 2000 to 28% in 2030) and share of industry sector falls (from 58% in 2000 to 45% in 2030).

CO2 emission by sectors:

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CO2 emissions intensity is expected to fall over time in the country.

  • Highest: 0.71 (kg in 2000 US$ MER) under TA2 in 2030;
  • Lowest: 0.86 (kg in 2000 US$ MER) under TB2 in 2030.

AIM/CGE Model

11th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emission per GDP (kg in 2000 US$ MER)

TA1 TA2 TB1 TB2

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Dissemination Activities

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Dissemination/Capacity Building

  • Workshop on Energy System Development and GHG Emissions:

Analyses of Selected Options in Thailand

Held in June 23, 2005 at AIT 29 participants representing universities, government organizations and private institutes

  • Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)
  • Pollution Control Department (PCD)
  • Office of the natural Resources and Environmental Policy (ONEP)
  • Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research (TISTR)
  • Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)
  • Appropriate Technology Association (ATA
  • Universities (SIIT, Chulalongkorn, Kasetsart, AIT)

Objective of the workshop was to make policy makers and researchers in Thailand make aware of activities on environmental policy assessment based on AIM/Enduse & CGE models.

  • Poster exhibition and distribution of dissemination materials

during Royal Thai Government (RTG) Joint Research Program Seminar, August 2005 at AIT

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Implications of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on Thai Economy National level energy and emission scenarios development for Thailand Energy and environmental implications of CO2 emissions reduction targets in Thailand Promotion of bio-fuels and their impacts on energy systems and the environment in Thailand Presentations during the workshop included:

Dissemination/Capacity Building

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Dissemination/Capacity Building

Information of the workshop is available at: http://www.serd.ait.ac.th/ep/esdgge

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Thank you

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