Metropolitan Las Vegas Challenges, Opportunities, and a Vision - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Metropolitan Las Vegas

Challenges, Opportunities, and a Vision

University of Nevada – Las Vegas

Mark Muro and Robert Lang September 8, 2009

Challenges and emerging opportunities Why we are here A vision

One reason is growth

Metro Las Vegas grew by 17 percent between 2000 and 2007 (or 2.5 percent a year!)

Population growth by county, 2000 to 2007

More than 10 percent decline Zero to 10 percent decline 0.01 to 10 percent increase 10.01 to 20 percent increase More than 20 percent increase

One reason is growth

Since then, however, growth has slowed precipitously—and for now has turned negative

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates data and metropolitan Las Vegas estimates for 2009 from Applied Analysis

Metro Las Vegas will likely record a net loss of nearly 18,000 people this year

Another is the invention here in the Mountain region of new urban forms

And we’re here because you’re at ground zero of the world economic crisis

In this regard, there is growing consensus the nation’s economies need to reposition

“The rebuilt American economy must be more export-oriented and less consumption-

• riented”
• Lawrence Summers,

Director, National Economic Council

Getty Images

And indeed, consumption is down nationally and the savings rate is rising

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1947 Q1- 2009 Q1

• 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 20 40 60 80 100 120

Savings rate Personal consumption expenditures

2 9

• I

Yet, this is problematic given Las Vegas’ hyper-dependency on consumption

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Share of metro private sector GDP from food, drinking, leisure, hospitality, construction, and real estate

In fact, Las Vegas exports very few hard goods beyond consumption

6.8% 10.0% 2.8% 1.1% 6.1% 8.9% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Value of exported goods as a share of gross metropolitan product, 2006

Source: International Trade Administration and the Bureau of Economic Analysis

Metro average

All of which means:

?

Why we are here Challenges and emerging opportunities A vision

To help places assess their standing, we have developed a Blueprint for American Prosperity

The Blueprint is a deep-going prosperity analysis framework and federal policy agenda for metros

Sustainable growth that promotes sensible urban form, reduces resource consumption and emissions, and protects the environment

According to the Blueprint, true prosperity depends on achieving three types of growth

Productive growth that boosts innovation and productivity and so generates quality jobs and rising incomes Inclusive growth that fosters a strong middle class by addressing the training and education needs of an increasingly diverse population

To achieve these goals, the nation must leverage four key assets and improve regional governance

Infrastructure Innovation Human Capital Sustainable, Quality Places + Improved governance networks

Infrastructure matters…

…because high-quality transportation, transmission, and telecommunications networks are critical to moving goods, power, ideas, and workers quickly and efficiently

Innovation matters…

…because the ability to invent and exploit new products, processes, and business models is critical for boosting productivity and competing globally

Human capital matters…

…because innovation and the demands of a more competitive economy require a workforce with education and skill levels that are continuously rising

Sustainable, quality places matter…

…because the new economic order and desire for environmental sustainability re-values dense forms, distinctive neighborhoods, and vibrant downtowns

Beyond that, improved regional governance matters…

…because wider- reaching, region-scaled networks are necessary to match the boundary- crossing, dynamic problems of the new reality

So how is Las Vegas doing?

Las Vegas faces serious challenges… but it also has momentum

Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places

Like the other Mountain metros, greater Las Vegas is underserved by interstates

Source: Federal Highway Administration

I-15—linking Las Vegas and LA—offers only two lanes each direction in some places Las Vegas and Phoenix are the largest two adjacent metros not served by an interstate highway

Greater Las Vegas and the rest of the megas are also undersupplied with intercity rail

The lack of rail service between Las Vegas and cities such as Los Angeles and Phoenix results in long travel times on strained highways

And yet, “Mountain Megas” has helped reenergize discussions of I-11

Source: Maricopa Association of Governments

A high speed rail link with southern California is now in the mix

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation

And McCarran International Airport remains a world class asset

The hub ranked as America’s 6th busiest airport in 2008, just behind fifth-place Denver and ahead of 10th-place Phoenix

Source: Airports Council International

Challenges

Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places

R&D is a critical driver of innovation & productivity, but Las Vegas conducts little of it

Top 100 Metro Average: 0.43%

Source: Analysis of 2005 Census data by Ned Hill

0.24% 0.13% 0.07% 0.15% 0.12%

Denver- Aurora, CO Las Vegas- Paradise, NV Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale, AZ Salt Lake City, UT Tucson, AZ

Share of total employment in R&D, 2005

Patenting rates remain low

Source: U.S. Trade & Patent Office

U.S. average (33.0)

76.3 151.4 34.9 28.8 26.8 72.0 48.6 475.4

100 200 300 400 500 Tucson Salt Lake City Phoenix Las Vegas Denver Colorado Springs Albuquerque San Jose CA

Utility patents by city per 100,000 people per year, 2000-2009

0.10% 10% 7% 7% 5% 6% 5% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% Percent green jobs Percent green exports Green Export/GDP (Left) Green Jobs/All Jobs (Right)

Partly as a result, Las Vegas remains fairly weak in critical green export activities

(U.S. average: 2%)

Source: Brookings analysis of 2006 data from County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Foreign Trade Office. “Green” data are from the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor, and Economic Growth

(U.S. average: 6%)

And yet, Las Vegas’ productivity continues to

• utstrip most regional competitors

Source: Gross Metropolitan Product data from Moody’s Economy.com

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Denver Metro average Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Colorado Springs Albuquerque Salt Lake City

The convening-hospitality-gaming sector remains a world-class source of export income and innovation

And natural assets, focus, and convening power are building new sectors

Challenges

Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places

Climate change has heightened water supply questions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

And while natural growth constraints have fueled relatively dense development, policy choices have left the region auto-dependent and poorly linked

And yet, a strong, dense job core represents an important starting point

Source: Elizabeth Kneebone (Brookings, 2009)

Ninety percent of Las Vegas area jobs are located within 10 miles of the city center

Radical new urban design is beginning to retrofit the autoscape

Huge strides are being made on other aspects of sustainability, such as water

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360

Source: Southern Nevada Water Authority, “Water Resource Plan 2009”

Southern Nevada Water Authority per capita gallons of water use per day

And the region has shifted faster, and farther, toward renewables than anywhere

• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Energy Information Administration

Nevada U.S. California

Share of total energy consumption from renewables

Partly as a result, Las Vegas’ carbon footprint remains below the national and regional average

2.29 2.97 2.16 2.26 2.91 3.12 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Colorado Springs Denver- Aurora Las Vegas- Paradise Phoenix- Mesa- Scottsdale Salt Lake City Tucson

Source: “Shrinking the Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan America” (Brookings, 2008)

U.S. metro average: 2.50

Million metric tons of carbon emitted per capita, 2005

In short, Las Vegas faces the future with significant promise…if it uses its time well

Challenges and emerging opportunities Why we are here A vision

And now, a vision…

The time has come for America’s newest metropolitan colossus to leverage the new drivers of prosperity and claim full global city status

Robert Lang - (571) 296-1033, rlang@vt.edu Mark Muro - (202) 797-6315, mmuro@brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/metro/intermountain_west.aspx

For More Information

Brookings Mountain West Initiative

http://brookingsmtnwest.unlv.edu