Measuring Up Rick Curtis Facilitator Chief Superintendent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Practically Science, Technology and Measuring Up Rick Curtis

Facilitator Chief Superintendent Department of Fire & Emergency Services

8 – 11 August 2017, Busselton, Western Australia

Examining the Science, Technology and Research of Prescribed Burning. Presentation 1 - “More burning, less fire” – Dr Richard Thornton - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Presentation 2 - “Another tool for prescribed burning” - Agnes Kristina Dept Fire & Emergency Services Presentation 3 - “Research is important? Really?” - Dr Richard Thornton - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

More burning, less fire

Dr Richard Thornton Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Australia’s fire-prone landscapes

Structure:  People have been burning for thousands of years and must continue to do so  When people burn more, there is less fire  Large fires are unacceptable because they are harmful and costly  Prescribed burning greatly enhances the effectiveness of fire preparedness, planning and suppression response.  Effective burning measures

REGIONAL FIRE REGIME

CLIMATE

When people burn more, there is less fire

 In SW WA, prescribed burning reduced the scale of bushfires 1960s-1990s.  BUT big fires return in the new millennium  Similar pattern across southern Australia  Similar pattern in central and northern Australia following cessation of traditional Aboriginal burning

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1951- 1960 1961- 1970 1971- 1980 1981- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2010 20011- 2015 Area (%) Decade Decadal trends in the mean annual proportion (%) of south west forests (2.5M ha) burnt by prescribed fire and wildfire 1951-2015

PB WF

Why an increase in bushfire in southern Australia this millennium?

Can we blame it all on climate change? No Is it multi-factorial? Yes The reduction in anthropogenic (prescribed) burning is a key driver of megafires

Prescribed burning is a powerful synergiser for preparedness, planning and suppression actions

 If fuels are allowed to build up

• ver

large areas suppression will fail  Reducing fuel load reduces the speed and power of a bushfire  In a low fuel load landscape there will always be a part of the fire that can be attacked

Forest fire danger rating

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Fire line intensity (kW/m)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 7.5 t/ha (< 5 years since last burn) 10 t/ha (5 - 8 years since last burn) 15 t/ha (8 - 15 year since last burn) 25 t/ha (long unburnt areas)

Low Mod High Very High Severe

Fuel Hazard 4 Fuel Hazard 4 Fuel Hazard 3 Fuel Hazard 2

Effective burning

To be effective, prescribed burning must be:

 Strategic (right places)  Done at appropriate temporal and spatial scales Done to appropriate standards Ecologically appropriate

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 5 10 15 20 Wildfire (%) Prescribed fire (%)

Proportion of SW forest region (2.5 M ha) burnt by prescribed fire (mean of 4 yrs) with proportion burnt by wildfire (mean of succeeding 4 yrs)

(Source: Sneeuwjagt 2008; updated by Burrows)

Effective burning

(burning ain’t burning)

 Zoning

• Community protection zone
• Bushfire mitigation zone
• Biodiversity management zone

 Not a ‘medieval fortress’ strategy around settlements – we need to manage fuel in all zones

Another tool for Prescribed Burning

Agnes Kristina

Bushfire and Environmental Protection Branch

Department of Fire and Emergency Services

Prescribed burn and Technology

• Prescribed burn(ing) is defined as:

The controlled application of fire under specified environmental conditions to a predetermined area, and at a time, intensity and rate of spread required to attain planned resource-management objectives (AFAC 2012)

• Remote sensing is acquisition of information about
• bjects or areas derived from a distance, typically

from aircraft or satellites (Landsat, Sentinel, MODIS, NOAA AVHRR, VIIRS and Himawari-8)

• Applications of remotely sensed data:
• Historical Fire Information,
• Real-Time Fire Information, and
• Fire Prediction (Aurora Fire Spread Simulator)

Prescribed Burn and Technology

NOAA AVHRR MODIS LANDSAT

BENEFICIAL ECOLOGICAL BURNING FIRE REGIME fire frequency, fire extent, fire season, fire intensity, fire patchiness, and the ongoing combination of these factors (AFAC 2015b)

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Fire History)

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Present)

Historical Fire Burnt Areas Fuel Age

Grassland Curing Fuel Condition Vegetation Greenness Fuel Condition Total Dry Matter Fuel Load

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Burn Severity)

Vegetation Greenness Fuel Condition

Satellite-inferred burn severity data have become increasingly popular over the last decade for management and research purposes. The data typically quantify spectral change between pre-and post-fire satellite images

Prescribed burn and Technology (Digital Elevation Model)

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Future)

• Aurora is a national bushfire spread

prediction system

• Joint

collaboration between Department of Fire and Emergency Services, The University of Western Australia and Landgate

• Simulator considers Digital elevation

data, vegetation types, WA Bushfire Threat Analysis, Time of last burn, Rate

• f

Spread Models, Fuel Accumulation Models, Forecasted weather, Drought factor, Fire Hotspots or ignitions

• Aurora aims to:

‐ Accurately simulate a bushfire in real-time ‐

• Communicate

community warnings ‐ Improve capability in planning and responding to bushfire ‐ Web based information available to the community

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Future)

21 December 2016 24 December 2016 26 December 2016

Research is important? Really?

Dr Richard Thornton

CEO Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC www.bnhcrc.com.au

What is happening?

Lots!

→Better predictions and forecasts →Better understanding of ecological impacts/benefits →Better risk assessments and mitigation →Better understanding of smoke impact →Better fire behaviour understanding →Better community engagement knowledge

So why is this important to you?

• Data and observations - BOM is getting better at

providing these – do you know how to access them?

• Fire-fighter safety - a growing concern.
• PLUS politics and inquiries - insisting on more

burning and chastising you if you don’t.

• PLUS public and commercial outrage of being

smoked out.

• PLUS reduced public funding - and a call to be more

accountable for cost/benefits.

So why is this important to you?

When things go pear-shaped you can be sure that the inquiries – lawyers – public will all know the latest best practice and science. WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

Workshops

WORKSHOP 1- Dr Richard Thornton

How do we set measurable prescribed burn

• bjectives linked to bushfire threat and risk

mitigation? How do we evaluate that objectives have been successfully achieved taking into account efficiencies and accountability?

WORKSHOP 2 – Anges Kristina

How does your organisation currently use technology in Prescribed Burning? How would you rank available technologies in their importance to improving Prescribed Burning performance? What new technologies for prescribed burning do you see for the future and how will they be used?

WORKSHOP 3 - Dr Richard Thornton

What processes do you have in place to monitor the current state of knowledge? Who do you ask? How do you acquire and include new knowledge in your plans and processes?

Considerations and Thoughts:

• Technology and Science
• Community reaction and need
• Legal responsibility
• Strategic focus
• Standards
• Environmental impacts

Thank you, your input will make a difference.