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Institut fr Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik Measuring Employability A First Empirical Approach Dr. Helmut Apel ISG - Institut fr Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik apel@isg-institut.de Institut fr Sozialforschung und

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

Measuring Employability – A First Empirical Approach

  • Dr. Helmut Apel

ISG - Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

apel@isg-institut.de

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Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg, 13.06.2007 2

Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

Overview

  • 1. Motivation and Background
  • 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework
  • 3. Empirical Application
  • 4. Results
  • 5. Conclusions and Outlook
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Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg, 13.06.2007 3

Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 1. Motivation and Background

Institutional background: Evaluation of reformed means-tested welfare system „Basic security benefits for job-seekers“ (SGB II,

Hartz IV reform) Specifically: Evaluation of the temporary experiment concerning

the the two models of implementation, i.e.

ARGE: Cooperation of municipalities and local employment agencies (in 355 regions) zkT: Municipalities alone (in 69 municipalities)

Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) has established a research network comprising 4 research fields:

Field 1: Data collection and descriptive analyses (IAT, ZEW) Field 2: Implementation and governance analyses (ISR, infas, WZB) Field 3: Micro-econometric impact analyses (ZEW, IAQ, TNS Emnid) Field 4: Macro-economic analyses (ifo, IAW)

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 1. Motivation and Background

Since SGB II mainly aims at combating long-time unemployment “preservation and improvement of employability” is an important

  • bjective of the new welfare system.

Hence, the administrative contest between ARGE and zkT focuses

  • n two outcomes:

Job placement (primary objective) Progress in employability (secondary objective)

In research network: Field 3 is supposed to develop an empirical

concept for measuring employability progress. ISG as coordinator of the research network has together with Field 3 initialised a pilot study for this purpose.

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Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg, 13.06.2007 5

Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 1. Motivation and Background

Specific requirements and restrictions

Applicable in telephone interviews (CATI) Quantitative information Data parsimonious Almost no examples in existing literature

Particularly the application by CATIs implies important

limitations for the collected information

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Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg, 13.06.2007 6

Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework

Primary theoretical contributions

Bernard Gazier (1999): Employability. Concepts and Policies. Susanne Blancke, Christian Roth, Josef Schmidt (2000): Employability als Herausforderung für den Arbeitsmarkt. Axel Deeke, Thomas Kruppe (2003): Beschäftigungsfähigkeit als Evaluationsmaßstab?

Existing empirical concepts

„Fachkonzept Beschäftigungsorientiertes Fallmanagement SGB II“ (job-oriented case management concept of Federal Employment Agency) Arbeitshilfen Eingliederungsvereinbarungen und Profiling (Aktuelles“ Nr. 40, HE/GA) (manual and guidelines for „Integration Contracts“) Evaluation concepts from municipalities‘ labour market projects (Prof. Trube, Universitiy of Siegen)

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Helmut Apel Evaluation Conference Nürnberg, 13.06.2007 7

Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework

Review of theoretical literature and existing empirical concepts can be summarized into six dimensions of employability which are feasible for a CATI-survey:

  • I. Activities level

Job-seeking activities Further education activities

  • II. Motivation level

Intrinsic motivation Extrinsic motivation

  • III. Willingness for concessions with respect to:

Working conditions (e.g. status, mobility / flexibility requirements) Income

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  • 2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework
  • IV. Assessment of skills and capabilities

Job-related self-image („ ... got good qualification / experience“) Self-assessment soft skills (e.g. reliability, team-orientated) Self-assessment basic skills (reading, writing, internet)

  • V. Social context

Social network (meeting friends, knowing to be needed) Social support (being supported by family / friends) Milieu / peers (many unemployed friends / friends successful in job) Private situation (family conflicts, ties and obligations)

  • VI. Psychological and somatic health

Physical conditions / troubles Emotional problems

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 3. Empirical Application

Data base

Survey data

4,000 CATI-interviews (2,000 SGB II / 2,000 SGB III) Full range of unemployment duration In small number of selected ARGE-regions Controlled regional variation: east-west; urban-rural Age restriction: 18 – 57 years Interview period September 22 – October 19, 2006

Survey information is matched with data from Federal Employment Agency

Labour market status five month after interview:

Employed (regular employment or apprenticeship) Not employed (otherwise)

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 3. Empirical Application

1st Step: Principal components analysis (PCA) Multivariate statistical method to reduce information redundancies and to identify empirically independent dimensions PCA retrieves important “factors“ and their “marking variables“ Aim: Identify a compact set of survey items which capture relevant components / dimensions of employability Result: 18 variables - out of originally 77 - to represent the six dimensions (2 - 4 variables for each dimension)

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 3. Empirical Application
  • I. Activity level

Active job search during last 4 weeks Preparation of self-employment Participation in further education in last 12 months

  • II. Motivation

level

Intrinsic: „I set and pursue targets for myself“ Extrinsic: „Most important issue w.r.t work is income“

  • III. Willingness for

concessions

Change of occupation Change of residence low(er) income

  • IV. Assessment of

skills and capabilities

Self-grading: reading Willingness to learn: „I enjoy ... new experiences“ „I have sound professional experiences“ Self-grading: writing e-mail

  • V. Social context

Social support: „Nobody really supports me“ Disintegrated milieu: „... got many unemployed friends“ Social integration: „… often joining friends …“ Family ties and conflicts „.. too many fam. conflicts“

  • VI. Psycho-somatic

health

Physical fitness: Hours, being able to work per day Positive attitude: „ … mostly find positive aspects, too“

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  • 3. Empirical Application

2nd Step: Probit estimations

LHS variable:

Employed five months after interview (yes / no)

RHS variables:

Observable socio-demographic characteristics: sex, age, schooling, professional qualification, situation before unemployment (work, training) 18 indicators of employability identified by PCA

Seven specifications:

Spec.1: Socio-demographic variables only

  • Specs. 2-7: Stepwise inclusion of the 6 groups of employability indicators

Aim: Testing the predictive power of the employability indicators controlling for socio-demographic characteristics Idea: Employed individuals exhibit high degree of employability ⇒ variables displaying a significant association with employment probability indicate relevant dimensions of employability

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 4. Results

Continuous increase of pseudo R2:

Model pseudo R2 1: Benchmark: Socio-demographics only .062 2: plus Job search / further education activities .066 3: plus Motivation level .073 4: plus Willingness for concessions .089 5: plus Assessment of skills and capabilities .096 6: plus Social context .098 7: plus Psycho-somatic health .116

Predictive power of group of socio-demographic characteristics continuously decreases; but variables remain jointly significant Each group of employability indicators is jointly significant (at least weakly); individual significance of indicators within each group varies

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik *= p ≤ .10 ** = p ≤ .05 *** = p ≤ .01

  • 4. Results: Significant Marginal Effects
  • I. Action level * *

(East only)

+ (.06) Active job search during last 4 weeks

  • Preparation of self-employment
  • Further education in last 12 months
  • II. Motivational

level *

  • Intrinsic: „I set and pursue targets for myself“

▬ (.04) Extrinsic: „Most importance of work is income“

  • III. Willingness for

concessions* * *

  • Change of occupation

▬ (.05) Change of residence ▬ (.06) low(er) income

  • IV. Assessment of

skills and Capabilities *

  • Self-grading: reading
  • Willingness to learn: „I enjoy ... new experiences“

+ (.05) „I have sound professional experiences“ + (.05) Self-grading: writing e-mail

  • V. Social context *

▬ (.03) Social support: „Nobody really supports me“ ▬ (.02) Disintegrated milieu: „..many unemployed friends“

  • Social integration: „… often joining friends …“
  • Family ties and conflicts „..too many fam. Conflicts“
  • VI. Psycho-somatic

health * * *

+ (.12) Physical fitness: Hours, being able to work per day + (.03) Positive mind: „ mostly find positive aspects, too“

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Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik

  • 4. Results

Marginal effects of socio-demographic characteristics

  • Spec. 1

„benchmark“

  • Spec. 7

„complete model“

Sex: female Age: 18-24 vs. 45-57 years Schooling: compulsory vs. A-levels

  • Prof. qualification (none vs. acad. degree)

Before unemployment: schooling/training Before unemployment: in job

  • .04
  • .16

.13

  • .09
  • .06
  • .09
  • .05
  • .09

.06

  • -- not significant
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  • 5. Conclusions and Outlook

Conclusions

Theoretically important aspects of employability can be measured by telephone interviews Can be handled by a small data sparing item set Employability indicators increase (roughly double) the predictive power of model with socio-demographic characteristics alone Interpretation not always straightforward, e.g.: “Willingness for concessions“ rather seems to represent „discouragement“ (cf. negative association)

Outlook

Identification of specific employability indicators for different target groups (e.g. men/women, young/older, east/west) Replication with extended observation period for labour market status (9-12 months) to check robustness of results

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Thank you for your attention!