Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT

AABC EUROPE 2013

June, 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

AGENDA

The battery market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion battery value chain

Raw materials market Supplier / customer relationship Raw material cost New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2012-2030

Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

2

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2012 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

3 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Million HEV powered by LIB IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY AAB (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012 ROLAND BERGER (2011) IIT (MARCH 2010) ROLAND BERGER (2012) DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) IIT (MARCH 2011)

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 1990 2000 2010 MWh

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

4

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 1990 2000 2010 2012 MWh

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 1990 2000 2010 MWh

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

5

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1990 2000 2010 2012 Billion US $

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

50 BILLION US$ in 2012 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)

6

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1990 2000 2010 2012 Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE SLI

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 1990 2000 2010 2012 MWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

7

Lead Acid Batteries 330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion

64% 33% 3% SLI Industrial E-bikes 24% 22% 12% 40% 2% Telecom UPS Other Stationary Forklift Other motive

Industrial Batteries 54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012

• 5 000

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MWh Li-ion NiMH NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume, MWh, 1995-2012

2002-2012 (CAGR) NiCd: -2% per year NiMH: + 4% per year Li-ion: +25% per year

8

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 M$ Li-ion NiMH NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$, 1995-2012

Note: Cell level

2002-2012 (CAGR) NiCd: -6% per year NiMH: + 7% per year Li-ion: +14% per year

9

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE

Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012

10

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Rechargeable battery market by country

Japan Korea China 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LIB market by country

Japan Korea China

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh 10 500 M$ CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value

11

• 2 000

4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

12

• 5 000

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

• 2 000

4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh 10 500 M$ CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

13

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

Source: UMICORE, march 2011

18650 oversupply ratio is increasing

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

• 500

1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 M cells /Year

Supply Demand Oversupply ratio

0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

50 100 150 200 250 300

1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q 11

M cells /month

BAK ATL Lishen E-One LG SDI MAXELL SONY PANASONIC SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011: from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS

RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

14

Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Production cost

LIB Cost structure for Japanese, Chinese & Korean makers in 2012

Operating profit Depreciation SGA R&D Labor Material

Cathode cost 21% Anode cost 7% Electrolyte 5% Separator 8% Other materials 13% Depreciation 13% Direct labor 6% Energy, utilities 3% R&D 6% Sales & Adm 6% Overheads 6% Margin 6%

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

15

CATHODE SUPPLIERS 75 OOO T in 2012 Revenues: 1,85 B$ CAGR 02/12: +16% ANODE SUPPLIERS 38 000 T in 2012 Revenues: 0,6 B$ CAGR 02/12: 14% ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 29 000 T in 2012 Revenues: 0,46 B$ CAGR 02/12: 20% SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 490 M m² in 2012 Revenues: 0,9 B$ CAGR 02/12: 18% CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: > 11 B$ Gross margin: <10% ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,5 B$ PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: > 14 B$ Gross margin: <10% BINDER SUPPLIERS 5 600 Tons in 2012 Revenues: 0,16 B$ CAGR 02/12: 16%

For each component:

• Market in volume & value?
• Material used by apploication?
• Main suppliers / new comers?
• Material cost?
• Major trends?
• Technology roadmap

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY

• 10 000

20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Tons LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO

Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000-2012

16

(…)

LEADERS:

Nichia 23% Umicore 21% Others 8% Internal 4% B&M 17% Easpring 10% Reshine 10% Other China 7%

LCO – 29 KT (2012) NMC1 – 27 KT (2012)

Nichia 23% Umicore 27% Others 19% Internal 5% L&F 11% Other China 15%

LMO – 13 KT (2012) LFP – 5 KT (2012)

Nichia 8% Other Japan 16% Internal 6% Nikki 18% Qyanyun 15% Other China 37% Tatung 12% Aleees 18% Other Japan 5% Internal 6% Clariant 5% A123 10% Formosa 8% Valence 6% Others 30%

1- Including NCA

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2025

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 Tons LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO

Cathode active materials 2000- 2025 - Tons Cathode active materials in 2012: 75 000 Tons

17 ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

LCO 39% NMC 30% NCA 5% LMO 18% LFP 8%

Cathode active materials in 2025: > 330 000 Tons

LCO 24% NMC 37% NCA 7% LMO 11% LFP 21%

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

18

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS 38 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical Source: Sanyo, March 2011

LIB Anode market, (Tons) LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Tons LTO Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon Meso-Phase Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012

0% 50% 100% SANYO SONY PANASONIC SDI LGC BYD Lishen Maxell ATL BAK A123 Others ARTIFICIAL MCMB NATURAL Amorphous METAL

19

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite 61% Artificial Graphite 28% MCMB 6% Amorphous 3% Si or Sn Type 1% LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

LEADERS:

Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g Capacity (/cc) ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Cyclability ++ + Precursors

Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts… Petroleum coke Natural or petroleum coke

COST 2012- >2020 30 -> 25 $/kg 25->20 $/kg 15 -> 10 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR & many

• thers

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012

LIB separator market, M$, CAGR 2002/2012: +18% LIB Separator supplier, market share in 2012

20

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

LEADERS: ASAHI 26% TORAY 23% SUMITOMO 1% ENTEK 3% SK 13% CELGARD 19% UBE 7% Others 8%

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 29 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 2002/2012: +20% LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 2012

21

Ube 9% Mitsubishi 21% In-House 3% Tomiyama 3% PANAX-ETEC 16% Zhangjiagang Guotai- Huarong 15% Jinniu 10% Capchem 9% Shanshan 9% Others 5%

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Tons Cellular Portable PC Tablets Power tools E-Bikes Auto Others

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

LEADERS:

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang

JINNIU

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012

Electrolyte Battery makers & suppliers relation in 2012 Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2012

22

Ube Mitsubishi In-House Tomiyama PANAX- ETEC1 ZGH Jinniu Capchem Shanshan 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tons Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel

2000 4000 6000 UBE Mitsubishi Chem In-house Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC ZGH Mitsui BASF Jinniu Cap Chem ShanShan Tons

Panasonic SDI LG Chem

BYD

Lishen Maxell ATL BAK A123 NEC YUASA (LEJ) TOSHIBA Others

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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin

• membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

23

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION RAW MATERIALS ROADMAP

24

Source: Kai-Christian Möller , Fraunhofer – 2013, AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

25

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS 2012-2025

• 1 000

2 000 3 000 4 000 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR 2012-2025: +6% Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Renewal ratio increase Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells for cellular phones trends

Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2012-2025

Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Polymer Prismatic

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

26

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS 2012-2025

100 200 300 400 Emerging Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units) 2010-2025 CAGR: +4% Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2)) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025 > 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Laminate Prismatic Cylindrical

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

2025 LIB FORECASTS EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE

• 20 000

40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

MWh

Others E-bikes Household devices Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Power Tools Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones

LIB market, MWh, by application (except Auto) - CARG 2012-2025: 12% 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (Except Auto)

27

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cells/year Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr Li-P IIT - March 2012 (1)

(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference – Slide p 10

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

HEV FORECASTS 2012-2025

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

HEV penetration (% of total car sales)

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020

28

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Million USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

29

LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV

Recall slash battery profit LIB >>> NiMH but SAFETY & COST ISSUES

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion Volts 201.6 201.6 Cells 168 (28*6) 56 Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh Weight 38 kg 25 kg T°C Range + + Cyclability + ++ Safety Cost

• 50%
• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Operating profit/Revenue Sanyo MBI BYD SGS Sony NEC Maxell LGC SDI Average

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

SAFETY ISSUES

30

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled

their projects

Background Mobile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”) CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Automotive

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result

• f a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)

(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US with a Panasonic battery using NMC, NCA cathodes

Aircraft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

31

Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN

32

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch- Samsung, Enerdel- Delphi…) Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in- house and make the pack integration for OEM On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate 1

2 3 5 4 6

Comments

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

33

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity

500 1000 1500

PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US Sony BYD LG Chem JCI A123 Sanyo Ener1 Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI) GS YUASA SB Limotive Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky LG Chem - Compact… Nissan - Renault (UK) Toshiba Blue Energy Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen BAK SAFT US SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes) Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH

M$ Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

34

AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 - € 18,100 € 5,500 - € 8,000 € 50 - € 300 € 1,000 - € 2,500 € 100 - € 400 € 50 - € 400

HV batt. Pack for EV

€ 8,150 - € 15,100 € 150 - € 350 € 900 - € 1,250 € 150 - € 350 € 150 - € 250 € 300 - € 500 € 1,500 - € 3,000 Charger DC/DC converter Inverter Rectifier Generator Inverter HV battery cell Packaging material LV battery pack Cooling Syst HV Cables & Connectors Batt. Magt Syst Batt. Packaging Manuf. Overall

HV batt. CELL for EV

0 € 2 000 € 4 000 € 6 000 € 8 000 € 10 000 € 12 000 € Power Elec Pack Manufacturing BMS Thermal Mgmt + packaging Cell manu Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

35

AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5 BOLLORE BLUE CAR

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION BATTERY COST 2011-2020

LIB cell average cost (EV design ; NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

36

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

2015* 2020* 2011*

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2015 2020 $ / kWh Margin Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte Anode cost Cathode cost

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kWh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Electrolyte Separator Anode Cathode

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

EV FORECASTS 2011-2020

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020 EV impact on the LIB & raw material market is HUGE

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IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011 IIT (March 2010) AAB Deutsche Bank Roland Berger AVICENNE IIT (March 2011) 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2015 2020

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

4 50 45 400 1000 10000 25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone Portable PC Power Tools E-bikes HEV P-HEV EV Average Wh per device

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2012-2025: +20% Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR 2012-2025: +12%

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20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

• 20 000

40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2000 – 2025

Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level) Rechargeable battery market, M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

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5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 M $ NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ NiCd NiMH except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB Cyl LIB Pr LIB Pol LIB Auto

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020

Micro-hybrids car market 2010-2020 Micro-hybrid batteries

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Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors) LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki) Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2015 2020 Million

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid Full HEV Battery Advanced lead acid NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 300 3000 Fuel saving 5% 20% Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020 35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES

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Standard Lead acid Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion batteries NiMH batteries STANDARD CAR 88.5%

EV P-HEV

FULL HEV 1% MILD HEV 0.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 10%

Advanced Lead acid

NiMH STANDARD CAR 44% MICRO HYBRID 50%

EV P-HEV 2%

FULL HEV 4%

ULTRA BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

TAKEAWAYS

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Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

Battery Market 2010-2025 CAGR = +8%

Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025 MWh

Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%) NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%) LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025) 25 B$ 49 B$ 60 B$ 78 B$ 92 B$ 280 GWh 380 GWh 575 GWh 775 GWh

2,3 15 11 23 52 32

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY c.pillot@avicenne.com Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

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About AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI Headquarter: Paris Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot 5 consultants

A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market 21st Edition Customized survey 45

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

OUR BUSINESS STORY

1992

• AVICENNE Creation

1994

• AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business
• pportunities
• AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN

1999

• « BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris

2003

• AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by

ALCATEL 2008

• AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

2009

• AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing

– China 2010

• Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN
• 20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

2011

• AVICENNE Energy division is created
• 13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

2013

• 22nd Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025
• 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS

46

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

OUR METHODOLOGY

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Primary Research Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys Case Studies Reference Customers

Qualitative Quantitative Strategic

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

Track valuable Information's Strategic Analysis Presentation of the results Q&A with customers Customer Evaluation

INFORMATION COLLECTION

SUPPLY SIDE DEMAND SIDE

47

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers OEM Raw materials suppliers Environment & recycling BMS Electronics Substitution technologies

Conferences & Exhibitions Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts

48

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Source : Photo from BASF

Raw Materials BMS & Electronics Cooling Systems Power Electronics Batteries

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

50

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP MODERATOR

BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE – (1999-2012)

Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2010-2025” INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020” AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020” THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 “HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2010) EVER 2009, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”

EVS 20011, “Battery market for automotive industry” CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide” Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010

Chairman & speaker, “The battery business 2009-2020”

EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA,

International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) “The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges” China Industry Battery Fair 2006 “The Chinese battery Industry”

…

Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

BATTERIES 2013 OCTOBER 14TH-16TH

3 days congress in France (Nice) 15th Edition (first edition in 1999) 500 attendees 40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating, 80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

www.batteriesevent.com

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Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE

SUMMARY

A small team dedicated

• n the battery industry

since almost 20 years Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, … Synthetic presentation to management & CEO

• f major groups

Knowledge Methodology Expert Network Flexibility

We will help and support your growth

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