Managing timetable risks T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19 Agenda. - PDF document

Managing timetable risks T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19 Agenda. 1. Railway Timetable in Switzerland 2. Managing Timetable Risks 3. Outline of Future Projects SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 2

Swiss Railway Network SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 3 The swiss rail market. Total Swiss railway network Total Swiss railway network Path allocation Path allocation Railway undertakings Railway undertakings SBB: 3 230 km* SBB: 3 230 km* Passenger operators 17 RU Passenger operators 17 RU 81% BLS: BLS: 434 km 434 km 11% Freight operators Freight operators 22 RU 22 RU Standard SOB: 123 km SOB: 123 km 3% gauge RU for worksite or RU for worksite or with historical with historical 3 RU: 21 – 50 km each 3 RU: 21 – 50 km each 3 800 km rolling stock 9 RU rolling stock 9 RU Each railway Each railway 4 RU 10 – 20 km each 4 RU 10 – 20 km each company with company with RU figures of 2016 separate in- separate in- 5 RU < 10 km each 5 RU < 10 km each house path house path allocation allocation Narrow gauge 34 RU (without tramways) 34 RU (without tramways) 1 765.0 km *incl. Thurbo, Sensetalbahn, port railways of Switzerland, Vevey-Chexbres and Courtemaîche-Bure; operated by SBB SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 4

Yearly train path allocation process Source: SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 5 https://www.trasse.ch/file/2%20Trassennutzung/2.5%20Überlasteterklärung/2.5.1%20Simplon%202020/190514_Kapazitaetsanalyse_Brig_Iselle_2020_DE.pdf Train Driver Timetable Railway Timetable Online-Timetable Time-distance diagram Network graphic Ú A Timetable (Schedule) defines for public transport (and for freight) the run of each mean of transport. (A timetable defines when will be each mean of transport at which stations.) Ú The aim of a timetable is to ensure that all means of transport have a „green wave“ and can run without delay. SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 6

Swiss Timetable «Layers» of mixed traffic SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 8

Timetable: long term planning SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 9 Timetable: middle term planning SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 10

Timetable: “short” term planning SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 11 Basic elements of a timetable Offer Rolling Stock Infrastructure SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 12

Construction of a timetable Ú Define the routing of the train Ú Define the rolling stock for the train Ú Define the stopping point of the train Ú Define the dwelling time of the train (considering connections) Ú Calculate the minimal running time of the train and add time margin Ú Place the train on the timeline so that no conflicts occurs with other trains (if needed locally reroute or add/subtract some time margin) SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 13 Agenda. 1. The Timetable in Switzerland (Mixed Traffic, fixed Timeline, many years in advance, based on know how) 2. Managing Timetable Risks 3. Outline of Future Projects SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 14

Punctuality limit is set at 180 seconds Limit at 3 min Punctual trains Delayed trains SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 15 SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable SBB Transport Nodal Points. «As fast as needed». SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 16

SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable Departure from Bern at minute HH:00 4 min dwelling time is fixed for every hour and every day BERN Arrival at Bern at minute HH:56 SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 17 Hourly variations of departure delay SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 18

Tools for simulation and analysis Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Real Traffic Data SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 19 Education program for skilful planners Ú Stability analysis with OTT Ú Stability analysis with OTT after education program before education program Experts Timetable planners (~200) SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 20

Continuous improvement process of the timetable Ú Key is to take in account the dynamic of the railway system Analyze Use the of capacity network Create Stabilize capacity network SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 21 Tools for simulation and analysis Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Simulation of Traffic Real Traffic Data SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 22

Tools for simulation and analysis Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Punctuality Forecast Simulation of Traffic Real Traffic Data SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 23 Knock on Delay Analysis of single track Koblenz-Turgi

25 26

Situation of a day with 5 [min] departure delay 27 1 2 3 28

3 Connection 4 5 6 7 29 Infrastructure Improvement single track Koblenz-Turig

31 Network Wide Stochastic Analysis

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 33 SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 34

Stability assessment of future timetable Differences of Primary Delays Punctuality forecasted punctuality (Calibrated) Forecast 1 X < -3% -3% < X < -1.5% Timetable 1 -1.5% < X < 1.5% 1.5% < X < 3% 3% < X < 100% Primary Delays Punctuality (Calibrated) Forecast 2 Timetable 2 SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 35 Riskmanagement for timetable Eintretens- Eintretensfälle pro wahrscheinlich Risikopotential nach Konzernmatrix Fahrplanjahr VP 15) keit >3000 sehr gross 16 26 36 46 56 66 2001-3000 gross 15 25 35 45 55 65 1001-2000 mittel gross 14 24 34 44 54 64 101-1000 mittel 13 23 33 43 53 63 21-100 klein 12 22 32 42 52 62 >0 und <20 sehr klein oder nur an Tagen VP 67) 11 21 31 41 51 61 Auswirkung sehr klein klein mittel mittel gross gross sehr gross Risiko erzeugt >0 und 3 bis 5 bis 7 bis 10 bis Zugsverspätung in ≥ 15 Min <3 Min <5 Min <7 Min <10 Min <15 Min Minuten pro Fall To be controled once Check possible counter measures To be continuously supervised Organize counter measures SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 36

Riskmanagement for timetable High cumulation of risks Middle cumulation of risks Isolated cumulation of risks No cumulation of risks SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 37 Agenda. 1. The Timetable in Switzerland 2. Managing Timetable Risks (Based on real traffic data, simulations, punctuality forecast and know-how of planers) 3. Outline of Future Projects SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 38

TMS-PAS KapaPlan Goal Architecture of digitalization program smartrail 4.0 Architecture, Concepts, Interfaces to be published and shared as open standards. Traffic Management System Traffic Management System Routes and Shunting Planning Rolling Stock («TMS») («TMS») (long- and shortterm) Commercial Schedule Construction Sites Track Usage in Stations All business processes only on the «IT All business processes only on the «IT Depot Layer» – basic and expensive Layer» – basic and expensive Future Soon Now «safety» systems only as «slim «safety» systems only as «slim Control Very precise control of train movements and infrastructure gatekeepers» gatekeepers» (in „seconds and meters“), based on RCS. Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling» Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling» Connectivity (high bandwidth) ETCS L3 Precise and automatic Shunting with cab signalling. localisation (GLAT) Only points and Modular vehicle ATO barriers, trackside architecture Track occupations by trains, assets reduced by persons, buildings sites, Point Barrier obstacles up to 70% SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable• 22.10.19 40

TMS KapaPlan: Automatized Construction of Timetable. Today Today Tomorrow Tomorrow • • Timetable is manually done Timetable is manually done • • Timetable made with capacity bands Timetable made with capacity bands • • Planers have many rules to know Planers have many rules to know • • System ensure feasibility System ensure feasibility • • Ordering of the train is fixed Ordering of the train is fixed • • Timetable can change within bands Timetable can change within bands à Planning and Steering are separated à Planning and Steering are separated à Planning and Steering are integrated à Planning and Steering are integrated SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable• 22.10.19 41 41 Thank you for your attention.