Managing timetable risks T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19 Agenda. - - PDF document

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Managing timetable risks T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19 Agenda. - - PDF document

Apr 28, 2023 615 likes •839 views

Managing timetable risks T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19 Agenda. 1. Railway Timetable in Switzerland 2. Managing Timetable Risks 3. Outline of Future Projects SBB Infrastructure Timetable 22.10.19 2 Swiss Railway Network SBB

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  • T. Graffagnino, ETHZ, 22.10.19

Managing timetable risks Agenda.

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 2

  • 1. Railway Timetable in Switzerland
  • 2. Managing Timetable Risks
  • 3. Outline of Future Projects
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Swiss Railway Network

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 3

The swiss rail market.

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 4

Total Swiss railway network Total Swiss railway network

Standard gauge 3 800 km Narrow gauge 1 765.0 km SBB: 3 230 km* SBB: 3 230 km* BLS: 434 km BLS: 434 km SOB: 123 km SOB: 123 km 3 RU: 21 – 50 km each 3 RU: 21 – 50 km each 5 RU < 10 km each 5 RU < 10 km each

Railway undertakings Railway undertakings Path allocation Path allocation

34 RU (without tramways) 34 RU (without tramways)

Each railway company with separate in- house path allocation Each railway company with separate in- house path allocation

Passenger operators 17 RU Passenger operators 17 RU Freight operators 22 RU Freight operators 22 RU RU for worksite or with historical rolling stock 9 RU RU for worksite or with historical rolling stock 9 RU 4 RU 10 – 20 km each 4 RU 10 – 20 km each

81% 11% 3% RU figures of 2016 *incl. Thurbo, Sensetalbahn, port railways of Switzerland, Vevey-Chexbres and Courtemaîche-Bure; operated by SBB

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Yearly train path allocation process

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 5 Source: https://www.trasse.ch/file/2%20Trassennutzung/2.5%20Überlasteterklärung/2.5.1%20Simplon%202020/190514_Kapazitaetsanalyse_Brig_Iselle_2020_DE.pdf

Railway Timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 6

Ú A Timetable (Schedule) defines for public transport (and for freight)

the run of each mean of transport. (A timetable defines when will be each mean of transport at which stations.)

Ú The aim of a timetable is to ensure that all means of transport have a

„green wave“ and can run without delay.

Time-distance diagram Online-Timetable Train Driver Timetable Network graphic

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Swiss Timetable «Layers» of mixed traffic

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 8

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Timetable: long term planning

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 9

Timetable: middle term planning

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 10

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Timetable: “short” term planning

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 11

Basic elements of a timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 12

Offer Infrastructure Rolling Stock

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Construction of a timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 13

Ú Define the routing of the train Ú Define the rolling stock for the train Ú Define the stopping point of the train Ú Define the dwelling time of the train

(considering connections)

Ú Calculate the minimal running time

  • f the train and add time margin

Ú Place the train on the timeline so that

no conflicts occurs with other trains (if needed locally reroute or add/subtract some time margin)

Agenda.

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 14

  • 1. The Timetable in Switzerland

(Mixed Traffic, fixed Timeline, many years in advance, based on know how)

  • 2. Managing Timetable Risks
  • 3. Outline of Future Projects
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Punctuality limit is set at 180 seconds

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 15

Punctual trains Delayed trains Limit at 3 min

SBB Transport Nodal Points. «As fast as needed».

SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 16

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Arrival at Bern at minute HH:56 4 min dwelling time is fixed for every hour and every day

BERN

Departure from Bern at minute HH:00

SBB operates a yearly fixed cyclic timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 17

Hourly variations of departure delay

18 SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19

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Tools for simulation and analysis

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 19

Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Real Traffic Data

Education program for skilful planners

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 20

Ú Stability analysis with OTT

before education program

Ú Stability analysis with OTT

after education program

Timetable planners (~200)

Experts

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Use the capacity Analyze

  • f

network Stabilize network Create capacity

Continuous improvement process of the timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 21

Ú Key is to take in account the dynamic of the railway system

Tools for simulation and analysis

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 22

Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Simulation of Traffic Real Traffic Data

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Tools for simulation and analysis

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 23

Future Timetable Actual Timetable Production Simulation of Traffic Punctuality Forecast Real Traffic Data

Knock on Delay Analysis

  • f single track Koblenz-Turgi
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25 26

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Situation of a day with 5 [min] departure delay

27 28

1 2 3

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29

3

Connection

4 5 6 7

Infrastructure Improvement single track Koblenz-Turig

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31

Network Wide Stochastic Analysis

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SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 33 SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 34

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Stability assessment of future timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 35

Punctuality Forecast 1 Primary Delays (Calibrated) Timetable 1 Punctuality Forecast 2 Primary Delays (Calibrated) Timetable 2

X < -3%
  • 3% < X < -1.5%
  • 1.5% < X < 1.5%
1.5% < X < 3% 3% < X < 100%

Differences of forecasted punctuality

Riskmanagement for timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 36

Eintretensfälle pro Fahrplanjahr VP 15) Eintretens- wahrscheinlich keit Risikopotential nach Konzernmatrix >3000 sehr gross

16 26 36 46 56 66

2001-3000 gross

15 25 35 45 55 65

1001-2000 mittel gross

14 24 34 44 54 64

101-1000 mittel

13 23 33 43 53 63

21-100 klein

12 22 32 42 52 62

>0 und <20

  • der nur an Tagen VP 67)

sehr klein

11 21 31 41 51 61

Auswirkung sehr klein klein mittel mittel gross gross sehr gross Risiko erzeugt Zugsverspätung in Minuten pro Fall >0 und <3 Min 3 bis <5 Min 5 bis <7 Min 7 bis <10 Min 10 bis <15 Min ≥15 Min

To be controled once To be continuously supervised Organize counter measures Check possible counter measures

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Riskmanagement for timetable

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 37

Isolated cumulation of risks Middle cumulation of risks No cumulation of risks High cumulation of risks

Agenda.

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable • 22.10.19 38

  • 1. The Timetable in Switzerland
  • 2. Managing Timetable Risks

(Based on real traffic data, simulations, punctuality forecast and know-how of planers)

  • 3. Outline of Future Projects
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TMS-PAS KapaPlan

SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable• 22.10.19 40

Goal Architecture of digitalization program smartrail 4.0

Architecture, Concepts, Interfaces to be published and shared as open standards.

Track occupations by trains, persons, buildings sites,

  • bstacles

Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling» Gatekeeper: small «ETCS interlocking for cab signalling»

ETCS L3

Traffic Management System («TMS»)

All business processes only on the «IT Layer» – basic and expensive «safety» systems only as «slim gatekeepers»

Traffic Management System («TMS»)

All business processes only on the «IT Layer» – basic and expensive «safety» systems only as «slim gatekeepers» Only points and barriers, trackside assets reduced by up to 70%

Point Barrier

Shunting with cab signalling.

Modular vehicle architecture Precise and automatic localisation (GLAT) Control

Commercial Schedule Routes and Shunting Rolling Stock Construction Sites Track Usage in Stations Depot Future Soon Now

Planning

(long- and shortterm)

Very precise control of train movements and infrastructure (in „seconds and meters“), based on RCS.

Connectivity (high bandwidth) ATO

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SBB • Infrastructure • Timetable• 22.10.19

TMS KapaPlan: Automatized Construction of Timetable.

Today

  • Timetable is manually done
  • Planers have many rules to know
  • Ordering of the train is fixed

à Planning and Steering are separated

Today

  • Timetable is manually done
  • Planers have many rules to know
  • Ordering of the train is fixed

à Planning and Steering are separated

Tomorrow

  • Timetable made with capacity bands
  • System ensure feasibility
  • Timetable can change within bands

à Planning and Steering are integrated

Tomorrow

  • Timetable made with capacity bands
  • System ensure feasibility
  • Timetable can change within bands

à Planning and Steering are integrated

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Thank you for your attention.