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Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Jack May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Jack May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Jack May Jack.May@dia.mil Defense Intelligence Agency 15 April 2013 Directorate for Analysis Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Overview Underlying Causes of Instability Methods
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Underlying Causes of Instability
§ Geography § Hydrological /Disaster Variability* § Access to Resources and Trade* § Demographic Structure § High Population size and growth rates* § High youth percentage § Population Group Dynamics—Tribal, Religious, Ethnic, Urban/Rural, Linguistic § Location and Movement—Physical and Virtual* § Level of Organization* § Competing Interests and Vulnerabilities § Presence of Alliances and Rivalries § Social memory, attitudes, behaviors § Human and Economic Development § Poverty/Poor Living Conditions* § Information access* § High Unemployment § Large economic disparities § Political disenfranchisement § Supporting Infrastructure § Governance* § Security* § Access to Services *
Internal conflicts are often fought along socio-cultural, political, and economic divides, making it essential to understand these undercurrents in vital areas.
* Key factors
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Underlying Causes of Instability
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Underlying Causes of Instability
States with more than 2.5% population growth have a strong tendency to be unstable, particularly when that population is outstripping their resource availability.
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Land and Food Security
§ Access to a food (supply and distribution) is a fundamental security issue § Sustained high global food prices threaten stability of import dependent areas § A global drive to control supplies threatens stability in areas with poorly defined land rights
States that spend more of their income on food imports are most affected by persistently high global food prices. Global incidents of unrest have been most common when the FAO Food Price Index has risen above 210. (UNFAO, 2013)
Underlying Causes of Instability
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Water Security
§ Water problems impact human security, national security, and economic growth, contributing to instability and regional tensions in many places § Conflicts often center on infrastructure and actions that alter historic access and are most common at the sub-national level
Underlying Causes of Instability
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Disaster Resiliency: Seasonal Variability, Flood, and Drought Risk Underlying Causes of Instability
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Underlying Causes of Instability Gradualism Catastrophism
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Methods of Addressing Instability Common Methods
§ Promote Democracy § Address Corruption § Economic Development § Security Underpins All
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Military Operational Phases
Shape the Environment Dominate Seize the Initiative Enable Civil Authority Deter Stabilize 2 1 3 5 4
“I have two missions: war fighting and engagement. If I do engagement right, I won’t have to do war fighting.” – General Zinni, Former CENTCOM Commander
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Effect of Resource Constraints The limited resource environment we are now in further challenges these efforts and add new elements of risk.
§ Pulling the pin on Phase 0 and 1 efforts could risk further costly Phase 2-5 engagements § Disengagement is more dangerous than engagement and also invites blowback
“You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” – Trotsky
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Focusing on the Most Important Tasks and Threats
Seeking solutions to conflict often overlooks many of the easier, less costly and more lucrative means to address fundamental interests § Focus on direct threats to the US homeland and major allies § Preventing the degradation of US national power § Geopolitical, Military, Economic, Social Cohesion § Cost-benefit based investments and engagement § Need to measure what we need to manage, not manage what we measure
Effect of Resource Constraints
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Emerging Africa
§ Africa seems poised to finally reach take-off speed and is becoming more strategically important. § Strong economic growth § Presence of natural resources and potential markets § Significant improvements in African security forces
“Never in the half-century since it won independence from the colonial powers has Africa been in such good shape.” – The Economist, Mar 2013
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Africa Challenges
§ Access difficult due to geography and infrastructure § Europe’s coastline is 2-3 times longer than Africa’s § One billion people speaking over 2,000 languages
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Africa: Key Focus Areas
§ North Africa § The Sahel § Nigeria § Horn of Africa § Sudan/South Sudan § Sub-Saharan Africa § Central/Southern Africa
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North Africa
§ Egypt is an important regional player, provides for transit through the Suez Canal, and is home to half the world’s Arab population § Economic difficulties and the Arab Spring continuing to challenge stability
Nigeria
§ Most populous state in Africa; 7th in the world with >500 ethno- linguistic groups § Accounts for about 10% of US oil imports § Largest contributor to peacekeeping missions in Africa § Terrorist groups have leveraged Nigeria’s uneven wealth distribution, sectarian divides, and limited security capacity § North-South and Christian-Muslim divides § Some internal resistance to security partnerships
Africa: Key Focus Areas
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Sahel—Mali, Chad, Niger, Senegal, Mauritania, Burkina Faso
§ AQIM leveraging the socio-economically and politically fragile region as a safehaven § Limited infrastructure and harsh environment limits access § Limited capacity to address issues outside of counterterrorism
Africa: Key Focus Areas Horn of Africa—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti
§ Strong economic growth in Ethiopia § Internal instability, terrorism, and piracy § CJTF-HOA in Djibouti is the largest US military presence in Africa
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Sudan and South Sudan
§ Sudan and South Sudan militaries are two of the largest in Sub- Saharan Africa with risk of violence between the two remaining high since 2011 partition
Africa: Key Focus Areas Sub-Saharan Africa
§ Presence of foreign and rogue actors a challenge § Many border tension issues and violent competition for land, water, and other resources, which could grow as development continues § Urbanization and growing youth population § Recurring humanitarian disasters § Potential growth of transnational criminal organizations
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Central/Southern Africa—South Africa, DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, Zimbabwe
§ Numerous militias in the eastern Congo threaten stability § Angola the source of about 7% of US oil imports
Africa: Key Focus Areas
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Institutional Engagement Vital to engage the full-spectrum of institutions for sustained instability management, particularly in a limited resource environment and before crises develop.
§ USG: DoD, USAID, State, IC, FBI, DOE, DEA, Institute of Peace, National Labs § Host governments and security forces § Commonwealth Partners, European Allies, African Union (AU), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) § UN Organizations § Non-governmental groups: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, CSIS, Wilson Center, Eurasia Group, NGOs § Academic: CCAPS, NDU, NIU, USAWC
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