Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Jack May - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Jack May Jack.May@dia.mil Defense Intelligence Agency 15 April 2013

Directorate for Analysis Managing Conflict and Instability in Africa Overview § Underlying Causes of Instability § Methods of Addressing Instability § Effect of Resource Constraints § Emerging Africa § Africa Challenges § Key Focus Areas § Institutional Engagement § Policy Options 2

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability Internal conflicts are often fought along socio-cultural, political, and economic divides, making it essential to understand these undercurrents in vital areas. * Key factors Geography Human and Economic Development § § § Hydrological /Disaster Variability* § Poverty/Poor Living Conditions* § Access to Resources and Trade* § Information access* § Demographic Structure § High Unemployment § High Population size and growth rates* § Large economic disparities § High youth percentage § Political disenfranchisement § Population Group Dynamics—Tribal, Religious, § Supporting Infrastructure Ethnic, Urban/Rural, Linguistic § Governance* § Location and Movement—Physical and Virtual* § Security* § Level of Organization* § Access to Services * § Competing Interests and Vulnerabilities § Presence of Alliances and Rivalries § Social memory, attitudes, behaviors 3

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability 4

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability States with more than 2.5% population growth have a strong tendency to be unstable, particularly when that population is outstripping their resource availability. 5

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability Land and Food Security § Access to a food (supply and distribution) is a fundamental security issue § Sustained high global food prices threaten stability of import dependent areas § A global drive to control supplies threatens stability in areas with poorly defined States that spend more of their income on food imports are most affected by persistently high land rights global food prices. Global incidents of unrest have been most common when the FAO Food Price Index has risen above 210. (UNFAO, 2013) 6

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability Water Security § Water problems impact human security, national security, and economic growth, contributing to instability and regional tensions in many places § Conflicts often center on infrastructure and actions that alter historic access and are most common at the sub-national level 7

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability Disaster Resiliency: Seasonal Variability, Flood, and Drought Risk 8

Directorate for Analysis Underlying Causes of Instability Gradualism Catastrophism 9

Directorate for Analysis Methods of Addressing Instability Common Methods § Promote Democracy § Address Corruption § Economic Development § Security Underpins All 10

Directorate for Analysis Military Operational Phases “ I have two missions: war fighting and engagement. If I do engagement right, I won ’ t have to do war fighting. ” – General Zinni, Former CENTCOM Commander 0 1 2 Shape the Environment Deter Seize the Initiative Dominate Stabilize Enable Civil Authority 3 4 5 11

Directorate for Analysis Effect of Resource Constraints The limited resource environment we are now in further challenges these efforts and add new elements of risk. § Pulling the pin on Phase 0 and 1 efforts could risk further costly Phase 2-5 engagements § Disengagement is more dangerous than engagement and also invites blowback “ You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you. ” – Trotsky

Directorate for Analysis Effect of Resource Constraints Focusing on the Most Important Tasks and Threats Seeking solutions to conflict often overlooks many of the easier, less costly and more lucrative means to address fundamental interests § Focus on direct threats to the US homeland and major allies § Preventing the degradation of US national power § Geopolitical, Military, Economic, Social Cohesion § Cost-benefit based investments and engagement § Need to measure what we need to manage, not manage what we measure

Directorate for Analysis Emerging Africa § Africa seems poised to finally reach take-off speed and is becoming more strategically important. § Strong economic growth § Presence of natural resources and potential markets § Significant improvements in African security forces “ Never in the half-century since it won independence from the colonial powers has Africa been in such good shape. ” – The Economist, Mar 2013 14

Directorate for Analysis Africa Challenges § Access difficult due to geography and infrastructure § Europe ’ s coastline is 2-3 times longer than Africa ’ s § One billion people speaking over 2,000 languages 15

Directorate for Analysis Africa: Key Focus Areas § North Africa § The Sahel § Nigeria § Horn of Africa § Sudan/South Sudan § Sub-Saharan Africa § Central/Southern Africa 16

Directorate for Analysis Africa: Key Focus Areas North Africa § Egypt is an important regional player, provides for transit through the Suez Canal, and is home to half the world ’ s Arab population § Economic difficulties and the Arab Spring continuing to challenge stability Nigeria § Most populous state in Africa; 7 th in the world with >500 ethno- linguistic groups § Accounts for about 10% of US oil imports § Largest contributor to peacekeeping missions in Africa § Terrorist groups have leveraged Nigeria ’ s uneven wealth distribution, sectarian divides, and limited security capacity § North-South and Christian-Muslim divides § Some internal resistance to security partnerships 17

Directorate for Analysis Africa: Key Focus Areas Sahel—Mali, Chad, Niger, Senegal, Mauritania, Burkina Faso § AQIM leveraging the socio-economically and politically fragile region as a safehaven § Limited infrastructure and harsh environment limits access § Limited capacity to address issues outside of counterterrorism Horn of Africa—Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti § Strong economic growth in Ethiopia § Internal instability, terrorism, and piracy § CJTF-HOA in Djibouti is the largest US military presence in Africa 18

Directorate for Analysis Africa: Key Focus Areas Sudan and South Sudan § Sudan and South Sudan militaries are two of the largest in Sub- Saharan Africa with risk of violence between the two remaining high since 2011 partition Sub-Saharan Africa § Presence of foreign and rogue actors a challenge § Many border tension issues and violent competition for land, water, and other resources, which could grow as development continues § Urbanization and growing youth population § Recurring humanitarian disasters § Potential growth of transnational criminal organizations 19

Directorate for Analysis Africa: Key Focus Areas Central/Southern Africa—South Africa, DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, Zimbabwe § Numerous militias in the eastern Congo threaten stability § Angola the source of about 7% of US oil imports 20

Directorate for Analysis Institutional Engagement Vital to engage the full-spectrum of institutions for sustained instability management, particularly in a limited resource environment and before crises develop. § USG: DoD, USAID, State, IC, FBI, DOE, DEA, Institute of Peace, National Labs § Host governments and security forces § Commonwealth Partners, European Allies, African Union (AU), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) § UN Organizations § Non-governmental groups: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, CSIS, Wilson Center, Eurasia Group, NGOs § Academic: CCAPS, NDU, NIU, USAWC 21

Directorate for Analysis Policy Questions § What potential is there for partnership engagement at all levels— from the local level to international? § What is the cost-benefit and sustainability of our policy options? § What capabilities do we need to develop in light of resource constraints (i.e. flexible, light footprint, better strategic warning, evolution of COIN)? § What advantages might we have in taking a less prominent role in some cases? § What risks are most threatening to our interests (i.e. extremists taking state power)? § Should local engagement be prioritized over state level engagement in some areas? § Are our governance models appropriate? § What role can technology play? § What are our goals? 22