Making Better Decisions in Complex Times Karen Bowen We will begin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Making Better Decisions in Complex Times

We will begin shortly, please note to eliminate audio interference you are on automatically set on mute. If you have any questions please enter them in chat! Karen Bowen

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What Today Is About

• Emotions Values & Beliefs
• Decision Making Approaches
• Bias
• Risk

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Understanding Emotion

“The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information we cant directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent.”

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Beliefs & Values

• Beliefs are “Decision Making

Filters”

• Values are “Decision Making

Lenses”

www.eqdevgroup.com / www.myeqcoach.com “In a knowledge based economy, we propose that a knowledge worker’s primary deliverable is a good decision.”

How Can Decision Making Be Improved? Milkman, Chugh, Bazerman. 2008

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What Is A Decision?

Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+a+decision

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Common Challenges

• Lack of clarity on desired outcome
• Overconfidence
• Moving too fast
• Perceptual Narrowing
• Avoidance
• Information Overload
• Information Underload
• Cognitive Bias

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Complexity

CONFUSION

You are here.

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How We Decide

“Truly successful decision-making relies on a balance between deliberate and instinctive thinking.”

• Malcolm Gladwell

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Two Approaches

• Will research extensively
• Will continue to look for new

alternatives even after suitable choices have been identified.

• Will always aim to make the best

possible choice.

• Tend to mull over decisions at length.
• Are often less content with their

choices after the fact.

Maximizers

Satisfiers

• Will research only to the extent they

feel necessary.

• Will choose an option that they feel is

‘good enough’.

• Tend to make decisions more quickly.
• Are more content with their choices

(less concerned with alternatives they didn’t choose)

Source: Schwarz – The Paradox of Choice, Wiley, 2005.

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Which Is It For You?

• What do you consider to be some of

the advantages of your approach?

• What do you consider to be some of

the disadvantages?

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Intuitive/Rational

Adapted from: Starcke and Brand, 2011: Decision Making Under Stress: A Selective Review & Epstein, Pacini, Denes-Raj, and Heier, 1996: Individual differences in intuitive-experiential and analytical rational thinking styles.

Complete Ignorance (not even possible

• utcomes are

known) Certainty (only a single

• utcome is known

to result) Risk (The outcome probabilities are specified) Ambiguity (The possible outcomes are known, but their probabilities are not)

More Intuitive Experimental

More Intuitive / Experiential

More Rational / Analytical

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Exploring the YOU in Decision Making

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Cognitive Biases

A systematic error in thinking that affects decisions and judgments. Cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.

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Bias Blindness…

“…these are not just occasional errors in judgment but rather routine mistakes, barriers to logic we stumble over time and again, repeating patterns through generations and through the

• centuries. For example, it is much more common that we
• verestimate our knowledge than we underestimate it.”
• Rolf Dobelli

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Cognitive Bias (just a few)

• False Consensus Effect
• Curse of Knowledge
• Reactive Devaluation
• IKEA Effect
• Ostrich Effect

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False Consensus Effect

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Curse of Knowledge

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Reactive Devaluation

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IKEA Effect

source: www.sketchplanations.com

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Ostrich Effect

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Decision Based Evidence Making

Evidence Based Decision Making

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Where Does Risk Fit?

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The 8 Risk Types

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Risk Type & Decision Making

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Risk Type in Working Population

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10 Ways To Make Decisions Better

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1.Take Care Of Yourself

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• 2. Beware Decision Fatigue

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• 3. Acknowledge The Feeling

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• 4. Slow Down, or Even Stop

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• 5. Delegate What You Can

Tannenbaum & Schmidt (1973)

Use of Authority by Leader Area of Freedom by Subordinates

Leader Centered Subordinate Centered

Leader permits subordinates to function within defined limits Leader makes and announces decision Leader sells decision Leader presents ideas and invites questions Leader presents tentative decision subject to change. Leader presents problems, gets suggestions, makes decision Leader defines limits; asks group for decision

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• 6. Seek Support

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• 7. Seek (Some) More Information

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• 8. Discuss Decisions

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• 9. Make More Decisions

“Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most important quality in a good leader. Don’t fall victim to what I call the ‘ready-aim-aim-aim-aim’

• syndrome. You must be willing to fire.”
• T. Boone Pickens

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• 10. Learn From Your Successes (and Mistakes)

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LinkedIn:

• Karen Bowen
• Drew Bird

Email:

• karen@eqdevgroup.com
• drew@eqdevgroup.com

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