Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd) President - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WATER SCARCITY IN BANGLADESH AND SOUTH ASIA

Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd) President Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)

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Project Title

Water Scarcity in Bangladesh and South Asia: Examining Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation

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Introduction

 Water is considered as one of the most crucial

non-traditional security issues.

 It is a great irony that our planet that has 70% of

its surface covered with water is facing an acute water crisis.

 Water scarcity is one of the key challenge in

Bangladesh and South Asia.

 The

Himalayan River Basin are seriously threatened by water stress with implications for internal and cross-boundary development and security in the region.

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Contd

 The World Water Assessment Program, released World

Water Development Report (WWDR, 2003), published by the UNESCO indicates that within next 20 years the availability of water would decreased to everyone by

30%. Less than 40% has the availability of hygiene

• water. In 2000 more than 2.2 million people died of water

diseases for contaminated water. In 2004 the UK charity Water Aid reported that one child die in every 15 seconds for water-related diseases.

 Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable country due to

climate related water challenges.

 Bangladesh

being a river-reign country is largely dependent on natural sources of water for living.

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Areas vulnerable to climate-related water challenges

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change 5

Rational of the Project

 Water is one of the most necessary

components of human life. Water scarcity and stress will have serious impact on the quality of human life in this region.

 Disequilibrium situation in ecological

balance of the country, resulting into the loss of species and plants.

 The scarcity of water may lead intra/ inter

state conflict in South Asia.

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Contd.

 Regional Linkage between Bangladesh, India

and Nepal

 India shares with Bangladesh the same river

basins, hydrological cycles and eco-universe.

 54 rivers enter Bangladesh from India carrying

water, silt, and pollutants.

 Disputes over barrages and dams India has built

• r is planning on the Ganges, Teesta and the

Barak Rivers have become both environmental/economic and political issues in Bangladesh.

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Contd.

 Should millions of IDPs be forced to leave home

and find no refuge in the remaining stretches of national territory, they are very likely to try to cross over into India.

 Nepal shares with northern India and

Bangladesh the same river basin and watershed.

 Nepal also is a country which Bangladesh has

repeatedly urged since the late 1970s to be included in any regional flood-control/drought- management system to be devised by India and

Bangladesh.

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Contd.

 All the countries in South Asia region are

facing acute water scarcity and are having disputes over sharing of common river water, increase probability a crisis to conflict situation.

 Challenges in Water Sharing

• 1. Too much water in monsoon and too little

water in dry season.

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Contd.

2.Construction of Dam and embankment in the upstream

• a. This is been threaten by

upstream water withdrawal and enhanced risk during flood.

• b. Farakka: A problem of

limited water

• c. Tipaimukh

3.Allocation of water in lean period is a major issue.

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Contd.

 Adoption of a regional approach to

mitigate the threat of conflict originating from water crisis is essential.

 While the situations present challenges to

regional and local conflict management, there may be also seen as opportunities for cooperation.

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Key Objectives of the Projects

 To assess challenges related to river

water scarcity in Bangladesh and their impacts on livelihoods, socio-economic conditions and natural ecosystems.

 To develop a cooperative mechanism

among researchers in this region to deal with the problems of water scarcity, water management and water sharing.

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Contd.

 To create collaborative learning on

lessons and best practices from the arrangements and cooperation mechanism in use by Central Asia and Egypt.

 To explore possibilities to develop

institutional mechanisms and strategies for regional and sub-regional cooperation in managing water stress.

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Contd.

 To create collaborative learning on

international experiences in best practices in river management, both internal and trans-boundary river flows.

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Impact of Water Scarcity In Bangladesh

 The main sources of water in Bangladesh are

Rivers and Ground Water.

 Almost 800 rivers in Bangladesh, most rise from

the Himalayan reign and fall into the Bay of Bengal.

 Bangladesh is situated in the deltaic part of the

region.

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Contd.

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Contd.

 Rainfall

• Bangladesh Environment

Network has shown in a research that 2°c increase in temperature will lead to 4.6% increase in precipitation over Ganges River Basin.

• By 2050, the average annual

runoff in the Bharmaputra river could be decline by 14%.

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Contd.

 Sea Level Rise:

• The

salinity levels is expected to increase further in the coastal districts.

• A simultaneous sea level rise would

result in back water effect in the Lower Meghna Basin, pushing saline water further inland.

• Bangladesh

has about 2·8 million hectares of land that is affected by salinity.

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/impact-

• f-sea-level-rise-in-bangladesh

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Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario

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• About 20 to 30 million people in Bangladesh alone could

be on the move by 2050 because of climate change, causing the worst migration in human history.

• The coastal region covers almost 29,000 sq.

km or about 20% of the country. Again, the coastal areas of Bangladesh cover more than 30% of the cultivable lands of the

• country. About 53% of the coastal areas are

affected by salinity.

• The IPCC statistics shows that rising sea

levels will wipe out more cultivable land in Bangladesh than anywhere in the world. By 2050, rice production is expected to drop 10 percent and wheat production by 30 percent.

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Contd.

Contd.

 Pollution:

• Inadequate

draining facilities, dumping

• f

solid wastes, discharge from sugar mills and sewage disposal, further compound the pollution problems confronting the river’s ecosystem.

• Severe degradation of fresh water

and marine ecosystem has led to further decline

• f

fishing in Bangladesh.

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Contd.

• Arsenic Poisoning:
• World Health Organization

described the arsenic contamination in Bangladesh as “the largest mass poisoning

• f a population in history”.
• The results of a ten year, large

population study by Lancet (2010) showed the link between arsenic contamination and deaths in Bangladesh.

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Contd.

• Half of Bangladeshis,

up to 77 million people, have been exposed to the toxic arsenic, says the Lancet.

(Source: The Lancet, Volume 376, Issue 9737, Pages 252 - 258, 24 July 2010)

23 Figure: Intensity of Arsenic Contaminated (50 m g/L) Tubewells in Bangladesh Source:http://www.physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/arsenic/co nferences/Feroze_Ahmed/Sec_2.htm

 Drinking Water Quality

• Poor water quality, especially in

rural areas has been recognized in the National Water Policy (NWP) of 1999.

• In rural areas, more than 97% of the population

relies on groundwater for its drinking water supply.

• A severe supply shortage is expected by 2015 if the

utility continues abstraction from groundwater at the current extent.

Contd.

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Contd.

 Impact on Livelihood

• The

freshwater fish consumption fell by 38% amongst poor wetland inhabitants between 1995 and 2000.

• Due to water scarcity, the

demand for water will

• utstrip

the supply in Bangladesh.

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Research Methodology

 Statistical analyses with the help of Stata

software

 Quantitative data collection  Data on hydrological flows  Meteorological Data collection  Conflict data collection  Semi Structured Interviews/ In depth

interviews with Key informants.

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Contd.

 Project Partners:

• Center for Economic and Technical Studies,

Nepal.

• Observer Research Foundation, India.

 Fieldwork at three different field sites: in

Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

 Filed sites will be chosen in the same riverine

basin area, in eastern Nepal, Northeast India and Bangladesh.

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Implementation Plan

 Project development phase

• BIPSS in consultation with PRIO and NIVA will

develop a complete research module.

 Workshop in Oslo  Filed Studies  Exchange Visits  Data Collection, Analysis and Report

Preparation

 Final Report dissemination and presentation of

results.

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Project Sustainability

 Formulate policy recommendations

Governmental Agencies Policy Makers Foreign Development Partners

 To bridge the gap between academic research

and policy analysis within Bangladesh and in South Asia.

 The findings of the project will bring out a

possible framework for the basin-wide management of transboundary river water.

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Network Establishment

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In India: 1.Observer Research Foundation (ORF) 2.The Energy Research Institute (TERI)

• 3. Institute of Peace and Conflict

Studies (IPCS)

• 4. Strategic Foresight Group

In Nepal:

• 1. Center for Economic and

Technical Studies (CETS)

• 2. International Centre for

Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) BIPSS in

collaboration

with PRIO In Bangladesh: 1.BIPSS 2.Governmental Agencies

• 3. National/

International NGOs

• 3. Think Tanks

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Thank you

Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)

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