Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee Meeting March 21, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

March 21, 2019 Frank Bergon Senior Center Madera, CA

Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee Meeting

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• 1. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS
• 2. APPOINTMENT OF CHAIR AND VICE CHAIR
• 3. GSA / GSP OVERVIEW
• 4. PRESENTATION FROM STATE WATER RESOURCES CONTROL BOARD
• 5. GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY PLAN GSA PROJECTS
• 6. PRESENTATION ON GROUNDWATER MODELING
• 7. JOINT MADERA SUBBASIN GSP TIMELINE AND SCHEDULE
• 8. DISCUSSION AND PUBLIC INPUT
• 9. OTHER PUBLIC COMMENT
• 10. RECAP AND OUTLINE NEXT STEPS

Me Meeting Age genda

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 2: Appointment of Chair and Vice Chair

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 3: GSA/GSP Overview

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Seven (7) GSAs
• Madera County GSA
• Madera Irrigation District GSA
• City of Madera GSA
• Madera Water District GSA
• Gravelly Ford Water District GSA
• Root Creek Water District GSA
• New Stone Water District GSA
• Four (4) GSPs

Madera S Subbas asin G GSA and G GSP Overview

Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA) Joint Madera Subbasin GSP Madera County GSA Madera Irrigation District GSA City of Madera GSA Madera Water District GSA Gravelly Ford GSP Gravelly Ford Water District GSA Root Creek GSP Root Creek Water District GSA New Stone GSP New Stone Water District GSA

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Total area

~ 348,000 ac

• Irrigated (2015)

~ 216,000 ac

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 4: SWRCB Presentation

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 5: GSA Projects

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 6: Presentation on Groundwater Modeling

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

March 21, 2019

Groundwater M r Modeling: Supporting Decisions During the Madera Subbasin GSP Development

Presentation to:

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee

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Nick Watterson, PG

Supervising Hydrogeologist

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Guidance from DWR on Use of Groundwater Modeling in GSP
• Overview of Groundwater Modeling Process
• Groundwater Model Development in the Madera Subbasin
• Model Applications During the GSP Development

Outline

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• GSP analyses must employ methods sufficient to evaluate

historic/projected future water budgets and undesirable results

• Numerical modeling is a tool that can be used for these

analyses through simulation of many interrelated factors and processes

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Groundwater Modeling for GSP

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019 13

Ongoing Data Collection and Stakeholder Outreach

• 1. Establish the model

purpose and objectives

• 2. Collect and organize

hydrogeologic data

• 3. Develop or Update

Conceptual Model

• 4. Select appropriate

model code or existing model (see Figure 4)

• 5. Design and Construct
• r Revise the Model
• 6. Calibrate the model to

historical data

• 7. Conduct sensitivity

analysis of model

• 8. Run predictive

scenarios

• 9. Conduct uncertainty

analysis of scenarios Is the model adequate for the intended purpose(s)?

• 10. Model Output, Document

Model Development, Package Model Files

• 11. Periodic

Refinement of Models Collect additional hydrogeologic data

NO YES

General Modeling Process

MAKE DECISIONS

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Evaluate existing available regional models
• Develop local model through refinement of existing regional

model (as needed/appropriate)

• DWR’s Central Valley model (C2VSim-Fine Grid) as basis for local

model refinement

• Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) simulates GW, SW, and interactions

between SW and GW

• Develop and calibrate local model over historical base period

(1989-2015)

• Use calibrated model to evaluate future scenarios

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Numerical Modeling Approach in the Madera Subbasin

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019 15

Single Local Model (MCSim) for Madera and Chowchilla Subbasins

Total al m model ar area: a: ~1,350 sq mi (~850,000 ac) Average e element a area: 0.5 sq mi (~320 acres) Numb mber mo mode del layer ers: 7 aquifer lyrs, 3 aquitard lyrs Calib ibratio ion: 1989-2015; WLs, Streamflow

• Carved/refined from C2VSim-FG
• Single model for more

accurate/efficient simulation of interactions between the two subbasins

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Evaluate future conditions (50 years):
• Demand and Supply
• SW and GW
• Response to Plan Implementation
• Sust. Indicators (e.g., WLs, SW depletion, subsidence)
• Climate Change
• Uncertainty

Regs: Projected Water Budgets

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Develop and run predictive model scenarios:
• Estimate future conditions under varying
• Climatic/hydrologic conditions, and
• Projects and management action implementation.
• Designed to assess the effects of GSP’s projects and

management actions on

• achieving sustainability goal, and
• conditions at five-year interim milestones.
• Demonstrate sustainability goal maintained over 50-

year planning and implementation horizon.

• Evaluate uncertainty associated with scenarios.

Modeling BMP -- Groundwater Modeling Process (p. 29)

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Evaluation of Different Scenarios

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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Relative Groundwater Elevation Example Simulated Water Levels

Higher Lower

Historical Conditions Future Conditions Scenarios

2020 2040 2070

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Groundwater Models are Tools
• Help Understand Potential Outcomes of

Situations/Decisions/Actions

• Can Inform Decisions – Relative Effects; Relies on

Specified Input Parameters

• Limitations in Capabilities
• Representation of complexity/heterogeneity
• Limited calibration data/conditions/variables
• Regional vs local – local variability not captured
• Relative vs absolute – differences btwn scenarios

Role of Groundwater Modeling in GSP Development

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Demonstrating Path to Sustainability

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2040+ Maintenance

Projects Implemented Maintained Sustainability

Change in Groundwater Storage 2020

2020-2040 Plan Implementation

2040 2070

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Test Solutions w/Model

Model Decision Support Interactions

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Quantify Situation Identify Potential Solutions Review/ Refine Solutions GSAs Outline Path to Sustainability

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Questions?

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Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 7: Joint Madera Subbasin GSP Timeline and Schedule

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

• Chapters will live on

www.MaderaCountyWater.com as they are released

• A complete draft will have a 90

day comment period

• Comments will be taken

through a comment form available in August

• Comments will be able to be

emailed, mailed or dropped off

Ma Madera T Time meline

Joint GSP Chapters Public Release Date

Chapter 1 March 2019 Chapter 2 April 2019 Chapter 3 July 2019 Chapter 4 July 2019 Chapter 5 July 2019

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 8: Discussion of Public Input

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 9: Other Public Input

Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019

Item 10: Recap and outline next steps