Macro and micro economic analysis on Chinas Africa Swine Fever You - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Macro and micro economic analysis on Chinas Africa Swine Fever You - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 28, 2023 310 likes •661 views

Macro and micro economic analysis on Chinas Africa Swine Fever You Shibing The professor and doctoral supervisor of Economics and Management School of Wuhan University E-mail: 00001839@whu.edu.cn Wechat youshibing001 Ho Chi Minh City,

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Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,26-28 Nov. 2019

Macro and micro economic analysis on China’s Africa Swine Fever

The professor and doctoral supervisor of Economics and Management School of Wuhan University E-mail: 00001839@whu.edu.cn Wechat：youshibing001

You Shibing

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,26-28 Nov. 2019

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CONTENT

1 2 3

Qualitative analysis of

African Swine Fever Quantitative analysis of African Swine Fever Judgement and prediction Countermeasures and suggestions 4

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01

Qualitative analysis of African Swine Fever

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  • Lack of macro management (lack
  • f publicity, lack of technical

reserves, lack of prevention and control mechanism)

  • Macroscopic Analysis in the

perspective of regional security

  • Macroeconomic loss (economic

loss, spiritual loss, folk-custom loss)

Qualitative analysis of African Swine Fever 1.1 Macroscopic Analysis

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1.Qualitative analysis of African swine fever

1.2 Microscopic Analysis Focuses on Jingzhou city, Hubei province, China Field Research (Small and medium pig farms)

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Farm

  • wner

Slaughterhouse

  • wner
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Field Research (Small and medium slaughterhouses)

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Basic information of the field research(Pig farms)

3m 1.8m 2m

annual pig slaughter(milion)

Before ASF After ASF

large farm small and medium sized farm 3.8m 1m 1.8m 0.2m

Where's the pig?(milion)

Before ASF After ASF

Sold out Local consume

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  • A. Pig farms

 Before ASF, the annual pig slaughter was about 4.8 million (3 million for large farms, 1.8 million for small and medium-sized farms), among which about 1 million was consumed locally, and the other 3.8 million would be sold elsewhere.  After ASF, small and medium-sized farms were almost wiped out (loss 1.8 million) and large farms (loss 1 million and most of which is in cooperation with individual farmers).

Basic information of the field research

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320 80

Daily slaughter volume

Before ASF After ASF

Basic information of the field research(Slaughterhouses)

After ASF, the daily slaughter volume decreased by 3/4 while the operating cost remained almost unchanged.

  • 75%
  • B. Slaughterhouses
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02

Quantitative Analysis of African Swine Fever

Economic Evaluation method of Animal epidemic loss---- “Standard Unit Epidemic Disease”

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  • The "standard unit

epidemic disease" method is a method to evaluate the economic loss of Animal epidemic disease.

Standard Unit Epidemic Disease(SUED)

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Selects a certain representative epidemic area as the standard region Take the loss of standard area as a bench mark to estimate the other epizootic region’s loss using entropy method Evaluates the epidemic loss in standard area by setting corresponding evaluation index system Achieve the purpose

  • f rapid assessment
  • f epidemic losses in
  • ther epidemic areas.

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How does it work?

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LG=Corresponding government

funds

Government losses

Economic loss

d d

L v n = ⋅

d d

L v n = ⋅

Loss of industrial chain : Farm loss: Consumer loss:

Standard area loss assessment

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L v n = ⋅

d d

L v n = ⋅

Cost of traffic blockade : Loss of public health : Environment loss:

Total loss:

Standard area loss assessment

Social loss Environment loss

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Other epizootic region’s loss

1 2

3

4 5

Raw data matrix: Add adjustment coefficient Entropy weight dj Normalization processing Epizootic region B’s loss

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1

It can provide reference for the formulation of emergency strategy.

2

It is easier to draw up historical references

3

It has strong maneuverability, rapidity and timeliness

Characteristics of SUED

4

It is a "static" evaluation method.

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03

Judgement and prediction

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Judgement and prediction

Supply

China's pig supply can still meet basic demand, but the price of pork will continue to rise.

15 months

We estimate that it will take about 15 months for China's pig supply to return to stability.

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04

Countermeasures and suggestions

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Countermeasures and suggestions:

1.Strengthen publicity and intervention to consumers 2.It is urgent to find the method of collecting epidemic data 3.Study on the speculative behavior of manufacturers in response to Pork offline Industry chain 4.It is suggested that the Government should focus on the cultivation of large-scale farms 5.Formulation of differential epidemic Prevention and Control Strategy according to different time nodes

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THANKS