Machine Learning CS 188: Artificial Intelligence Up until now: how - PDF document

Machine Learning CS 188: Artificial Intelligence § Up until now: how to reason in a model and how to make optimal decisions Review of Machine Learning (ML) § Machine learning: how to acquire a model DISCLAIMER: It is insufficient to simply study these slides, they on the basis of data / experience are merely meant as a quick refresher of the high-level ideas covered. You need to study all materials covered in lecture, § Learning parameters (e.g. probabilities) section, assignments and projects ! § Learning structure (e.g. BN graphs) § Learning hidden concepts (e.g. clustering) Pieter Abbeel – UC Berkeley Many slides adapted from Dan Klein. Machine Learning This Set of Slides Example: Spam Filter § Applications Dear Sir. § Input: email § Output: spam/ham First, I must solicit your confidence in this § Naïve Bayes transaction, this is by virture of its nature § Setup: as being utterly confidencial and top § Get a large collection of secret. … § Main concepts example emails, each labeled “ spam ” or “ ham ” TO BE REMOVED FROM FUTURE § Note: someone has to hand § Perceptron MAILINGS, SIMPLY REPLY TO THIS label all this data! MESSAGE AND PUT "REMOVE" IN THE § Want to learn to predict SUBJECT. labels of new, future emails 99 MILLION EMAIL ADDRESSES FOR ONLY $99 § Features: The attributes used to make the ham / spam decision Ok, Iknow this is blatantly OT but I'm § Words: FREE! beginning to go insane. Had an old Dell § Text Patterns: $dd, CAPS Dimension XPS sitting in the corner and § Non-text: SenderInContacts decided to put it to use, I know it was working pre being stuck in the corner, but § … when I plugged it in, hit the power nothing happened. Example: Digit Recognition Other Classification Tasks § In classification, we predict labels y (classes) for inputs x § Input: images / pixel grids 0 § Output: a digit 0-9 § Setup: § Examples: § Get a large collection of example 1 § Spam detection (input: document, classes: spam / ham) images, each labeled with a digit § OCR (input: images, classes: characters) § Note: someone has to hand label all § Medical diagnosis (input: symptoms, classes: diseases) this data! 2 § Automatic essay grader (input: document, classes: grades) § Want to learn to predict labels of new, future digit images § Fraud detection (input: account activity, classes: fraud / no fraud) § Customer service email routing § Features: The attributes used to make the § … many more 1 digit decision § Pixels: (6,8)=ON § Classification is an important commercial technology! § Shape Patterns: NumComponents, AspectRatio, NumLoops ?? § … 1

Bayes Nets for Classification General Naïve Bayes § A general naive Bayes model: § One method of classification: § Use a probabilistic model! |Y| x |F| n § Features are observed random variables F i parameters Y § Y is the query variable § Use probabilistic inference to compute most likely Y F 1 F 2 F n n x |F| x |Y| |Y| parameters parameters § You already know how to do this inference § We only specify how each feature depends on the class § Total number of parameters is linear in n Inference for Naïve Bayes A Digit Recognizer § Goal: compute posterior over causes § Input: pixel grids § Step 1: get joint probability of causes and evidence + § Step 2: get probability of evidence § Output: a digit 0-9 § Step 3: renormalize Naïve Bayes for Digits Examples: CPTs § Simple version: § One feature F ij for each grid position <i,j> 1 0.1 1 0.01 1 0.05 § Possible feature values are on / off, based on whether intensity 2 0.1 is more or less than 0.5 in underlying image 2 0.05 2 0.01 3 0.1 § Each input maps to a feature vector, e.g. 3 0.05 3 0.90 4 0.1 4 0.30 4 0.80 5 0.1 5 0.80 5 0.90 6 0.1 6 0.90 6 0.90 § Here: lots of features, each is binary valued 7 0.1 7 0.05 7 0.25 § Naïve Bayes model: 8 0.1 8 0.60 8 0.85 9 0.1 9 0.50 9 0.60 0 0.1 0 0.80 0 0.80 § What do we need to learn? 2

Naïve Bayes for Text Example: Overfitting § Bag-of-Words Naïve Bayes: § Predict unknown class label (spam vs. ham) § Assume evidence features (e.g. the words) are independent § Warning: subtly different assumptions than before! Word at position § Generative model i, not i th word in the dictionary! § Tied distributions and bag-of-words § Usually, each variable gets its own conditional probability distribution P(F|Y) § In a bag-of-words model § Each position is identically distributed § All positions share the same conditional probs P(W|C) 2 wins!! § Why make this assumption? Example: Overfitting Generalization and Overfitting § Posteriors determined by relative probabilities (odds § Relative frequency parameters will overfit the training data! ratios): § Just because we never saw a 3 with pixel (15,15) on during training doesn ’ t mean we won ’ t see it at test time § Unlikely that every occurrence of “ minute ” is 100% spam § Unlikely that every occurrence of “ seriously ” is 100% ham § What about all the words that don ’ t occur in the training set at all? § In general, we can ’ t go around giving unseen events zero probability south-west : inf screens : inf nation : inf minute : inf § As an extreme case, imagine using the entire email as the only morally : inf guaranteed : inf feature nicely : inf $205.00 : inf § Would get the training data perfect (if deterministic labeling) extent : inf delivery : inf § Wouldn ’ t generalize at all seriously : inf signature : inf § Just making the bag-of-words assumption gives us some generalization, ... ... but isn ’ t enough What went wrong here? § To generalize better: we need to smooth or regularize the estimates Estimation: Smoothing Estimation: Smoothing § Problems with maximum likelihood estimates: § Relative frequencies are the maximum likelihood estimates § If I flip a coin once, and it ’ s heads, what ’ s the estimate for P (heads)? § What if I flip 10 times with 8 heads? § What if I flip 10M times with 8M heads? § Basic idea: § We have some prior expectation about parameters (here, the § In Bayesian statistics, we think of the parameters as just another probability of heads) random variable, with its own distribution § Given little evidence, we should skew towards our prior § Given a lot of evidence, we should listen to the data ???? 3

Estimation: Laplace Smoothing Estimation: Laplace Smoothing § Laplace ’ s estimate § Laplace ’ s estimate: H H T (extended): § Pretend you saw every outcome H H T § Pretend you saw every outcome once more than you actually did k extra times § What ’ s Laplace with k = 0? § k is the strength of the prior § Laplace for conditionals: § Can derive this as a MAP § Smooth each condition estimate with Dirichlet priors (see independently: cs281a) Estimation: Linear Interpolation Real NB: Smoothing § In practice, Laplace often performs poorly for P(X|Y): § For real classification problems, smoothing is critical § When |X| is very large § New odds ratios: § When |Y| is very large § Another option: linear interpolation § Also get P(X) from the data § Make sure the estimate of P(X|Y) isn ’ t too different from P(X) helvetica : 11.4 verdana : 28.8 seems : 10.8 Credit : 28.4 group : 10.2 ORDER : 27.2 ago : 8.4 <FONT> : 26.9 areas : 8.3 money : 26.5 § What if α is 0? 1? ... ... Do these make more sense? Tuning on Held-Out Data Important Concepts § Data: labeled instances, e.g. emails marked spam/ham § Now we ’ ve got two kinds of unknowns § Training set § Parameters: the probabilities P(Y|X), P(Y) § Held out set § Hyperparameters, like the amount of § Test set smoothing to do: k, α Training § Features: attribute-value pairs which characterize each x Data § Where to learn? § Experimentation cycle § Learn parameters from training data § Learn parameters (e.g. model probabilities) on training set § Must tune hyperparameters on different § (Tune hyperparameters on held-out set) data § Compute accuracy of test set § Why? § Very important: never “ peek ” at the test set! § For each value of the hyperparameters, § Evaluation Held-Out train and test on the held-out data § Accuracy: fraction of instances predicted correctly Data § Choose the best value and do a final test on the test data § Overfitting and generalization § Want a classifier which does well on test data Test § Overfitting: fitting the training data very closely, but not Data generalizing well 4