Ma rke t Situa tion a nd Outlook T r mar knade n i Kar lstad, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ma rke t Situa tion a nd Outlook

T r ämar knade n i Kar lstad, 2016- 11- 17

Ma g nus Nikla sso n, Swe dish F

• re st I

ndustrie s F e de ra tio n

We still ha ve a n “o ve rha ng ” o f so ftwo o d, whic h c o mb ine d with the lo w se a so n is impa c ting the ma rke ts. But the g lo b a l b a la nc e se e ms to impro ve slo wly… At the mo me nt we ha ve a (ma inly) “re dwo o d pro b le m” g e ne ra te d b y sa tura te d a nd we ake r marke t in China a nd liq uidity pro b le ms in E g ypt c o mb ine d with c o ntinue d hig h Russian supply to tho se ma rke ts! Co ntinue d inc re a se in USA-c o nsumptio n a nd ste a dy (b ut mo de ra te ) g ro wth in E uro pe is the ke y to b e tte r time s!

L a st ye a rs me ssa g e : We we re wo rrie d a b o ut China

a nd E g ypt a nd b e lie ve d the US a nd E uro pe a n ma rke t wa s the ke y.

We still ha ve a n “o ve rha ng ” o f so ftwo o d, whic h c o mb ine d with the lo w se a so n is impa c ting the ma rke ts. But the g lo b a l b a la nc e se e ms to impro ve slo wly… At the mo me nt we ha ve a (ma inly) “re dwo o d pro b le m” g e ne ra te d b y sa tura te d a nd we ake r marke t in China a nd liq uidity pro b le ms in E g ypt c o mb ine d with c o ntinue d hig h Russian supply to tho se ma rke ts! Co ntinue d inc re a se in USA-c o nsumptio n a nd ste a dy (b ut mo de ra te ) g ro wth in E uro pe is the ke y to b e tte r time s!

Only pa rtly c orre c t!

Chine se sur pr ise !

2016 the g lo b a l so ftwo o d tra de will re a c h a re c o rd hig h le ve l.

• ns pe r mo nth, tho usa nd

• L
• ng te r

m: F r e e tr ade in ge ne r al?

• E

xpansive financ ial politic s?

• Mor

e spe c ific ally and shor t te r m: Canada – U.S. – softwood tr ade ?

• Shor

t (and long) te r m: Cur r e nc y de ve lopme nt?

T his ye ar : Whe r e ar e we going?

Initia l move s on the c ur r e nc y ma r ke ts: USD up a nd E ur

• down

T re nds in So ftwo o d T ra de

T he b e st pe rfo rming

impor t mar ke ts 2012-

2016? I n E uro pe a nd g lo b a lly.

T hir d plac e : T ur ke y

• Y. Imports of softwood pe r month. Se asonally adjuste d.

• T

ur ke y showe d good de ve lopme nt up to 2015

• About +350 000 m3 in

impor t inc r e ase

• Ukr

aine has take n it all…

Se c ond plac e : Ge r many

• Ge r

many has showe d stable gains thr

• ughout the

r e c ove r y

• Be lar

us and Russia inc r e ase s, toghe the r bigge r than Swe de n

F ir st pla c e : UK

Swe de n ha s a lmo st o ne third o f the to ta l ma rke t.

• USA has gr
• wn mor

e than China

• Good pr

ic e s in SE K…

Globally: U.S. wins

• USA. Imports of softwood pe r month. Se asonally adjuste d.

• 2,5

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 SE K / 1.000 b df USD / 1.000 b df

L ist pric e (Ra ndo m L e ng ths) SPF 2x4 We ste rn std&b tr i USD a nd SE K up to no ve mb e r 2016

USD / 1 000 b df SE K / 1.000 b df

Supply

Sma ll produc tion inc re a se in E urope

T he inc re a se in supply is b e lie ve d to b e lo we r tha n the inc re a se in de ma nd. Go o d fo r the b a la nc e !

Pr

• duktion

2015 Pr

• gnos

(E OS) 2016

Ge rma ny

• 2%

+5% Swe de n +2%

• 1% (-2%)

F inla nd

• 3%

+2% (+6%) Austria +4% +1%

E ur

• pe (14

c ontr ie s*) +0,1% +1,8%

K ä lla : E OS o kto b e r 2016

5 10 15 20 25 30

• Milj. m3

T yskla nd Öste rrike F inla nd Sve rig e

*E xc l. Russia

F inland: Ne w situation afte r te n ye ar s with de c r e asing pr

• duc tion.

Ne w pulp pro duc tio n de ma nds pulpwo o d, whic h drive s sa wlo g supply a s we ll a nd thus so ftwo o d pro duc tio n. Simila r situa tio n in Swe de n…

F innish De ma nd o f Ro undwo o d

SW lo g s (a c tua l/ fo re c a st) Pulpwo o d (a c tua l/ fo re c a st) SW lo g s (o ld fo re c a st, Me tla 2008) Pulpwo o d (o ld fo re c a st, Me tla 2008)

Ac tua l Ne w a nd c o nfirme d

• Mill. m3 pe r mo nth.

Russian e xpor ts has inc r e ase d he avily:

Ve ry c o mpe titive a nd to da y pro fita b le . But ho w muc h c a n the pro duc tio n inc re a se in the sho rt a nd me dium te rm? Ava ila b ility o f lo g s is the c ha lle ng e !

Cha ng e : ja n-a ug 16 / ja n-a ug 15: +6% K ä lla: Sva nDa ta K ä lla: Pyra b e lisk *Russia s’ to ta l so ftwo o d pro duc tio n 2016 is e stima te d to a b o ut 33 millio n m3. Cha ng e : ja n-a ug 16 / ja n-a ug 15: +18%

How muc h c an the Russian e xpor t inc r e ase ?

T he Rub le ha s g a ine d so me stre ng th a g a in a nd the do me stic ma rke t mig ht ha ve b o tto me d. T hus, the c o mpe titive ne ss is no lo ng e r inc re a sing .

Ha rdly c ontinue with the sa me pa c e a s during this first ha lf ye a r!

Russia n e xpo rts to China inc re a se d 2.8 millio n m 3 up to Aug ust, c o mpa re d with 2015 (+48%).

Swe dish Ma in Ma rke ts

Swe de n: T he impor tanc e of ME NA is de c r e asing and E ast Aisa inc r e asing.

L a st ye a r we b e lie ve d the impo rta nc e o f Ove rse a s ma rke ts to de c re a se so me wha t… Co rre c t whe n it c a me to Afric a a nd Middle E a st But the Stre ng th in Chine se (a nd to so me e xte nt o the r E a ste rn Asia n ma rke ts) we re unde re stima te d

K ä lla : Sko g sind ustrie rna

T he ME NA ma rke ts a s sha re o f to ta l Swe d ish e xpo rts. E a st Asia a s sha re o f to ta l Swe d ish e xpo rts.

China : L imite d dome stic supply a nd polic ie s on c onstruc tion bring s a hug e pote ntia l

T he ne w Chine se po lic y b ring s a sub sta ntia l po te ntia l in wo o d

c o nstruc tio n

• ”Pre fa b ric a te d b uilding in ste e l

a nd wo o d pre fe rre d.”

• ”T

a rg e t to 2025 tha t pre fa b ric a te d b uilding ha s a 30% ma rke t sha re ”

• ”Wo o d b uilding to da y 0,07%

sha re . 1% wo uld me a n a no the r 5 millio n m3 so ftwo o d pe r ye a r.”

If this be c ome s re a l, it me a ns a n inc re a se in import with up to 3 million m3 e ac h ye ar up to 2020!

T he dome stic mar ke t the be st of all Swe dish mar ke ts!

De live rie s ha ve inc re a se d with mo re tha n 1 millio n m3 pe r ye a r.

K ä lla : Sko g sind ustrie rna

Swe dish pr

• duc tion down 300- 400 000 m3 this ye ar

.

Ma inly re dwo o d in So uthe rn a nd No rthe rn Swe de n, b ut a lso white wo o d will pro b a b ly de c re a se ma rg ina lly.

Pr ic e s up, pr

• duc tion down!

White wood stoc ks low, r e dwood stoc ks nor ma l a nd fa lling .

35 40 45 50 55 ja n fe b ma r a pr ma j jun jul a ug se p

• kt

no v de c ja n fe b ma r a pr ma j jun jul a ug se p

• kt

2015 2016

Re d wo o d sto c ks in d a ys o f pro d uc tio n

10 ye a rs a ve ra g e Curre nt sto c k 35 40 45 50 55 ja n fe b ma r a pr ma j jun jul a ug se p

• kt

no v de c ja n fe b ma r a pr ma j jun jul a ug se p

• kt

2015 2016

White wo o d sto c ks in d a ys o f po rd uc tio n

10 ye a rs a ve ra g e Curre nt sto c k

Cle ar pr ic e c yc le s with de c r e asing diffe r e nc e be twe e n highs and lows.

Are we e nte ring a le ss vo la tile ma rke t?

2016- 11-25

Swe dish E xpo rt Pric e Inde x. Up to se p 2016.

L

• g pric e s ha ve be e n re la tive ly sta ble de spite

we a ke r softwood ma rke t…

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Inde x

T imme rpris (le ve ra nsvirke , he la la nde t) T räva ruprise r (E XPI )

• 2016 the ma rke t c o nsume d

the ”o ve rha ng ” o f so ftwo o d.

• At the sa me time

c onsumption inc r e ase s ste adily: Impr

• ve d balanc e.
• Re dwood ma rke ts a re still a

q ue stio n ma rk, b ut the

balanc e / stoc k situation muc h be tte r than last ye ar.

• Be tte r sta rting po int fo r 2017

tha n 2016.

Some big que stions

• Russia n e xpo rts?
• Chine se c o nsumptio n?
• Chine se supply?
• Sc a ndina via n supply?
• T

he NA lumb e r tra de dispute

Summar y