LUM-ECOS Land Use Modelling for ECOSystem analysis Davide - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LUM-ECOS

Land Use Modelling for ECOSystem analysis Davide Martinetti

Ecodeveloppement Unit - INRA PACA - Avignon

Barcelona - Octuber 12, 2015

Objective of the project Understanding the link between land-use and the presence/dissemination of micro-organisms in the atmosphere.

Facts:

◮ Many types of microorganisms (MO) circulate in the

atmosphere via clouds and precipitation;

◮ Land use is responsible of the concentration and vertical

flux of MO’s at ground level;

◮ Airborne MO can be pathogens and can have an impact on

the climate via bio-precipitation.

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Land use effects on MO concentration and flux

The land cover is key for quantifying the concentration and ver- tical flux of MO in the atmosphere

◮ presence of tree canopies

◮ crop ◮ forest ◮ grassland ◮ etc.

◮ physical characteristics

◮ altitude ◮ exposition ◮ humidity and presence of water/rain ◮ temperature/seasonality ◮ etc.

◮ effects derived from agricultural practices

◮ irrigation ◮ pesticides ◮ etc. 3 / 10

Land Use Modelling - LUM

Land Use modelling is used in our project to forecast land use changes in the middle term (10-15 years) in the PACA region.

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LUM in PACA

We have access to a huge database (>5 million observations) at parcel-level scale, with socio-economic, geographical and agri- cultural explanatory variables. The LUM aims to explain the land use in each parcel according to the observed features, but also considers potential spatial spillover effects in neighbouring parcels. For this part we are using a Spatial Autoregressive Probit Model.

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LUM - Spatial Dependence

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ECOS - Diffusion of MO and their potential effect

The objective is to predict the dissemination patterns of airborne MO and to study their impact on plant health and climate.

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Estimated MO concentration1

Ecosystem Best estimate Low estimate High estimate coastal 7.6 × 104 2.3 × 104 1.3 × 105 crops 1.1 × 105 4.1 × 104 1.7 × 105 deserts 1.6 × 102 3.8 × 104 forests 5.6 × 104 3.3 × 104 8.8 × 104 grasslands 1.1 × 105 2.5 × 104 8.4 × 105 land ice 1 × 104 seas 1 × 104 1 × 101 8 × 104 shrubs 3.5 × 105 1.2 × 104 8.4 × 105 tundra 1.2 × 104 5.6 × 104 wetlands 9 × 104 2 × 104 8 × 105 urban 6.5 × 105 4.4 × 105 9.2 × 105 urban park 1.2 × 105 4.8 × 104 1.9 × 105

Table: Estimates of total mean bacterial concentration in near-surface air of various ecosystem types (units per m−3)

1Burrows et al. Bacteria in the global atmosphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys.

2009.

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ECOS - Effect of MO in the Ecosystem

By studying the specific case of the bacteria Pseudomonas Sy- ringae, we will try to assess:

◮ the potential diffusion of pests via atmospheric

transportation

◮ the effect on precipitation and climate

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Conclusions

For more details, contact me during the poster session! Thank you for you attention.

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