LOAD ISSUES FOR MONAS 20/2014 LARS M. SVENDSEN AARHUS DCE DANISH - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LARS M. SVENDSEN

AARHUS UNIVERSITY APRIL 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

LOAD ISSUES FOR MONAS 20/2014

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

LOAD TOPICS COVERED IN THE PRESENTATION

› Latest LOAD meeting (7/2014) 12.14 March 2014 › Core Pressure Nutrient Input Indicator › Follow up new country-wise nutrient reductions (Min Meeting 2013) › Contribution to MORE project and other LOAD7/2014 issues › Conclusions atmospheric session during HELCOM LOAD7/2014 › Project under LOAD: ›

PLC-5.5: two reports › PLC6: statistical methods, laboratory intercalibration, new parameters, transboundary project, PLC guidelines, monitoring, reporting › PLUS: organization, data model, QA-procedure, cooperation with OSPAR (RID database)

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CORE PRESSURE INDICATOR ON INPUTS AND FOLLOW UP ON REVISED MAI AND NEW CART

› A) To follow-up the revised country-wise nutrient reduction scheme decided at the 2013 Copenhagen Ministerial Meeting › B) Develop of a Core Pressure Indicator on nutrient inputs

› is two different issues and we need to handled them separately. › When finalizing the new CART during the last days and hours before the Ministerial Meeting the principles for developing and quantifying CARTS was changed making CART’s specific to net figures for each

• CP. Further specific nutrient input reduction were assumed on water-

and airborne transboundary inputs › The new CARTS therefore don’t relates directly to inputs to the Baltic Sea, which must be reflected in following up fulfilling new CARTS

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The “Country-basin” catchments

• Inputs are primarily assigned

to the country doing the monitoring (owning the river mouth)

• Major rivers carry nutrients

from upstream countries (transboundary inputs) Reduction requirements are shared with the countries upstream

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

FOLLOW UP FULFILMENT OF CART

› The aim and requirement is to follow up Contracting Parties’ national nutrient reduction commitments (CART) but also the fulfilment of the assumed reductions in transboundary air- and waterborne inputs. This implies:

Follow up each CP net input contribution: the target is national CART. CP have the possibility to weight reductions on water- and airborne inputs › Follow up on the transboundary atmospheric deposition from other countries and sources: the targets is the assumed reductions › Follow up on net transboundary waterborne inputs (retention deducted)from upstream countries: the target is assumed reductions › Focus on net input per CP, other countries/sources (transboundary) › Use of normalized input data, smoothing out weather impact › Only indirect link between national CART and inputs to the sea

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CORE PRESSURE INDICATOR ON INPUTS

› Core Pressure Nutrient Input Indicator aims to provide information of the total actual water + airborne inputs entering to the Baltic Sea sub-basins – these are the ecological relevant inputs from individual years: what the Baltic Sea “feels” of input pressures. This implies: › Compile the actual atmospheric inputs to Baltic Sea sub-basins

› Compile the actual waterborne inputs per Baltic Sea sub-basin › No separation between inputs from CP’s on other sources (no division in transboundary inputs) › The targets – GES? - are maximum allowable input per sub-basin › The indicator focus on actual inputs per sub-basin › To follow trends in nutrient pressure it is although necessary to use normalized water and airborne input per Baltic Sea sub-basin

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 7

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 8

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 9

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 10

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

ASSUMED TRANSBOUNDARY REDUCTIONS

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 12

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY 13

AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CORE PRESSURE INDICATOR ON INPUTS

› - see doc 3/6 LOAD 7/2014 – rev.

› Plan for finalizing Core Pressure nutrient input indicator: ›

ready in spring 2015 for HELCOM Commission Meeting › LOAD Core Group will have two days meeting preparing a first draft of the Core Pressure Nutrient Input Indicator 20-21 May 2014 › After agreeing of the scientific part allow time for making the indicator applicable for decision makers › Draft to be discussed at the next INPUT/PRESSURE Working Group meeting in “October 2014”, allowing time for LOAD Core, chairman and HELCOM Secretariat to finalize the indicator for adoption › It might challenging fully to follow the proposed template for a Core Indicator e.g. GES boundaries – and if all about concept, monitoring, methodology, data requirement, confidence must be described in details

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

FOLLOW UP NEW CART

› A popular MAI-CART report was elaborated for the 2013 Copenhagen Ministerial Meeting (background document): › = doc 3/1 for HELCOM LOAD7/2014 › BNI Scientific background report on developing MAI and CART will be circulated to LOAD and MONAS contacts in June 2014 for commenting and feedback. › The report will be published as a BNI report – and without HOD endorsement

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

FOLLOW UP NEW CART

› Elaborate a CART follow-up system might require a project (e.g. EU Strategy Baltic Sea Region -EUSBSR) or a working group on: › Developing the follow-up system on all country and sources

› How to calculate surface water retention and quantify transboundary inputs › How to take into account if retention changes over time on the allocated reduction requirements between CP’s and others

› How often to make a CART follow-up report – annual changes might be rather small (maybe every 3 year – ask GEAR) › 1th draft report: 1994-2010 data, later in 2014 include 2011 and 2012, and in late 2016 include 2013 and 2014 data (PLC-6) › LOAD CORE will discuss draft contents during meeting 20-21 May 14

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

FOLLOW UP NEW CART

›- provisional contents follow-up report on reduction targets – doc 3-

7 rev. For HELOCM LOAD 7/2014

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

MONITORING REQUIREMENTS TO FOLLOW-UP CART FULFILLMENT

› Reporting of annual nutrient load (as minimum TN and TP) and flow for all transboundary rivers which are included in the calculation of waterborne transboundary inputs at the mouth and at the borders › Retention in catchment receiving transboundary inputs (if new results can be provided) › Quantification of loads and river flow at the border by using methodologies as described in PLC6 guidelines › Receiving CP responsible for the reporting and coordination with upstream country › Reporting deadline: 31.10?

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CONTRIBUTION TO HELCM MORE

› Four templates have been filled in: › Atmospheric inputs of nutrients › Atmospheric inputs of contaminants › Waterborne inputs of nutrients › Waterborne inputs of contaminants › Level of details in the templates should be discussed, as e.g. for waterborne inputs LOAD has already prepared detailed overviews: › - see document 4/1 HELCOM PLC 6 5/2014 › PLC 6 meeting 2-4 June 2014 can check the information

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CONCLUSIONS ATMOSPHERIC SESSION

› HELCOM LOAD 7/2014 had a 4-5 hours session on atmospheric inputs as decided by HELCOM MONAS 19/2013 › Main topics:

› EMEP annual reporting and assessment products › Monitoring of atmospheric deposition › Importance of atmospheric deposition compared with total input › Estimates of emissions › Estimates of atmospheric deposition and scenarios predicting future deposition after implementing Gothenburg Protocol and NECII

› …. some main conclusions

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CONCLUSIONS ATMOSPHERIC SESSION

› Overall EMEP provides necessary reports and assessments. Latest report published Jan. 2014. EMEP will provide annually normalized deposition to each sub-basin to allow for follow up MAI and CART. › Monitoring station: distribution and monitoring of parameters are not always optimal/representative, and some challenges with data QA – especially for HZS. More stations on the Baltic Sea advisable › Make thoroughly analysis of monitoring deposition data as a basis for recommending optimization and possible expanding monitoring › Atmospheric deposition is important pathway for PAH, PCB’s, PBDE and HBCDD which deserves assessments, when emission data is

• appropriated. Secretariat was asked too investigated possibility to

include ∑PAH16 and ∑PCB9 (rotated cycle two/three years) by 2015 › Deposition 50*50 km but 7*7 km possible, if emission follows (2017)

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

CONCLUSIONS ATMOSPHERIC SESSION

› When Gothenburg protocol are fully implemented EMEP predict this will reduced atm. deposition to Baltic Sea with about 20 % (between 18-23 % to sub-basins) in 2020 compared within 2005 › Germany pointed out that is assumed that emissions are evenly reduced even and there is a need of maximizing benefits implementing the protocol. How to ensure that measures implemented in a country will benefit Baltic Sea as assumed – e.g. what if Germany focus their measure in the southern part › Need of mechanism to guaranty implementation of measures. Reducing emissions should be coordinated –maybe via WFD management plan, or regional planning, or via common EU NECII Directive – the transboundary atm. inputs being very important (16 % of total nitrogen reduction to the Baltic Sea is assumed from non- HELCOM CP’s and 6 % from ship-emission).

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

MISCELLANEOUS TOPICS

› Transboundary workshop (back to back with LOAD7/2014 held in Riga, Latvia 11 March 2014) › Results presented from two sampling rounds at the border of the three countries (Latvia – Belarus, Lithuania – Belarus) and at the national monitoring points near to the mouth of Nemunas and Daugava (+ at the rivers mouths of Lielupe, Venta, Barta, and Gauja in Latvia). More (much) monitoring and modelling needed! › Phosphorgypsum stacks for fertilizer production facilities – status on provisional results on Polish-Finnish project on the potential leaching from 2 sites in Poland. Results will be present at the LAND meeting in May (Gdansk). In future to make comprehensive assessments. › New INPUT/PRESSURE group will address efficiency of measures to reduce losses from various industries

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLC-5.5 PROJECT

› Review of the Fifth Baltic Sea Pollution for the 2013 Ministerial Meeting published November 2013 – an the data set is available › http://www.helcom.fi/helcom-at-work/projects/plc-5-5 › This report was not original a part of the PLC-5.5 project › Finalizing main PLC-5.5 report (no meetings since MONAS 19):

› Include many more details pr. CP and sub-basins (inputs/trends) › Will include trends 1994-2010 and changes from reference period (1997-2003) to 2008-2010 › Will not include follow-up on revised MAI and new CARTS › Mainly tables and figures, and a introduction and conclusion › PLC-5.5 workshop 22-23 May 2014 prepare final draft that will be circulate among LOAD and MONAS contacts, and report send to HOD-46 2014.

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLC6 PROJECT (+ PLC REPORTING)

› Statistical methodology report publish autumn 2013 + software › Laboratory intercalibration report published in 2013. Revised version available February 2014 – include some missing data from one lab. › http://www.helcom.fi/helcom-at-work/projects/plc-6 › PLC-reporting (important for follow-up MAI/CART, CORE indicator)

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Latvia: all data 2009-2012 not reported – but the meeting in Riga clarified that data are available and will be provided in April 2014 › Data unmonitored areas missing from Russia as is all Pregolya data › Some follow up/verification, and correction on 2012 data needed, and some clarifying questions to be solved › Otherwise TN, TP monitored, unmonitored, direct + run off data from 2011 + 2012 should be ready in June for CORE further assessments – we need to missing data delivered during April 2014 – and a final dataset 1June 2014

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

DEADLINES FOR FUTURE PLC DATA

› Report according to the recommendation including transboundary data (by 31.10) and retention by 31.12 › Data manager at the latest by 16.11 reports on missing data and by 15.12 › Data manager 3 months for initial follow-up reminding on missing reporting etc. (until 31.01) › Data manager 2 month for QA and follow-up and make PL-dataset (31.03) › Load Core Group/indicator preparation group: 1,5months assessing data, filing in data gaps, follow-up on suspicious data, and approval by CP’s (16.05). Status on data completeness and QA by end of May › Flow-normalization and trends analysis by mid June › Draft indictor/follow-up report CART early September

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLC6 PROJECT: PRIORITY SUBSTANCES

› Evaluation of monitoring new parameters under PLC (waterborne)

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLC6 PROJECT - GUIDELINES

› PLC 6 guidelines in good progress (last meeting late February 2014) – still to finalize:

› Source oriented approach including quantifying diffuse sources › Transboundary inputs and retention: methodology used to quantify these inputs, retention, which rivers should be included and other necessary information needed for in relation to follow up national CART/transboundary net inputs to the Baltic Sea › Reporting formats (also pending HELCOM PLUS project)

› Next PLC6 workshop 2-4 June 2014. Finalize guidelines and forward them for adoption at HOD 46-2014 – but parts of reporting format may be left open

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLC6 PROJECT -REPORTING

› Germany and Poland uses 2012 as reporting year for PLC6 - other CP’s 2014 › Germany and Poland have reported their annual 2012 late 2013, and the source apportionment data will be reported later in 2014 › Other CP’s should report annual 2014 data by 31.10.2015, and remaining data by the end of 2015 using old PLC reporting formats › It is very important to fulfill these deadlines as GEAR has asked for main PLC6 result/report by the end of 2016 – ½ year before the

• riginal agreed deadline

› Source apportionment and some statistical analysis will no be ready before second quarter of 2017.

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLUS PROJECT

› SYKE have withdrawn their offer to host to new PLC database, and to develop the web-interface including their in-kind contribution to these activities › HOD looked for new host – and the offer from BNI, Stockholm to host and make develop the web-interface was accepted by HELCOM 2014 – BNI offers a more long term commitment and will provide in- kind man-power resources. SYKE continues as PLC data manager › Some financing is missing (Nordic Council turn down an application) – CP’s are asked to consider to provide financial support. Might be necessary to reduced part of the activities e.g. on parts of the web- interface – but most relevant parts will be developed › The PLUS project is a bit delayed, but it is still expected that the new reporting formats and QA procedures/facilities will be ready fn time for PLC6 data reporting

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AARHUS UNIVERSITY HELCOM MONAS 20/2014 Lars M. Svendsen April 2014 DCE – DANISH CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

STATUS PLUS PROJECT

› Final comments on data model and QA procedures have been provided to the project team. SYKE will finalize the data model, specification of QA requirements and transferring data from old to new PLC database – BNI included in project group › BNI visiting DCE, AU this week to discuss and get input on how QA could be implemented in new PLC database › OSPAR RID-DB modernization: Exchange of documents and specification, a coupe of HELCOM LOAD members involved in both the OSPAR and HELCOM database projects › OSPAR HASEC didn’t support the development of a new OSPAR RID database at this stage, but only make some minor improvements. OSPAR INPUT may look into further possibility to use new PLC DB › Next PLUS meeting: 9-10 September 2014 on reporting formats, QA-and wen-interface specifications

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