Linking Fiscal and Debt Management Policies The Role of Debt - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Linking Fiscal and Debt Management Policies – The Role of Debt Sustainability Analysis Seán Nolan

International Monetary Fund December 3, 2014

Deb Sustainability Analyses

 The Tool Box

 Handling Debt Portfolio Risks  Handling Macro-Fiscal Shocks

 Handling Contingent Liabilities  Role in Fund –Supported programs

• I. Debt Sustainability Analysis

The Tool Box

DSAs: Origins and Lessons

 LIC DSF was introduced in 2005: most recent review in 2012, joint Bank-Fund product  MAC DSA was introduced in 2002, major refinements in 2011  MAC DSA 2011 review identified several areas for improvement, including:

• Realism of baseline assumptions
• Risks associated with the debt profile
• Analysis of macro-fiscal risks (including contingent

liabilities)

Previously, for MACs the focus was mainly on debt trajectories

What’s missing

• Debt profile risks
• Contingent liability risks
• ……

Revised DSA for MACs

 Public debt vulnerabilities are associated not only with the level of debt, but with its profile  Debt portfolio characteristics—maturity, currency composition, and the creditor base—have received much attention in the analysis of public debt distress  The Fund’s MAC DSA brings these (and other) elements together in its new risk-based approach to public debt sustainability  The DSA assesses risks from the debt profile by comparing a set of indicators to early warning benchmarks

Public DSAs and Debt Profile

Revised DSA for MACs MAC DSA: Debt Profile Benchmarks

example Upper early warning Lower early warning

(Indicators vis-à-vis risk assessment benchmarks, in 2013)

Debt Profile Vulnerabilities

20 60 13%

1 2

200 600 273 bp

1 2

5 15 51%

1 2

0.5 1

• 1.3%

1 2

Bond spread External Financing Requirement Annual Change in Short-Term Public Debt Public Debt in Foreign Currency

(in basis points) 4/ (in percent of GDP) 5/ (in percent of total) (in percent of total) 15 45 29%

1 2

Public Debt Held by Non-Residents

(in percent of total)

Revised DSA for MACs MAC DSA: Key Outputs

Example Public DSA Risk Assessment

Real Interest Rate Shock External Financing Requirements Real GDP Growth Shock

Heat Map Evolution of Predictive Densities of Gross Nominal Public Debt

(in percent of GDP) Debt profile 3/ Gross financing needs 2/ Debt level 1/ Real GDP Growth Shock Primary Balance Shock Change in the Share of Short- Term Debt Foreign Currency Debt Public Debt Held by Non- Residents Primary Balance Shock Real Interest Rate Shock Exchange Rate Shock Contingent Liability Shock Exchange Rate Shock Contingent Liability shock Market Perception 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10th-25th 25th-75th 75th-90th Percentiles: Baseline Symmetric Distribution 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Restricted (Asymmetric) Distribution

no restriction on the growth rate shock no restriction on the interest rate shock 0 is the max positive pb shock (percent GDP) no restriction on the exchange rate shock Restrictions on upside shocks:

Revised DSA for MACs LIC External DSA

Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2023. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a Exports shock 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Baseline Most extreme shock 1/ Threshold Historical scenario

f.Debt service-to-revenue ratio

• 15
• 5

5 15 25 35 45

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Rate of Debt Accumulation Grant-equivalent financing (% of GDP) Grant element of new borrowing (% right scale)

• a. Debt Accumulation

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

b.PV of debt-to GDP ratio

50 100 150 200 250 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

c.PV of debt-to-exports ratio

50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

d.PV of debt-to-revenue ratio

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

e.Debt service-to-exports ratio

Revised DSA for MACs

 For most LICs, debt portfolio management is “passive” as debt managers have less influence over the design of the debt portfolio composition than in MACs  But changing financing landscape and more market access is highlighting the relevance of debt portfolio risks  Improving public debt management capacity in LICs remains a priority  The Joint IMF/WB Debt Management Facility (DMF II) will make important contributions in this regard

DSA for LICs: Times are a changing for some

• II. Contingent Liability Risks

Revised DSA for MACs

 Risks from contingent liabilities should inform both fiscal and debt management policies and strategies  Analysis of the risks posed by CLs has become important for the assessment of public debt sustainability  Assessment of banking sector CL is now an integral part of the MAC DSA  But depending on country circumstances, other types of contingent liability risks may be also relevant

Contingent Liability (CL) Risks in DSAs

Revised DSA for MACs Contingent Liability (CL) Risks in MAC DSAs

Revised DSA for MACs

 In LICs large public investments needs cannot all be financed by public debt without jeopardizing debt sustainability  Public private partnership (PPP) arrangements offer burden sharing with the private sector, but also exposes public sector to fiscal risks

Contingent Liability (CL) Risks in LICs

• III. DSAs in Fund-Supported Programs

Revised DSA for MACs

 In Fund programs debt conditionality is generally expected when a country has significant debt vulnerabilities  For countries using the LIC DSF, debt vulnerabilities is informed by the assessed risk of external debt distress or, where relevant, by the assessed overall risk of debt distress  For countries using the MAC DSA debt vulnerabilities is assessed by the set of standard indicators in the MAC DSA

DSAs in Fund-Supported Programs

Useful Links on IMF’s Website

 Guidance Note on DSA for Market-Access Countries: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf  Guidance Note on the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/110513.pdf  IMF’s online DSAx course: http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=333511 5563001 https://www.edx.org/course/debt-sustainability-analysis- imfx-dsax#.VH3WC4UhAyp

Thank you