Lif Life of man: solitary, poor, f li nasty, brutish, and short - PDF document

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 The fight for America's Future: The fight for America's Future: What kind of an "operating system”? Lif Life of man: solitary, poor, f li nasty, brutish, and short Thomas Hobbes—Leviathan--1651 1

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 What Happened? 1 E 1. Energy—steam t 2. 1800’s liberal ideas of government (Hayek, individual responsibility) Integrity of private property, Freedom 3. Innovation, compounding science 2

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 The US is being challenged technically, The US is being challenged technically, economically, demographically and economically, demographically and politically like never before in history politically like never before in history The outcome is far from certain The outcome is far from certain The limits to Growth The limits to Growth—Club of Rome Report Club of Rome Report Moore’s law: productivity-- Moore’s law: productivity --more of more of everything for everyone, everywhere everything for everyone, everywhere thi thi f f h h 3

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 The implications of Moore’s law: can be The implications of Moore’s law: can be More of everything for everyone, everywhere More of everything for everyone, everywhere No No limits to growth limits to growth— —unlimited wealth, unlimited wealth, freedom = free enterprise / free innovation freedom = free enterprise / free innovation Ubiquitous information and innovation Ubiquitous information and innovation De De- -massification massification of productivity of productivity Individual freedom operating system Individual freedom operating system vs. collectivism/authoritarianism vs. collectivism/authoritarianism The leverage of terror The leverage of terror $1,000,000,000,00 $1,000,000,000,00 0 0 ÷ $200,000 $200,000 =5,000,000 to 1 =5,000,000 to 1 =5 000 000 to 1 =5 000 000 to 1 (before (before WMD’s WMD’s) ) The leverage The leverage The leverage The leverage of terror of terror of terror of terror 4

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 How Armageddon can How Armageddon can happen How Armageddon can How Armageddon can happen happen happen � High altitude nuclear blast � High altitude nuclear blast EMP effects � High altitude nuclear blast � High altitude nuclear blast EMP effects � High altitude nuclear blast � High altitude nuclear blast High altitude nuclear blast EMP High altitude nuclear blast EMP High altitude nuclear blast EMP High altitude nuclear blast EMP EMP effects EMP effects EMP effects EMP effects effects effects effects effects � Cruise � Cruise � Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships missile attacks from tramp ships missile attacks from tramp ships � Nukes � Nukes in shipping containers � Nukes Nukes in shipping containers Nukes in shipping containers in shipping containers in shipping containers � Biological � Biological Biological-- Biological-- --viral --viral viral effects viral effects The leverage of terror The leverage of terror— — what do we do about it? what do we do about it? what do we do about it? what do we do about it? • No state sponsors of terrorism No state sponsors of terrorism • No moral equivalence No moral equivalence • Preemption may be necessary Preemption may be necessary 5

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 The Clash of Civilizations The Clash of Civilizations for the world’s operating system (Herbert Meyer) for the world’s operating system (Herbert Meyer) Individualism Individualism Collectivism* Collectivism* � Pluralism/cons � Pluralism/cons � Pl � Pl li li / / � A th � A th � Authoritarian � Authoritarian it it i i ent ent Elites Elites � Freedom � Freedom � Governance by � Governance by force force � Free Enterprise � Free Enterprise � Feudalism � Feudalism � Feudalism � Feudalism � P � Property rights � P � Property rights t t i ht i ht � Status Quo � Status Quo � Progress � Progress *Fascism, Socialism, Islamism, Shariah, Jihad How We can Lose How We can Lose 1. A less productive/competitive economy 1. A less productive/competitive economy 2. Fail to develop economical energy 2. Fail to develop economical energy 3. Well financed enemy 3. Well financed enemy 4. Less effective weapons 4. Less effective weapons 5. Acute asymmetrical factors 5. Acute asymmetrical factors 6. Dedicated, fanatical enemy 6. Dedicated, fanatical enemy 7. Entropy of Western Civilization 7. Entropy of Western Civilization 8. Give up—”better red than dead” 8. Give up—”better red than dead” 6

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 How the world can win 1. Unlimited energy 1. Unlimited energy 2. Science/Innovation 2. Science/Innovation 2. Science/Innovation 2. Science/Innovation 3. Free Enterprise 3. Free Enterprise 4. US exceptionalism 4. US exceptionalism 5. Understand Shariah and Jihad 5. Understand Shariah and Jihad 6. Avoid the zero sum game 6. Avoid the zero sum game g g 7. Teach the importance of 7. Teach the importance of productivity productivity World energy requirements represent major problems and large opportunities Global Energy Consumption EIA and Harvard Projections r rillion BOE per year Quad BTU per year At the projected At the projected consumption, today’s consumption, today’s known reserves will be known reserves will be ~ 3.5 x depleted by 2080 depleted by 2080 ~ 3 5 x 3.5 x Q T General Atomics Proprietary Data 14 7

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 After 60 years, there is a better way After 60 years, there is a better way for for N Nuclear uclear T Technology echnology EM 2 represents a major breakthrough General Atomics Proprietary Data Known Energy Reserves are not Inexhaustible World Reserves Trillions of Barrels Equivalent 4 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 4.2 2 1.5 1 1 1.7 1.5 0.35 0.5 0 Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR General Atomics Proprietary Data 16 8

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 Known Energy Reserves are Not Inexhaustible World Reserves Trillions of Barrels Equivalent 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 20 10 4.2 1.7 1.5 0.35 0 Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR General Atomics Proprietary Data 17 Using EM 2 , World’s Uranium has 61 times More Energy Than all World’s Known Oil Reserves* World Reserves Trillions of Barrels Equivalent 100 92 90 80 EM 2 can increase uranium resources 70 value from $28 trillion to $7,300 trillion 60 50 (262 times more-- oil equivalency value 40 @ $80/bbl ) 30 20 10 10 4.2 1.7 1.5 0.35 0 Uranium-EM 2 Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR *Potential if >99% energy extracted from fuel General Atomics Proprietary Data 18 9

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 EM 2 Will Change US Energy Reserves Dramatically US Energy Reserves (Trillion Bbls Oil Energy Equivalent) Depleted uranium/ Depleted uranium/ 12 used nuclear inventories used nuclear inventories US Depleted 9.78 10 Uranium US Used Nuclear Fuel Equivalent to US Equivalent to US 8 oil requirements oil requirements for 1400 years for 1400 years 6 9.0 Tbbl Depleted Uranium 0.8 Tbbl Used Nuclear Fuel 40 Saudi Arabias 40 Saudi Arabias 4 2 2 1 15 1.15 0.05 0.02 0 Natural Oil Coal UNF/DU Gas Energy General Atomics Proprietary Data 19 20 10

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 Fishmeal Alone Cannot Meet Aquaculture Demand 250� Projected� Growth� in� Aquaculture� 200� Aquaculture� Capture� Fish� Tonnes� Fishmeal� 150� Million� 100� 50� 50� 0� 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 � � � � � � � � � � Source: University of Idaho, Aquaculture Research Institute 21 22 11

The Aerospace & Defense Forum Linden Blue, General Atomics San Diego Chapter April 25, 2013 23 23 Spectrum cuts cost, weight and Spectrum cuts cost, weight and fuel consumption fuel consumption— —in in half half CONFIDENTIAL 12