Looking back and forwards: the Execution Dilemma and the Importance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Looking back and forwards: the “Execution Dilemma” and the “Importance of Radical Innovation”

Domenico Rossi

ST Microelectronics CAS Workshop 2017 Pavia – March 20th – 21st Almo Collegio Borromeo

The semiconductor industry: why innovation counts

*Source: 2014 ITRS 2.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

year

1 E-2 1 E-1 1 E+0 1 E+1 1 E+2 1 E+3

Func4ons/Chip [ Giga (10^9) – bits, transistors

Average Industry Moore’s Law 2X Functions/Chip per 2 Years MPU Transistors/Chip High-Performance MPU Transistors/Chip Cost-Performance

A Young Industry:

• 1947: 1st Transistor
• Early 60’s: 1st ICs
• 1968: 1st Self Aligned

CMOS

• Since then: Moore’s

Law:

• You know what to

do

• not easy

but Consolidating

What about execution? The Zetta Byte Era

The Zettabyte Era 1/2

• Annual global IP traffic has passed the zettabyte ([ZB]; 1000

exabytes [EB]) threshold by the end of 2016

• It will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent from 2015 to 2020.
• Monthly IP traffic will reach 25 GB per capita by 2020, up from

10 GB per capita in 2015.

• Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020.
• In 2020, PCs will 29% of the traffic (it was 53% IN 2015).
• Smartphones will account for 30 percent of total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8 percent in 2015.
• The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more

than three times the global population by 2020.

• There will be 26.3 billion networked devices in 2020, up from 16.3 billion in 2015.

4

The Zettabyte Era 2/2

• Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2020.
• By 2020, global fixed broadband speeds will double reaching 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps

in 2015.

• Internet video TV grew 50% in 2015.
• This traffic will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.6-fold by 2020.
• Consumer video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will nearly double by

2020.

• The amount of VoD traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 7.2 billion DVDs per month.
• Internet gaming traffic will grow sevenfold from 2015 to 2020, a

CAGR of 46 percent.

• Globally, Internet gaming traffic will be 4 percent of consumer Internet traffic in 2020, up from

2 percent in 2015.

5

Market Requirements

• It’s no secret that data centers, consume

a huge amount of energy

• In US: 70 billion KWh of electricity in 2014 =

2% of the country’s total energy consumption equivalent to the energy consumed in 6.4 million average American homes that year.

• It is not known how extraordinary the ability of data center industry’s

ability to improve energy was.

• While the demand for data center capacity in the US grew tremendously

the total data center energy consumption grew only slightly.

• Staying at the efficiency levels of 2010, data centers would have consumed twice

this level of energy according to US Department of Energy.

• Researchers expect total US data center energy consumption to grow
• nly by 4 percent between now and 2020 – reaching about 73 billion

KWh.

Technology Adoption

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

130nm 16/14nm 22/20nm 10/7nm 65nm 45/40nm 32/28nm 90nm 55nm

Technology adoption by date of ASIC Award: Courtesy of Cisco.

• Servers have gotten a lot more

powerful and efficient.

• Semiconductor industry played an

important role to make it happen

Speed / Power / Area Evolution

16FFC N07

SPEED POWER AREA *

mm2

+ 25%

• 48%
• 30%

Courtesy of TSMC

ASICs for Networking

2008 2016 Same di size, Same Architecure, Same Enabling IP, Same Package Gate count x 10, Memory Size X10, Core Speed x 2, High Speed links x10,

Die 400 – 450 mm2 Power 150 – 175 W FcBGA 50 – 55 mm, 12 – 14 layers 2500 – 3000

Today Complexity ……

Logic 700M gates Memory 2 GigaBits Serdes 150-200@56GB Memory I/F @2GBbps (HBM)

ASIC: the execution…paradigm

COMPLEX ASIC EXECUTION: 12 Months 12 months for ASIC execution, regardless the technology and complexity 1st Netlist Tape

• ut

2nd Netlist Final Netlist

Libraries, IPs CAD Tools

Charlie Chaplin in 1936 “Modern Times”: Little Tramp working on the giant machine.

the production line…

Synthesis Implementation DFT Sign-Off

12 months? Yes we can

What about performances?

Year Technology Node Frequency (GHz)

Margins Lost performances Sign-off with increased margins

Challenge: how to extract more value from a new technology that costs many $B?

The Productivity Vs.Performances Challenge

• EDA industry has not tackled this productivity to performnca gap very

efficiently.

• While traditional issues existed regarding chip design, centered on speed and

the chip area are quite well addresse, newer concerns related to power, signal integrity, yield, and DFM are still to be addressed.

• EDA will have to evolve to aid true system level definitions, to help

architect hardware and software, based on performance, power and

• ther functional needs.
• The software community has to be seamlessly integrated into the

EDA fold with lesser pain.

• IP reusability and integration (especially if from multi-vendors)

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…..and what about innovation?

The XV century “Old World”

• In the XV century the geographical knowledge of the

world was fairly limited and based on the following assumptions

• Only three large continents (i.e., Europe, Africa, and Asia)
• Only one large sea (i.e., Ocean Sea)
• The most difficult challenge in the XV century was to

reach the fabulous and wealthy markets of India and Cathay (i.e., China) by sailing West across the Ocean Sea (i.e., Atlantic Ocean)

Columbus: an innovator in the XV century

Cristoforo Colombo

(1451-1506) was an Italian explorer, navigator, colonizer, and citizen of the Republic of Genoa

• Christopher had a clear

Target

Reaching East Indies by sailing Westward

• a Budget

Spain’s King Ferdinand and Queen Isabelle financed the journey

• the Means to succeed

The Famous Columbus Caravels (Nina, Pinta, Santa Maria)

Columbus: an innovator in the XV century

• Between 1492 and 1504 Columbus carries out four

expeditions, but he never reached the East Indies

• During his 2nd voyage after shoring in Cuba Columbus was

convinced that eventually he had reached Cathay

• He obstinately

refused to recognize the new reality emerging from his voyages

• Cuba was not Cathay

nevertheless..

• He proved he was able to execute (2000 miles

sailed)

• the ROI for Spain was good
• Spain enjoyed European Supremacy overseas until the late

sixteenth century

Columbus: an innovator in the XV century

Military Automotive Portable Navi / Mobile 1980/90 Late 90’s early 2000 88 M cars in 2015 1.4B Smart Phones in 2015

GPS

• Columbus failed, but he succeeded
• Sometimes You “just” fail
• Sometimes You do not fail, but You do not succeed
• When the first working laser was reported in 1960, it was

described as "a solution seeking problems"

• Very often You fail, “before” You succeed

Columbus: an innovator in the XV century

Automotive µ actuators HDD Gaming / Mobile 1980/90 Late 90’s no massive deployment early 2000

MEMS

88 M cars in 2015 1.4B Smart Phones in 2015

From Columbus to Bayes

• Bringing New Technologies up, Opening New Markets,

Launching New Products, like Discovering a New Continent, could be defined in the decision theory, “Uncertain Events”

• “Uncertain” because of the unpredictability of events

which could influence the outcome of a given decision, but “Observable”

• We have prior beliefs that affect how we interpret new

evidence: Cuba was not Cathay!

• We conflicts between the original theoretical project

(i.e., the prior) and an emergent and unexpected new reality (i.e., the posterior)

The Bayes’ Theorem

Thomas Bayes

(1701 - 1761) was an English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister

Our beliefs (i.e., prior) should converge towards the truth (i.e., posterior) as we are presented with more evidence over time The stake holders converge towards the truth and make the right decision only if ideas are debated, experience is achieved, and evidence is uncovered

Open Innovation 2.0: a new way of doing innovation

• The traditional paradigm of Open Innovation 1.0 based
• n a tight collaboration between the Company and a

Value Network of Universities, Customers, and Suppliers is no longer sufficient

• Therefore new key actors such as Government, Public

Authorities, and Citizens must be included in a new collaborative ecosystem (Open Innovation 2.0)

Government/Public Academia Industry Ci8zens

Source: Open innova7on 2.0 yearbook 2016 European Commission

The path to Autonomous Driving

27

IoT and Autonomous Driving: two examples of Open Innovation 2.0

The path toward Autonomous Driving: the Governments

2014 2016 2018 2020

LDW AEB PED LKA LDW LDW LDW AEB AEB AEB PED PED LDW AEB PED PED LKA LKA LDW AEB PED

Potential Source : Regional NCAP agencies

LDW = Lane Departure Warning AEB = Autonomous Emergency Braking PED = Pedestrian Detection LKA = Lane Keeping Assist

From Passive to Active Safety to Autonomous Driving

The path toward Autonomous Driving: the Customers

C Car Makers System Makers

Road Safety – Zero Accident Vision Traffic Management Emission Reduction Demographic Change Innovation

The path toward Autonomous Driving: the Citizens

A new model of partnership

Radar Lidar GPS

Camera

Motion Sensors

Sensors Fusion

Vision Processing Multiple core MCU

Roadmap for Vehicle Automation

Driver Engagement Introduction

Level 1 (Feet Off)

Fully Active Pre 2010

Level 2 (Hands Off)

Fully Active 2016

Blind Spot Detection Lane Departure Warning Obstacle Detection Emergency Braking

Semi-autonomous driving is nowadays a standard option in 30K $ cars

Auto Steering Self-adaptive speed control Traffic Light Detection Adaptive Braking

Roadmap for Vehicle Automation

Driver Engagement Introduction

Level 1 (Feet Off)

Fully Active Pre 2010

Level 2 (Hands Off)

Fully Active 2016 Radar Lidar GPS

Camera

Motion Sensors

Car to Car Car to Infrastructure

Sensors Fusion C2C and C2I Communication

V2I and V2V is aimed to alert drivers to unseen dangers of potential risks and collisions. Non-Line-of-Sight and extended-range sensing that on-board cameras and RADARs cannot offer

Roadmap for Vehicle Automation

Driver Engagement Introduction

Level 1 (Feet Off)

Fully Active Pre 2010

Level 2 (Hands Off) Level 3 (Eyes Off) Level 4 (Mind Off)

Fully Active 2016 Available 2017 Not Required 2021 Radar Lidar GPS

Camera

Motion Sensors

Car to Car Car to Infrastructure

Sensors Fusion C2C and C2I Communication

Who is Mobileye?:

• 1999: founded by Prof.Shashua
• 2003/2004: signed cooperation agreement with Denso, Delphi, Continental
• 2005: signed partnership agreement with ST Microelectronics
• 2007: LDW for Cadillac, BMW5 & 6, Volvo 280,XC90,70,60 and V70
• 2008: Mobileye and Continental launch a world's first system capable LDW and

Traffic Sign Recognition on the BMW 7 series

• 2010: Launch of 1st radar assisted collision avoidance system( vehicle,

pedestrian, bicycle, motorcycle) for Volvo S60 and V60 the

• ………………………..
• 2015: Tesla Motor announced tha Mobileye's technology was used to enable

Model S self-drive solution.

• ……………

Leading Vision Based Systems Two leaders: Mobileye and ST

36

ST and Mobileye partnership

• EyeQ X Vision Processor
• 5 RISC Cores
• 12 DSPs for Video

Acceleration

• Proprietary Image Processing

Algorithms

• 28FDSOI
• ISO 26262 Functional Safety
• Sensors & Advanced

Security

• Leader in Automotive
• Quality ( 0ppm )
• Intimacy with tier 1 & 2

Automotive Players

PMA VMP VMP VMP VMP MIPS MIPS MIPS MIPS MPC MPC AL2$ MIPS 5150 Video CTL MIPI DPHY MIPS L2$

DDRPHY DDRPHY

AL2$

S A F

PMA VMP PMA PMA VMP VMP VMP VMP VMP VMP MIPS MIPS MIPS MIPS LPDDRPHY LPDDRPHY MPC MPC PMA VMP VMP VMP VMP MIPS MIPS MIPS MIPS MPC MPC AL2$ MIPS 5150 Video CTL MIPI DPHY MIPS L2$

DDRPHY DDRPHY

AL2$

S A F

PMA VMP PMA PMA VMP VMP VMP VMP VMP VMP MIPS MIPS MIPS MIPS LPDDRPHY LPDDRPHY MPC MPC

x8

Active car management Surround monitoring HD Video Output Autonomous driving

x8

EyeQ2 EyeQ3 EyeQ4

Processing power Processing power

Object recognition Line departure warning Traffic sign recognition Pedestrian recognition

Today

• Molieye has been acquired by Intel for 15B$
• ST will keep producing eyeQX
• both will be market leaders quite for a long

37

• Start-ups will be like Columbus caravels sailing the

Ocean Sea towards the New World and innovators and courageous entrepreneurs will be the modern Columbuses

• But visionary managers in the large companies need

to embrace the Open Innovation paradigm and build virtuous ecosystems by supporting the most innovative start-ups even when this means taking some limited risk

38

Back to Columbus’s age

39

The Royal Fleet must always be available either to protect the Kingdom from external assailants … or to move to the conquest of new known territories

Like the Royal Fleet large established companies and the Investors must make available the “weapons” to conquer “New Worlds”

Back to Columbus’s age

Back to Columbus’s age

40

Similarly to the Kingdom of Spain, which didn’t send the Royal Fleet to discover a new world … … but granted Columbus a limited budget for a small expedition of three caravels …

Large established companies and Investors have to support disruptive projects (even the small ones!)

Conclusions

• Surprisingly enough, “execution” and “innovation”

are just the two sides of the same coin.

• “Innovation” is needed to “better execute”
• We can learn a lot for “execution”: (planning,

program monitoring, …… ) to “better manage innovation”

41

if failures are likely to happen

42

“You call always know who pioneers are because they have arrows in the backs “ (unknown)

risk mitigation and a fast initial (sometimes wrong) hypothesis adjustment require a collaborative approach.

43

…. applying the Bayesian paradigm to innovation

44

Indoor Navigation

Starting from a known reference point (GPS position) uses 2 sensors (accelerometer for motion and Gyro for directions) to track the phone when moving Pokémon Go is free to play, location- based augmented reality game

Courtesy of Pokémon Company

…… and never desperate!!!!