[PPT] - Licence Application Yield Assessment 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB Abstraction Licence Application Yield Assessment

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 29/01/2016 00:00 03/02/2016 00:00 08/02/2016 00:00 13/02/2016 00:00 18/02/2016 00:00

SLIDE 2

Conjunctive use or Farm reservoir – yield Dependent Current Constraints

Estimated average yield 1500-

2000Ml.

600-800 Ml demand for irrigation
1000Ml+ demand for P.W.S
188 Ml currently licenced
Design year yield unknown
Lack of local reliable flow data
Currently two pumping stations

Kings fleet and Falkenham

Possible to move water from Kings

Fleet to Falkenham

Water Quality constraints
Freshwater flow to Estuary

SLIDE 3

Assessing Yield Hydrological models Catchment Hydrology

Available Methods include Low

Flows Enterprise; NEAC model ; Catchment comparison; Rainfall run off modelling .

Catchmod Rainfall runoff

modelmost suited to this application .

Catchment divided into

hydrological zones.

Water moves vertically through a

series of conceptual stores in each zone

Inputs Potential Evaporation and

Rainfall 1970-2015.

Calibrated with catchment
bserved flow data



SLIDE 4

Kings Fleet – Falkenham model Build

Inputs

Potential Evaporation MORECS

weekly .

1970-2015 Rainfall Locally gauged

for Calibration – Levington for P.O.R. (inc other gauges for infilling).

Flows – gauged at Falkenham and

kings fleet Pumps . Check with

ther gauges , Holesley, Brantham,

Playford etc.

Hydrological zones; superficial

Aquifer 35%, Alluvium 32%, London clay 25%, Hard surface rapid 8%

Single unit calibration

SLIDE 5

IDB Pump data

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01/01/2016 00:0006/01/2016 00:0011/01/2016 00:0016/01/2016 00:0021/01/2016 00:0026/01/2016 00:0031/01/2016 00:0005/02/2016 00:0010/02/2016 00:0015/02/2016 00:0020/02/2016 00:00

Kings fleet hourly Discharge 01/01/2016 to 11/03/2015

Series1 168 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1) 24 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)

Significant periodicity @ 24 hour

and 7 day – not hydrological – cost minimisation

Correction required for calibration

. Maximum period of 7 day selected as filter .

Model output's reported to 7 day

rolling output .

Uncertainty regarding the more

rapid response functions of the catchment .

Local gauge and model checks

indicate good accuracy of gauged data (next slide)

SLIDE 6

IDB Gauging Plausibility checks

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 20 40 60 80 100 120 15/07/2015 03/09/2015 23/10/2015 12/12/2015 31/01/2016 21/03/2016 10/05/2016 runoff mm Kings Fleet & Falkenham IDB pumped cumulative runoff compared to L.F.E. Mean monthly runoff. Data shown for Time period September 2015 to March 2016 - 96 % L.T.A. Rainfall L.F.E gauged L.T.A. Rainfall 2015/2016 Rainfall Series5

Poly. (L.F.E)
Poly. (L.T.A. Rainfall)
Poly. (2015/2016 Rainfall)
Early monitoring data Sep 2015 –

Mar 2016 run off compared to gauge and existing steady state models .

Sep 2015 – Mar 2016 Rainfall 96 %
f L.T.A.
Sep 2015 – Mar 2016 Measured run
ff 99 % L.T.A compared to L.F. E

model . (95mm)

Very encouraging checks for

accurate metering .

SLIDE 7

IDB Pump Totals 2015-2016

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 CUBIC METRES

Cumulative Pumped Volume

Kings fleet Falkenham 2 Falkenham 1

Total Measured

discharge 01/08/2015 to 31/06/2016. Approx. 2800000m3

Runoff 57 % Kings fleet:

43% Falkenham

Area 61% king fleet: 39%

Falkenham

Rainfall Aug to June 114

% L.T.A.

SLIDE 8

Catchmod Rainfall runoff model Calibration

Calibrate to individual

hydrological zones .

Soil moisture profiles
Flow statistics including flow

duration curves .

Catchment yield.
Total flow

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Rainfall (mm) Flow (cumecs) Date

Contribution to Flows by Area (Kings fleet) Observed Rainfall Simulated Area 1: Gravel crag Area 2: Alluvium Area 3: London clay Area 4: Urban 8 per. Mov. Avg. (Observed) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Simulated)

SLIDE 9

Total flow Calibration

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Rainfall (mm) Flow (cumecs) Date

Model Fit (Kings Fleet & Falkenham)

Observed Rainfall Simulated Flow 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Observed ) 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Simulated Flow)

7 day rolling output to remove

periodicity.

Removes probable urban

peaks- attenuated by storage

Good calibration of observed

aquifer baseflow trends.

Probable 10-15 %

underestimate of long term average yield

Underestimate associated with

run off from marsh area , too high S.M.D. in shoulder months. ?

SLIDE 10

Catchmod calibration ‘v’ existing models. L..F E

0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.005 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

Modelled Run off M3/s/km2 - L.F.E. and Catchmod

Catchmod Low Flows Enterprise

Good calibration of seasonal

runoff with steady state models .

Baseflow months Consistently

10-15 % lower . Runoff dominated months 10-15 5 higher.

Consistent with

conceptualisation that L. f. E. model overestimates baseflow index @ 0.82 .

SLIDE 11

Calibration flow Duration statistics

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000

m3/sec Percentile

Catchmod and L.F.E. Mean Daily flow Duration curves

Modelled 1973-2015 L.F.E model calibration 7 day IDB gauged 7day

Good Calibration with
bserved
Modelled and observed flow

expected to exceed L.T.A.

Monitoring period generated

significantly more run off than Long term 1970-2014 modelled

Long term modelled conforms

to conceptualisation of greater runoff and lower baseflow relative to existing model .

Catchmod Modelled mean

yield believed to be 10-15 % below actual .

SLIDE 12

Catchmod Aquifer zone Calibration

5.9 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 18/02/1982 11/08/1987 31/01/1993 24/07/1998 14/01/2004 06/07/2009 27/12/2014 18/06/2020

Groundwater Level Maod

modelled flow m3/sec

Axis Title

Catchmod Calibration - Aquifer flows and Observed groundwater hydrographs

Gravel sim flows elm cottage levels Mill lane Boyton

Aquifer 35 % of total
runoff. Major summer

component .

Longer term Calibration

with local groundwater levels , extends calibration period beyond flow monitoring .

Very good trend

calibration with Elm Cottage Hollesley and mill Lane Boyton.

SLIDE 13

Catchmod Final Calibration

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 1.000 01/05/1970 01/05/1971 01/05/1972 01/05/1973 01/05/1974 01/05/1975 01/05/1976 01/05/1977 01/05/1978 01/05/1979 01/05/1980 01/05/1981 01/05/1982 01/05/1983 01/05/1984 01/05/1985 01/05/1986 01/05/1987 01/05/1988 01/05/1989 01/05/1990 01/05/1991 01/05/1992 01/05/1993 01/05/1994 01/05/1995 01/05/1996 01/05/1997 01/05/1998 01/05/1999 01/05/2000 01/05/2001 01/05/2002 01/05/2003 01/05/2004 01/05/2005 01/05/2006 01/05/2007 01/05/2008 01/05/2009 01/05/2010 01/05/2011 01/05/2012 01/05/2013 01/05/2014

m3/sec

Kings Fleet modelled Total flow and Crag/gravel Baseflow

Mean Daily flow data sets 1970-

2015 ( calibrated to weekly)

Winter run off more significant than
ther models B.F.I. 0.62 ‘v’ 0.85 L.F.E
Vulnerability to dry winters
Significant hard surface runoff

component.

Crag/gravel baseflow providing

significant summer yield . Model believed to underestimate crag flows in dry years . Q(bf) mean = 0.025m3/sec . Probable 0.030m3/sec

Calibration Mean run off - low

119mm, MORECS/HOST gridded 127mm (baseflow component)

SLIDE 14

IDB pumped Catchment Design Year

IDB estimated mean

yield 2000 Ml

Modelled mean yield

1930 Ml

Lowest 661Ml in 1990
Highest 5141 Ml in 2000

2481 2551 978 866 2050 1365 2354 1285 1909 1550 1591 1833 1447 1657 2199 1741 2053 4618 1902 1035 732 870 1191 2302 2542 1135 661 1013 1422 1563 5141 2793 2613 1112 1419 778 2253 2291 2747 1636 1623 803 3846 2620 3555 2524

1 9 7 0 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5

IDB POTENTIAL GROSS YIELD KINGS FLEET & FALKENHAM

Modelled gross yield Catchmod Mean Gross yield IDB Estimated Mean yield

SLIDE 15

Scheme Reliability

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

Potential yield Ml % Probability Of Available yield

Yield /Probability Curve - 1970-2015

Irrigation Only Scheme Multi use Scheme

Assuming Resource can be

fully optimised. Unrestricted infrastructure capability

Multi use Scheme – 2100 Ml- 65

% chance of non-availability in any year.

Irrigation Scheme – 800 Ml - 4

% risk of non- availability.

Irrigation Scheme – 600 Ml –

100 % reliable.

Precautionary model

calibration Reasonable assumption to increase dry year yield by 10-15%

SLIDE 16

Further constraint

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 01/05/1995 01/06/1995 01/07/1995 01/08/1995 01/09/1995 01/10/1995 01/11/1995 01/12/1995 01/01/1996 01/02/1996 01/03/1996 01/04/1996 01/05/1996 01/06/1996 01/07/1996 01/08/1996 01/09/1996 01/10/1996 01/11/1996 01/12/1996 01/01/1997 01/02/1997 01/03/1997 01/04/1997 01/05/1997 01/06/1997 01/07/1997 01/08/1997 01/09/1997 01/10/1997 01/11/1997 01/12/1997 01/01/1998 01/02/1998 01/03/1998 01/04/1998