Lessons Learned From my Travels Across the Valley of Death The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy Technology Innovation Lessons Learned From my Travels Across the Valley of Death

The Following is an Abbreviated Version of the Presentation

Stephen Piccot

Energy Technology Development & Deployment Experience

Pilot Plant Development Demonstration Sites

Who Will Cross The Valley of Death?

Time Cumulative Profits and Losses

Analysis of Energy Technology Commercialization Efforts

• Ten firms I have encountered in my 30 year career
• Natural gas use, distributed generation, bioenergy, waste

to energy (four involve AD)

• Both technology suppliers and suppliers/plant operators
• No company names or other data that can identify them
• Analysis approach

– Identify factors that in my opinion impacted their efforts to successfully cross the valley of death – Aggregate findings, common factors, lessons learned

Common Failure Pathways

Failure Path

1. Misjudges or misrepresents the true time, level of effort, or

• ther requirements needed to

cross the technical

• r

commercial valleys of death (usually the technical, though) 2. Misjudges or misrepresents the target market growth & status, and/or the market entry strategy 3. Combination

• f

above with frantic, shoot from the hip technology problem solving 4. Partners fail to fuse strongly enough to climb the challenging hills that await them

Symptom

1. Low applied R&D experience, failure to act on internal R&D experts input, excess bravado, tendency to lack objectivity (a true believer), nefarious strategy to seek investment 2. Market just forming, low market analysis skill, tendency to think wishfully, nefarious with investors 3. The above, often coupled with inexperienced/impatient investor 4. Partnerships of convenience, lack

• f strong complementary features
• r formal partnership agreements

Other Observations

• Common symptoms of success

– Market for product exists now, is well understood – Firms leadership is objective, unafraid to question long held assumptions, forms diverse teams, values honesty

• Technology innovation and performance is important,

but business model innovation/specification is too

• Don’t underestimate the difficulty of integrating one

new subsystem with an existing demonstrated system

• Expect to experience luck along the way; both good

and bad

Thank You!

Sometimes when you innovate, you make

• mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly and get
• n with improving your innovations.
• Steve Jobs

Study: AD and Gasification For Energy Recovery From Bio-solids

Source: Abu-Orf, M. et. al. 16th European Biosolids and Organic Resources Conference

Life Cycle Cost and Other Comparisons

• Outcomes of comparison likely feedstock specific.

Feature AD Gasification

Plant Footprint Highest Lower Mass Reduction Lower Highest CO2e Emissions Lower Highest Electrical Production Potential Highest Lower Water discharge Highest Lowest