Energy Technology Innovation Lessons Learned From my Travels Across the Valley of Death The Following is an Abbreviated Version of the Presentation Stephen Piccot
Energy Technology Development & Deployment Experience Pilot Plant Development Demonstration Sites
Who Will Cross The Valley of Death? Cumulative Profits and Losses Time
Analysis of Energy Technology Commercialization Efforts • Ten firms I have encountered in my 30 year career • Natural gas use, distributed generation, bioenergy, waste to energy (four involve AD) • Both technology suppliers and suppliers/plant operators • No company names or other data that can identify them • Analysis approach – Identify factors that in my opinion impacted their efforts to successfully cross the valley of death – Aggregate findings, common factors, lessons learned
Common Failure Pathways Failure Path Symptom 1. Misjudges or misrepresents the 1. Low applied R&D experience, true time, level of effort, or failure to act on internal R&D other requirements needed to experts input, excess bravado, cross the technical or tendency to lack objectivity (a true commercial valleys of death believer ), nefarious strategy to (usually the technical, though) seek investment 2. Misjudges or misrepresents the 2. Market just forming, low market target market growth & status, analysis skill, tendency to think and/or the market entry strategy wishfully, nefarious with investors 3. The above, often coupled with 3. Combination of above with inexperienced/impatient investor frantic, shoot from the hip technology problem solving 4. Partnerships of convenience, lack 4. Partners fail to fuse strongly of strong complementary features enough to climb the challenging or formal partnership agreements hills that await them
Other Observations • Common symptoms of success – Market for product exists now, is well understood – Firms leadership is objective, unafraid to question long held assumptions, forms diverse teams, values honesty • Technology innovation and performance is important, but business model innovation/specification is too • Don’t underestimate the difficulty of integrating one new subsystem with an existing demonstrated system • Expect to experience luck along the way; both good and bad
Sometimes when you innovate, you make mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly and get on with improving your innovations. -Steve Jobs Thank You!
Study: AD and Gasification For Energy Recovery From Bio-solids Source: Abu-Orf, M. et. al. 16th European Biosolids and Organic Resources Conference
Life Cycle Cost and Other Comparisons Feature AD Gasification Plant Footprint Highest Lower Mass Reduction Lower Highest CO2e Emissions Lower Highest Electrical Production Potential Highest Lower Water discharge Highest Lowest • Outcomes of comparison likely feedstock specific.
Recommend
More recommend
