GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Lesson 13 Multi hazard analysis 13.01 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Types of mining disasters • Side fall (slope failure) disaster in opencast mines • Roof and side falls in underground mines • Collapse of mine pillars • Air Blast • Failure of rope haulage • Accident due to electricity • Mine fires • Accidents due to explosive • Inundations • Explosions in mines • Rock burst and bumps 13.02 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Chemical and industrial emergencies arise from: • Explosion in a plant • Accidents in storage facilities of chemicals • Accidents during the transportation of chemicals, misuse of chemicals • Improper waste management • Accidents in treatment plants • Technological system failures • Failures of plant safety design • Arson and sabotage • Human error 13.03 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Situations where stampedes can occur • Entertainment events • Escalator and moving walkways • Food distribution • Processions • Natural disasters • Power failure • Religious events • Fire incidents during religious/other events • Riots • Sports events • Weather related 13.04 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Expected degree of loss due to a particular natural phenomenon is the product of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements at risks • hazard characteristics differ, and thus also the methods to analyze them • hazards are related and influence each other - described as hazard chains, cascades, etc. • natural processes exert diverging impacts on elements at risk, describe methods to distinguish them • variety of risk description and quantification measures to be adapted to enable the comparison of multiple risks Hence, carry out • joint hazard analysis of multiple natural threats • assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk toward multiple hazards • analysis of risk arising from multiple natural hazards, combining the aspects hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements at risk • joint visualization of multiple hazards. 13.05 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Multi-hazard check list Water and climate disasters Accident related disasters a) Floods and drainage management a) Forest fires b) Cyclones c) Tornadoes and hurricanes b) Urban fires d) Hailstorm c) Mine flooding d) Oil spills e) Cloud burst f ) Heat wave and cold wave e) Major building collapse f ) Serial bomb blasts g) Snow avalanches h) Droughts g) Festival related disasters i) Sea erosion h) Electrical disasters and fires i) Air, road and rail accidents j) Thunder and lightening k) Tsunami j) Boat capsizing Geological disasters k) Village fire j) stampede a) Landslides and mudflows b) Earthquakes c) Dam failures/ Dam bursts Biological disasters d) Minor fires a) Biological disasters and epidemics iii. Chemical, industrial and nuclear related disasters b) Pest attacks a) Chemical and industrial disasters c) Cattle epidemics b) Nuclear disasters d) Food poisoning 13.06 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Multi-hazard risk assessment provide an overview of the risks. 1. Magnitude and likelihood of hazards Risk assessment begin with the identification of what natural hazards can be expected and how they might change in the short and medium term as a result of climate change. 2. Vulnerability analysis - assessment should: a) identify who are the most exposed and vulnerable populations to potential hazards b)identify what assets are most exposed to potential hazards c)assess the nature and factors contributing to their vulnerability d)estimate the susceptibility to hazards 3) In-country capacity to address disaster risk National, provincial and local capacity to cope with disasters include policies, planning and investment that are in place or in the pipeline to build disaster resilience. The core stakeholder groups that should be engaged (national and local government, donors, UN and IFIs, NGOs, private sector and academia). • cover the broad range of action: prevention, mitigation and emergency preparedness through to disaster response, recovery and reconstruction. 13.07 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay .
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 4 . Overall impact assessment Estimating the potential impact of hazards will need to be derived from analysis of previous events, taking stock of improvements that will have reduced vulnerability, as well as any probabilistic modelling that exists. Potential impacts from hazards are: • economic through destruction/damage to infrastructure and businesses; • social through the death of family members, breakdown of networks and trauma; • environmental as an immediate consequence of the disaster, but also due to the reaction of the effected community and the humanitarian response; and • political impacts due to a government’s inability or lack of willingness to respond. Risk is a function of hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityas shown below. Risk = (Hazard exposure X Vulnerability) / Coping capacity The stages in a multi-hazard risk assessment take each factor in turn to provide an overview of the risks 13.08 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Source courtesy: intechopen.com 13.09 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.10 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Method Advantages Disadvantages Provides quantitative risk Very data demanding. Difficult to quantify information that can be used in Cost- temporal probability, hazard intensity and Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) benefit analysis of risk reduction vulnerability. measures. The probabilities for the different nodes are Allow modelling of a sequence of difficult to assess, and spatial Event-tree analysis events, and works well for domino implementation is very difficult due to lack effects of data. The method doesn’t give quantitative values Allows to express risk using classes that can be used in cost-benefit analysis of instead of exact values, and is a good risk reduction measures. The assessment of Risk matrix approach basis for discussing risk reduction impacts and frequencies is difficult, and one measures. area might have different combinations of impacts and frequencies. Only method that allows to carry out The resulting risk is relative and doesn’t a holistic risk assessment, including Indicator-based approach provide information on actual expected social, economic and environmental losses. vulnerability and capacity. 13.11 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.12 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.13 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.14 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.15 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management GNR 639 13.16 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.17 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management 13.18 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Disaster resilience, climate change and other factors Climate change has increased, and will continue to increase, the number of disasters caused by sudden extreme climatic events. The impact of climate change on disaster resilience therefore needs to be considered. The risk assessment and disaster resilience strategy also need to take into account broader issues that will have implications on vulnerability and disaster risk. This could include population increase, migration and price rises. Disaster resilience and conflict In fragile and conflict -affected states, disaster resilience needs to be considered alongside conflict sensitivity. Conflict can pose a humanitarian threat in itself, as well as exacerbating vulnerability to other hazards. Interventions to promote disaster resilience need to ensure that they do not exacerbate underlying causes of conflict. In assessing hazards such as conflict or outbreaks of violence, it will be useful to draw on cross- 13.19 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
GNR 639 GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management Risk management frameworks : • What are the probable dangers and their magnitude? ( Danger Identification) • How often do the dangers of a given magnitude occur? ( Hazard Assessment) • What are the elements at risk? ( Elements at Risk Identification) • What is the possible damage to the elements at risk? ( Vulnerability Assessment) • What is the probability of damage? ( Risk E stimation) • What is the significance of the estimated risk? ( Risk Evaluation) • What should be done? ( Risk Management) 13.20 Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay
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