Lake Mead Pro La rotection Actions 2 Programs to Protect Lake Mead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

La Lake Mead Pro rotection Actions

2 Programs to Protect Lake Mead Elevations:

• Lower Basin Pilot Drought Response Actions MOU (LB

MOU)

• Pilot System Conservation Agreement (PSCA)

740 KAF ~75 KAF

PSCA Phase 1 ‘15-’16: Total funding = $11 M ($8.25M LB/$2.75M UB) BOR = $3M CAP = $2M SNWA = $2M MWD = $2M Denver Water = $2M

LB MOU ‘14 – ’17 Volumes: CAP = 345 KAF MWD = 300 KAF BOR = 50 KAF SNWA = 45 KAF PSCA Phase 2 ‘16 –’17:

Total funding = $7.5 M ($6.5 M LB/$1.0M UB) BOR = $4M CAP = $1M SNWA = $1M MWD = $1M Denver Water = tbd

Agenda Number 11

2014 2015 2016 Total 6,827 7,137 7,000 20,964 80,922 82,922 163,844 10,627 10,627 15,000 16,000 31,000 18,290 81,964 18,311 118,565 MOU Program Subtotals 25,117 185,023 134,860 345,000 MOU Program Costs

• 2,124,000

$ 2,620,000 $ 4,744,000 $ 2014 2015 2016 Total 25,265 25,265 10,080 10,080 Pilot Program Subtotals

• 10,080

25,265 35,345 Pilot Program Costs*

• 743,000

$ 1,825,000 $ 2,568,000 $

* includes additional conservation savings generated above CAP-related programs indicated

2014 2015 2016 Total 13,933 13,933

• 13,933

13,933 2014 2015 2016 Total 25,117 195,103 174,058 394,278 Ag Forbearance 2 Program USBR/Tohono O'odham System Conservation Total Forbearance Target Reclamation Program Subtotals Fort McDowell Y avapai Nation System Conservation CAP and On River Turnback Program

Pilot System Conserv ation Programs Reclamation System Conserv ation Program

CAP Forbearance Volumes to Support Lake Mead Conservation Efforts

Municipal Forbearance - Supply Replacement EC-ICS

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Reserv oir Protection Volumes

Program Y uma Mesa Irrigation and Drainage District Fallowing Ag Forbearance 1 EC-ICS Ag Forbearance 3

Lake Mead Pro rotection Pro rogress

• CAP’s MOU target of 345 kaf will be completed by the end of

2016

• BOR and SNWA will have conserved more than 44 kaf of their

MOU target by the end of 2016

• CAP with its Lower Basin PSCP partners will have conserved

more than 50 kaf by the end of 2016

• The combined efforts will put more than 435 kaf by the end of

2016 or 5.5’ in Lake Mead

Mexico has a current balance of about 230,000 acre-feet of conservation storage in Lake Mead – another 3ft

5/16/2016 3

Lake Mead Lake Powell

73% 91% 84% 69% 91% 50%, 12.08 MAF 1,220’ 3,700’ 3,603’

Colorado River Water Supply Report Total System Contents: 27.48 MAF

5/30/16

2016 Equalization Level 3,651’ Tier 1 Shortage 1,075’ 1,074’ Reservoir Current Change Maximum Lake Mead 9.52

• 0.26

25.90 Lake Powell 12.08 + 1.10 24.30 Flaming Gorge Reservoir 3.42 + 0.22 3.75 Navajo Reservoir 1.55 + 0.07 1.70 Blue Mesa Reservoir 0.57 0.00 0.83 Fontenelle Reservoir 0.25 + 0.10 0.34 Morrow Point Reservoir 0.10

• 0.01

0.12 Reservoir Capacities (MAF)

Note: Even though Lake Mead is below the Tier 1 shortage elevation, no shortage condition is declared until the USBR August 24 month study projects an end of year Lake Mead elevation below 1075’.

37%, 9.52 MAF

Agenda Number 11 Attachment 1

Snow Conditions As of 5/31/2016, the current SWE is 4.7 inches. When the current SWE is compared to the historical (1981-2010) median SWE (2.5 inches) for the same date (5/31/2016), the current SWE is at 188% of the historical median SWE. When compared to the historical median for the entire season (14.2 inches), the current SWE is at 33% of the entire season. Probability of Shortage Current modeling results from April 2016 generated by the Bureau of Reclamation show a 10% probability of Colorado River shortage for 2017 and a 56% probability for 2018. The probabilities of shortage for the years after 2018 are above 60%.

Year Probability

• f

Shortage Probability

• f Tier 1

Shortage Probability

• f Tier 2

Shortage Probability

• f Tier 3

Shortage 2017 10% 10% 0% 0% 2018 56% 56% <1% 0% 2019 64% 46% 18% <1% 2020 64% 40% 18% 6% 2021 61% 33% 18% 10%

Lake Powell Inflow The May 24-month study shows the observed and projected inflow into Lake Powell for Water Year 2016 to be 8.7 MAF. Even though the SWE for this water year tracks with the historical median, unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is below the historical average. This is likely due to the dry conditions in the basin early in the snowmelt season (February-March). The main runoff season that contributes the largest inflow into Lake Powell is during the months of April – July. From the May 24-month study, the 2016 April – July runoff forecast is 77% (5.504 MAF) of the historical average (7.158 MAF). The 2015 runoff season was 94% (6.712 MAF) of the historical average.

Agenda Number 11 Attachment 2