Labour Market Update targeting workforce opportunities What data do - - PDF document

▶
labour market update
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Labour Market Update targeting workforce opportunities What data do - - PDF document

Oct 06, 2022 206 likes •381 views

16/01/2014 What do we do? Our mission is to serve the Niagara region with: local labour market planning delivering authoritative research identifying employment trends Labour Market Update targeting workforce opportunities What

slide-1
SLIDE 1

16/01/2014 1

Labour Market Update

What do we do?

Our mission is to serve the Niagara region with:

  • local labour market planning
  • delivering authoritative research
  • identifying employment trends
  • targeting workforce opportunities

What data do we use?

Labour Force Survey 2011 NHS Education/Attainment Population and Migration Occupation (2011) Characteristics Census and Taxfiler CBP – Employer Characteristics and Trends Local research – e.g. West Niagara BR+E survey Brock student consulting EO Client Data from MTCU (new)

Niagara-on-the-Lake: A Brief Profile

slide-2
SLIDE 2

16/01/2014 2

Job Numbers in NOTL

Source: EMSI Analyst

6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Top Ten Occupations in NOTL, 2012

Source: EMSI Analyst

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 100 200 300 400 500 600

Agriculture and horticulture workers Motor vehicle and transit drivers Cleaners Retail salespersons and sales clerks Machine

  • perators and

related workers in food, beverage and tobacco processing Occupations in food and beverage service Sales representatives, wholesale trade Administrative and regulatory

  • ccupations

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related

  • ccupations

Chefs and cooks

Median hourly income (2012) Workers (2012)

Top Ten Industries in NOTL, 2012

Source: EMSI Analyst

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Average income (2012) Jobs (2012)

NOTL Income

  • $86.50 out of every $100 income is

measured as “market income”

  • 14.5% of incomes are from retirement

pensions, superannuation, and annuities – more than double the rate in Ontario

  • Average earnings in 2012 were $36,900 or

80% of the national average

Source: EMSI Analyst and Statistics Canada

slide-3
SLIDE 3

16/01/2014 3

The Niagara Region’s Demographic Challenge

Niagara’s aging population

Source: Census, 1996

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

1996

Female Male

Niagara’s aging population

Source: Census, 2001

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2001

Female Male

Niagara’s aging population

Source: Census, 2006

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2006

Female Male

slide-4
SLIDE 4

16/01/2014 4

Niagara’s aging population

Source: National Household Survey, 2011

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2011

Female Male

Niagara’s aging population

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2016 (projection)

Female Male

Niagara’s aging population

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2021 (projection)

Female Male

Niagara’s aging population

20000 15000 10000 5000 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

2026 (projection)

Female Male

slide-5
SLIDE 5

16/01/2014 5

Niagara’s aging population

Source: National Household Survey, 2011

30000 20000 10000 10000 20000 30000 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over

Ontario (5%) and Niagara

Female St. Catharines 5% Female Ontario Male St. Catharines 5% Male Ontario

Niagara’s aging workforce

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-96 Oct-96 May-97 Dec-97 Jul-98 Feb-99 Sep-99 Apr-00 Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 15 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over Source: Labour Force Survey estimates

Niagara’s aging workforce

  • The proportion of the working

age population will shrink faster

  • Increases in income and standard
  • f living through increasing the

employment rate become increasingly difficult

Source: Department of Finance Canada, Economic and Fiscal Implications of Canada’s Aging Population (March 2, 2012)

Niagara’s aging workforce

  • Unless labour market

participation and productivity improve, economic growth will suffer and labour shortages may result

Source: Department of Finance Canada, Economic and Fiscal Implications of Canada’s Aging Population (March 2, 2012)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

16/01/2014 6

Labour participation is not increasing

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13

Niagara’s stagnant population

  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Population Growth (non-compound)

Niagara

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 051-00146, census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates

Niagara’s stagnant population

  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Population Growth (non-compound)

Niagara Hamilton Waterloo Toronto

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 051-00146, census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates

Niagara’s stagnant labour force

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Labour Force Working Age Population Total Population Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 282-0110 & 051-0046 , census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates, labour force survey estimates

slide-7
SLIDE 7

16/01/2014 7

Secular Stagnation

  • “Unless labour force

participation… starts rising rapidly again, this means a slower-growth economy, and thanks to the accelerator effect, lower investment demand.”

  • - Paul Krugman

Source: Paul Krugman, “Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers” in The New York Times, November 16, 2013

What is Secular Stagnation?

  • A falling birth rate and a declining

population produce economic stagnation

  • More people means more houses,
  • ffices, cars, etc.
  • When population growth slows, that

demand falters

What is Secular Stagnation?

  • The accelerator effect makes this

worse

  • Economic booms become weaker and

shorter-lived; depressions become longer and deeper

  • A depressed economy and high

unemployment become the norms

Challenges

  • Niagara needs to attract and retain

more people, especially the young

  • Niagara needs to bring more of its

existing population into the labour force

slide-8
SLIDE 8

16/01/2014 8

Niagara’s Labour Force

Niagara labour force by gender

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Full-time

Males, full-time Females, full-time

38% 44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Part-time

Males, part-time Females, part-time

72% 67%

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2012

Ontario workers not seeking work

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2012 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Illness Personal/family responsibilities School Awaiting recall/reply Discouraged Other Workers, Male Workers, Female

Challenges

  • Most of the potential workforce in

Niagara and most of the part-time workforce that could be full-time are women

  • Family obligations keep them from

greater participation

  • Daycare is probably the biggest issue
slide-9
SLIDE 9

16/01/2014 9

Ontario labour force education

10% 27% 63% Less than Grade 12 Grade 12 only

Source: National Household Survey, 2011

Post-secondary

Niagara labour force education

11% 32% 57% Less than Grade 12 Grade 12 only

Source: National Household Survey, 2011

Post-secondary

Unemployment by Educational Level

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Less than Grade 12 Completion of Grade 12 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma Completion of College, CEGEP or non-university certificate or diploma Completion of University below bachelor level Completion of University at bachelor level or above Niagara Ontario Source: National Household Survey, 2011

Unemployment by Age

Source: Labour Force Survey Estimates, 2013 average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 15 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 years and over Niagara Ontario

slide-10
SLIDE 10

16/01/2014 10

Unemployment rate in Niagara

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan-87 Sep-87 May-88 Jan-89 Sep-89 May-90 Jan-91 Sep-91 May-92 Jan-93 Sep-93 May-94 Jan-95 Sep-95 May-96 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13

1987 market crash 1990 recession Dot-com crash Great Recession 1995 slump

Seasonal unemployment in Niagara

Source: Labour Force Survey Estimates 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Winter Summer

Seasonal unemployment in Niagara

Source: Labour Force Survey Estimates 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Summer 2008 Winter 2009 Summer 2009 Winter 2010 Summer 2010 Winter 2011 Summer 2011 Winter 2012 Summer 2012 Winter 2013 Summer 2013 Unemployment Rate

Seasonal industry in Niagara

Source: Labour Force Survey Estimates 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 Summer 2008 Winter 2009 Summer 2009 Winter 2010 Summer 2010 Winter 2011 Summer 2011 Winter 2012 Summer 2012 Winter 2013 Summer 2013 Agriculture Construction Information, culture and recreation

slide-11
SLIDE 11

16/01/2014 11

Unemployment

  • Niagara has both a lower educational

level and a higher unemployment rate than the province

  • These things are probably linked to

some degree

  • Niagara’s unemployment is highly

seasonal

Challenges

  • Unemployment rates are highest

among the young and the less- educated

  • Our focus must be on strategies to

educate and train the youth workforce

  • Reducing seasonality requires

economic diversification

Niagara Poverty

EI beneficiaries in Niagara

Source: Statistics Canada, Employment Insurance program reporting 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Jan 1997 Jul 1997 Jan 1998 Jul 1998 Jan 1999 Jul 1999 Jan 2000 Jul 2000 Jan 2001 Jul 2001 Jan 2002 Jul 2002 Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Dot-com crash Great Recession

slide-12
SLIDE 12

16/01/2014 12

Niagara Income by Age

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Average Niagara Ontario Canada Source: National Household Survey, 2011

Niagara Income Inequality

Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler data

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000

Median Income in Niagara by Income Group, 2002 dollars

Top 1 percent income group Bottom 90 percent income group Bottom 50 percent income group Linear (Top 1 percent income group)

Niagara Working Poverty

Source: Statistics Canada, Income Statistics Division – 1992 base

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percentage of working-age persons below low-income cutoff (gross)

Niagara’s Industry

slide-13
SLIDE 13

16/01/2014 13

Niagara businesses

Source: Canadian Business Patterns, 2013

Owner-operated Less than 10 employees 10-49 employees 50-199 employees Over 200 employees

Niagara businesses in detail

Owner-Operated 1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 to 199 200 to 499 500 + 50 and over Source: Canadian Business Patterns, 2013

Composition of Niagara Industry

71.1% 78.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Services-producing sector Goods-producing sector Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013

Niagara Goods-Producing Industries

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13

Jobs x 1,000

Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Linear ( Agriculture ) Linear ( Construction ) Linear ( Manufacturing )

slide-14
SLIDE 14

16/01/2014 14

Ontario Manufacturing and the US Dollar

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates & Bank of Canada Historical Exchange Rates

$0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 11/1976 10/1977 9/1978 8/1979 7/1980 6/1981 5/1982 4/1983 3/1984 2/1985 1/1986 12/1986 11/1987 10/1988 9/1989 8/1990 7/1991 6/1992 5/1993 4/1994 3/1995 2/1996 1/1997 12/1997 11/1998 10/1999 9/2000 8/2001 7/2002 6/2003 5/2004 4/2005 3/2006 2/2007 1/2008 12/2008 11/2009 10/2010 9/2011 8/2012 7/2013

CDN Dollars per $1 US Jobs x1,000

Manufacturing Jobs in Ontario US Dollar Exchange Rate

Niagara Service Sector 2012-2013

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jobs x 1000 2012 2013

Niagara Service Industries

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Jobs x 1000 Trade Professional, scientific and technical services Accommodation and food services Linear ( Trade ) Linear ( Professional, scientific and technical services ) Linear ( Accommodation and food services)

Niagara Service Industries

Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013

5 10 15 20 25 30 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Jobs x 1000 Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Public administration Linear ( Health care and social assistance ) Linear ( Information, culture and recreation ) Linear ( Public administration )

slide-15
SLIDE 15

16/01/2014 15

Niagara Growth Occupations

Source: EMSI Industry Data, Labour Force Survey estimates, census data, 2013. $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jobs added since 2000 Median Hourly Income

Niagara’s industry

  • The vast majority of Niagara

businesses have less than ten employees

  • The service sector is the main source
  • f growth
  • Manufacturing has been in a steady

decline but has plateaued for the last few years

Niagara’s industry

  • Construction is doing well and offers

high-quality jobs

  • A lot of the growth in high-quality

jobs is in the public sector e.g. healthcare

  • The service sector workforce is

dominated by low-paid jobs in retail, food and accommodation services

Conclusions

slide-16
SLIDE 16

16/01/2014 16

What do we do?

  • Seek strategic planning opportunities
  • Continuous improvement in our

educational and training system

  • Work to support the most vulnerable

What do we do?

  • Seek leadership opportunities
  • Set targets, not forecasts.
  • Immediate, short-term solutions with

longer-term strategic investments.

Sector/Cluster Specialization

  • Based on local strengths, assets and

needs

  • Agriculture, BioTech: software and

hardware

  • Carbohydrate Valley: Industrial

Fermentation

Sector/Cluster Specialization

  • Innovation and Entrepreneurship

– Innovate Niagara – RIC Network – Entrepreneurship development

  • Close the web-based gap
  • Structural response: game changers
slide-17
SLIDE 17

16/01/2014 17

Early Conclusions

  • Increase full time opportunities for

women

  • Invest in young people’s literacy and

numeracy, not just STEM

  • Set targets for educational attainment

Early Conclusions

The speed of implementation, not the perfect strategy, is key to addressing the challenges and opportunities

Twitter: @NWPB Facebook: Niagara Workforce Planning Board Blog: www.niagaraworkforce.ca WWW: www.niagaraworkforceboard.ca